December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[weatherwiz]

The real problem I think would be if the strong blocking persists. We would probably get chances as the block is materializing and then we'd want to hope for the block to relax or break down a bit and that could come with some chances. But if a big block materializes and becomes established...then we may be screwed 

[CoastalWx]

Will brings up a good point. With the models trying to torch January with a SE ridge, we’ll need that to persist. That stupid conus ridge isn’t lasting forever. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

21 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

oh i put you at 3.5" just based on my quick thinking from last storm you said 1 and the previous 2.5, so i got 3.5 but i can quickly fix that. I have a town overlay so i put everyone in the middle of the town unless i know exactly where they are. ill change it to 3.8

You have 9" in or near Hubbardston MA which is close to what I have measured (10).  (2 x 0.5", 1 x 2", 1 x 7").  Not sure if those are from my numbers.   Someone in Gardner (Subdude?) is at 12"  

[Damage In Tolland]

Hopefully something like the HRRR verifies https://x.com/dhtheweathernut/status/2001627717314449651?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You have 9" in or near Hubbardston MA which is close to what I have measured (10).  (2 x 0.5", 1 x 2", 1 x 7").  Not sure if those are from my numbers.   Someone in Gardner (Subdude?) is at 12"  

The 9" is Barre Falls Dam COOP which is in the northeast corner of Barre. 12" is westminster from Cocorahs. and 7.1" is also cocorahs, Gardner 1.4 SSW. I'd include more reports from people here but unfortunately we no longer have the New England Snow page from Kevin so there's very few from here unless i know before hand what they are. 

[CoastalWx]

Thats nice work @The 4 Seasons

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

oh i put you at 3.5" just based on my quick thinking from last storm you said 1 and the previous 2.5, so i got 3.5 but i can quickly fix that. I have a town overlay so i put everyone in the middle of the town unless i know exactly where they are. ill change it to 3.8

I got 1/4" from some squalls in between.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Will brings up a good point. With the models trying to torch January with a SE ridge, we’ll need that to persist. That stupid conus ridge isn’t lasting forever. 

What’s weird is the SE ridge is kind of displaced westward right now on weeklies…a little different than a few days ago…and the heights even further SE like near Bahamas/off SE coast are actually BN. Kind of weird…almost El Niño-ish. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What’s weird is the SE ridge is kind of displaced westward right now on weeklies…a little different than a few days ago…and the heights even further SE like near Bahamas/off SE coast are actually BN. Kind of weird…almost El Niño-ish. 

I feel a little better overall today vs a few days ago seeing that -NAO. It started to look a little dire with an overall +AO. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The 9" is Barre Falls Dam COOP which is in the northeast corner of Barre. 12" is westminster from Cocorahs. and 7.1" is also cocorahs, Gardner 1.4 SSW. I'd include more reports from people here but unfortunately we no longer have the New England Snow page from Kevin so there's very few from here unless i know before hand what they are. 

I appreciate the effort you have put in.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I appreciate the effort you have put in.  

You are very welcome 

[The 4 Seasons]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You are very welcome 

too early for 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It would probably be occluded....those flashy low pressures don't always equate to the prevailing assumption.

It was still strengthening at that point previous frame was 964mb.. but im sure it was about to max out

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

too early for 

Never too early .. especially when on PTO

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Never too early .. especially when on PTO

since youre off, maybe its time to update that sig, winter 18-19 is a little out of date

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big blocking would help out going into January imho. Most guidance keeps wanting -PNA and a SE ridge. If you overlay strong blocking, then it reduces the chances of cutters and torches. 
 

Lot of uncertainty though with the blocking. But it’s def been increasing on all guidance. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The real problem I think would be if the strong blocking persists. We would probably get chances as the block is materializing and then we'd want to hope for the block to relax or break down a bit and that could come with some chances. But if a big block materializes and becomes established...then we may be screwed 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

since youre off, maybe its time to update that sig, winter 18-19 is a little out of date

I’m only ever on here on phone . I don’t see any sigs. People actually still log on here on computers? It’s probably been 2019 since I last used a PC for here 

[Typhoon Tip]

heh...not sure how to use that 'multiquote' but  ha, nice to see the agreement among Mets there

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m only ever on here on phone . I don’t see any sigs. People actually still log on here on computers? It’s probably been 2019 since I last used a PC for here 

Explains why your forecasts have gone downhill  

[The 4 Seasons]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m only ever on here on phone . I don’t see any sigs. People actually still log on here on computers? It’s probably been 2019 since I last used a PC for here 

that makes sense, and thats why mobile sucks, watered down experience...but it's necessary sometimes. we've had this conversation before about 3 or 4 years ago pc vs. phone users

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Explains why your forecasts have gone downhill  

You must be referring to your flurries up to a coating  call for SNE on Sunday 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You must be referring to your flurries up to a coating  call for SNE on Sunday 

Well at least a coating did fall...and then another couple inches on top of it

[HoarfrostHubb]

I forgot about signatures... I had shut them off a while back.  Mine hadn't been updated since 2015! lol

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah that westward trend has put us from toucans, to shots of cold, to having room to dig these shortwaves and curve something up the coast at our latitude and a little blocking will help with that. I think I saw a fantasy run yesterday in the extended that retrograded at our latitude as well. Everyone up here starts getting anxiety now when the NAO starts getting too negative, but I feel like this may be a time we’d want it…unless everyone is happy with quick hitting light-mod events. 

We need to take our chances with the NAO in this hemispherical set up.  Its like going back that old girlfriend with the crazy eye who burned all your cloths in the street once, but is a demon in the sack.  She’s back and the only prospect.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I forgot about signatures... I had shut them off a while back.  Mine hadn't been updated since 2015! lol

115” of meh.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

115” of meh.

Well... I just deleted it...  Funny how I forget things like that

[WinterWolf]

I’m on Mobil all the time…and I see everybody’s avatar/picture..or whatever you call them. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh...not sure how to use that 'multiquote' but  ha, nice to see the agreement among Mets there

Just hit the + sign instead of quote, and you can gather as many as you would like.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No question this eclipses the  late 80's-early 90's stretch if this season sucks...they are like Brady and Mahomes for suckage spell GOATs right now....but this year would put 2020s ahead.

I don’t know Ray…it’s close but that period from 85-92 was absolutely horrid too. If this season sucks…it would be close imo, but I still think we’d need another one on top Of this to be even with that 85-92 stretch here.  Let’s hope we don’t have to go there.