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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread


Torch Tiger
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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You seriously goging to answer it?. The prevailing thought was that it would get colder a bit later in the month, but I didn't see anyone claiming that it would be "warm"...

The usual suspects ( you know who they are)

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37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We just can't win lately...if there isn't blocking, it cuts...if there is, it shreds or sends it south.

I feel like too we haven't had "classic" blocking...but I think a big part of it too is blocking is much more beneficial for southern streams working up the coast. blocking with northern streams just results in one of two things, which you mentioned, cutting if the s/w is too strong and shredding the s/w or sending south if it is too weak.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I feel like too we haven't had "classic" blocking...but I think a big part of it too is blocking is much more beneficial for southern streams working up the coast. blocking with northern streams just results in one of two things, which you mentioned, cutting if the s/w is too strong and shredding the s/w or sending south if it is too weak.

..or our best storms from phases, god forbid....

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Bufkit isn't terribly impressive in terms of wind gust potential Friday. Very weak lapse rates present and a saturated profile. Sustained winds though looks solid...could be sustained 30-35 across the Cape. This isn't to say there is 40-50 mph gusts potential but we'll need convection and need to see some drying within some of the profiles. The typical elevated areas will gusts well

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Bufkit isn't terribly impressive in terms of wind gust potential Friday. Very weak lapse rates present and a saturated profile. Sustained winds though looks solid...could be sustained 30-35 across the Cape. This isn't to say there is 40-50 mph gusts potential but we'll need convection and need to see some drying within some of the profiles. The typical elevated areas will gusts well

9/10 times you can take the under on those clown gusts and be correct.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

9/10 times you can take the under on those clown gusts and be correct.

There is going to be lots of precipitation around which will hold back gusts overall. If we had little precip ahead of the main line and even got some cloud breaks...we would rip pretty good. This could happen locally, probably better shot towards interior eastern Mass. But I also think there is room for thunderstorms embedded within the line moving into far eastern CT, RI, eastern Mass and that will have to be watched.

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There is going to be lots of precipitation around which will hold back gusts overall. If we had little precip ahead of the main line and even got some cloud breaks...we would rip pretty good. This could happen locally, probably better shot towards interior eastern Mass. But I also think there is room for thunderstorms embedded within the line moving into far eastern CT, RI, eastern Mass and that will have to be watched.

Yeah any rain and meh for winds. 

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Bufkit isn't terribly impressive in terms of wind gust potential Friday. Very weak lapse rates present and a saturated profile. Sustained winds though looks solid...could be sustained 30-35 across the Cape. This isn't to say there is 40-50 mph gusts potential but we'll need convection and need to see some drying within some of the profiles. The typical elevated areas will gusts well

Rhode Island looks bumpy as well

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