December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

Yes we do, need a Friday thread, someone start it

Too soon.

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like the GFS/Euro/Ukmet try to tee up Dec 9th as well. This would coincide with the MJO entering Phase 8, the PNA shifting slightly positive, and the NAO shifting slightly negative as well. 

[Buddy1987]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm cautiously optimistic for an accum event down here. Trajectory and strength keeps the typical waa risk in the mid levels at bay. Surface temps look surprisingly good. Current cold rain event bucked the lead up dry trend we've been seeing for basically months. Ingredients are there for an efficient accumulater. Limited max potential though so 1-2" would be a reasonable expectation at this point but there's not a lot of wiggle room for mixing problems in my hood and those problems seem to find any way possible to show up no matter what the lead time is lol

Been a good while since I posted but have been following everyone in here. Won’t get my hopes up until we’re like 24 hrs til the event as the medium and long range lately is what nightmares are made of, from a weather enthusiast standpoint, where you get pumped and in comes the deflating moment. Anyhow Sunday into Monday offers an even greater potential for our neck of the woods. 

[mitchnick]

Hopefully we can score in this pattern before the warmup hits at the end of both the Eps and Gefs. Looks to cool off again post 360hrs, but who knows what kind of pattern we'll be given.

[Solution Man]

12 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Too soon.

Too late 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Too late 

In fairness we are 3 days from the event which is now solidly NAM range

[Solution Man]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

In fairness we are 3 days from the event which is now solidly NAM range

Concur

[winter_warlock]

LWX mentions the next 2 chances...

 

Model guidance is in relatively good agreement that a low amplitude
shortwave embedded in west-southwesterly flow aloft will track
across the Tennessee Valley toward the southern Mid-Atlantic during
the day on Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure will be in the process
of retreating offshore. While models are in agreement that this
general pattern will unfold, there are still some discrepancies with
respect to how far north precipitation will make it, and also what
the precipitation type will be. The majority of solutions have cold
air in place at the surface, which would favor wintry precipitation
(either a wintry mix or snow). However, there are some solutions
that show rain across southeastern portions of the forecast area.
Overall, precipitation totals should be on the lighter side.
Depending on the track of the system, a couple inches of snow or a
light wintry mix may be possible across portions of the forecast
area Friday afternoon into Friday night. We`ll continue to monitor
this system over the coming days.

Dry, but chilly conditions are expected across the area this
weekend. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 30s and
lower 40s, with low temperatures in the 20s. Forecast confidence
decreases significantly by Monday, with some solutions developing
an area of low pressure nearby as a shortwave trough moves
through aloft. Other solutions maintain dry conditions.

[SnowenOutThere]

Dont think the Monday wave is going to be as good as 12z sadly. Less consolidated so far. 

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Dont think the Monday wave is going to be as good as 12z sadly. Less consolidated so far. 

Gfs going back and forth, we got plenty of time for that one

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Dont think the Monday wave is going to be as good as 12z sadly. Less consolidated so far. 

It's all about the interaction out West around the hour 90-110 mark. We need the leftover energy in the far Southwest to aid in the development of our shortwave coming out of the NS. Looking between the 18z and 12z shows how 18z just wasn't able to pull everything together fully and left too much energy out. Ofc, the NS digging and whatnot matters as well but I'd really like to see the energy out west be pulled East more (though this probably won't be resolved until our Friday system goes by as it is interacting with that storm as well). 

18z

12z

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Gfs going back and forth, we got plenty of time for that one

Yep, need the Friday storm resolved first

[WE GOT HIM]

this is crazy

[Alfoman]

One of these shortwaves has to deliver a surprise eventually, right???