Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

I've never had a 20 incher in March, the month just doesn't have the juice

Ironically. The biggest snowstorm on record in Toledo is 22.0" on March 1, 1900. And Detroit 24.5" April 6, 1886

[roardog]

44 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ironically. The biggest snowstorm on record in Toledo is 22.0" on March 1, 1900. And Detroit 24.5" April 6, 1886

Spring snowstorms actually have the benefit of potentially much warmer air to  the south causing a stronger storm. It just has to have cold enough air to work with on the cold side which isn’t always a guarantee the deeper into March you go. 

[A-L-E-K]

Pure zzzzzs + East coast pattern, rough

[DocATL]

The Wisconsin-Illinois state line is a naturally occurring snow boundary. It’s wild.

[CheeselandSkies]

2 hours ago, DocATL said:

The Wisconsin-Illinois state line is a naturally occurring snow boundary. It’s wild.

Just like it is in the opposite direction for warm fronts/tornadic supercells, with very rare exceptions.

[Chicago Storm]

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Pure zzzzzs + East coast pattern, rough

looks active to me, and still not any sort of east coast pattern in sight.

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

looks active to me, and still not any sort of east coast pattern in sight.

Models will likely continue to struggle with the details too. Expect some good and bad busts in the near future.

[RemoteSenses]

I don’t trust the GFS at all this year - I’m looking at it as a total outlier entirely. ECM is really the only one worth watching IMO.

[mimillman]

Euro clipper fest

[A-L-E-K]

We got a low end mid week duster and a fantasy range overrunning setup to track, neither looks major but could be worse

[Baum]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

We got a low end mid week duster and a fantasy range overrunning setup to track, neither looks major but could be worse

Bears game mood flakes shot looking more likely 

[DocATL]

Dare I say east coast pattern?

[Baum]

7 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Dare I say east coast pattern?

Dare I say Florida panhandle pattern?

https://x.com/floridatropics1/status/2012502858013307241?s=61

[cyclone77]

zzzzzz

[Chicago916]

Definitely not zzzzz. Next week looks interesting for sure. High potential. (Peaks at latest gfs model lol is that a triple phaser?)

[Stevo6899]

Just now, Chicago916 said:

Definitely not zzzzz. Next week looks interesting for sure. High potential. 

People quickly forget how unreliable the models are past 72 hours. How strong the clippers and phasing will determine how north the potential for next weekend can go. Models struggle with phasing and clipper strengths so who knows.