December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[ORH_wxman]

06z euro looks pretty nice for 12/23. A solid 1-3” deal for a lot of folks. 

[The 4 Seasons]

First season to date snowfall maps. This is as of December 17th, 2025. Reports are from cocorahs, COOP, and official climo sites. Contours are based on these reports and NOHRSC Gridded Snowfall Analysis. These are by far the hardest maps to put together so ill be doing them monthly similar to last season. 

Updated**

 

[CoastalWx]

Op runs go insane with the blocking in early January. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

First season to date snowfall maps. This is as of December 17th, 2025. Reports are from cocorahs, COOP, and official climo sites. Contours are based on these reports and NOHRSC Gridded Snowfall Analysis. These are by far the hardest maps to put together so ill be doing them monthly similar to last season. 

Congrats Chatham and MVY. Never thought I’d say that in December lol.

[weatherwiz]

some violence for the Cape on the 6z HRRR

[jbenedet]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Op runs go insane with the blocking in early January. 

It matches the teleconnection forecast.

Not good.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, jbenedet said:

It matches the teleconnection forecast.

Not good.

I wouldn’t worry too much this far out. Just real interesting to see. That subtle shift west in the central Conus ridge hopefully helps to keep systems from shunting south.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

some violence for the Cape on the 6z HRRR

Cape will be inverted I think. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cape will be inverted I think. 

yeah soundings are quite inverted there. Looked like though there could be room for a line with thunder/lightning. Probably the only way to draw down any good gusts. 

[Damage In Tolland]

The big winds are about HFD SPD on east and inland.. away from the water 

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn’t worry too much this far out. Just real interesting to see. That subtle shift west in the central Conus ridge hopefully helps to keep systems from shunting south.

There’s a lot of support for that look. La Nina (Jan), the EPS and GEFS forecasts for the NAO teleconnection are also aligned for deeply negative. The op runs signaling similar. 
 

Start worrying.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Can we just get this 948mb low to verify

It would probably be occluded....those flashy low pressures don't always equate to the prevailing assumption.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Op runs go insane with the blocking in early January. 

Getting close to the point where I'm going to have to capitulate and adjust. I thought that signal may fade a bit, but it's becoming more emphatic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

First season to date snowfall maps. This is as of December 17th, 2025. Reports are from cocorahs, COOP, and official climo sites. Contours are based on these reports and NOHRSC Gridded Snowfall Analysis. These are by far the hardest maps to put together so ill be doing them monthly similar to last season. 

Taking the reigns from Will on that now that he's a family man haha. Close enough for me....I have 3.75" and am just west of that 3.6". Nice job.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

There’s a lot of support for that look. La Nina (Jan), the EPS and GEFS forecasts for the NAO teleconnection are also aligned for deeply negative. The op runs signaling similar. 
 

Start worrying.

That would send me right off the deep end....January 2011 worked out, but it seams like ever since deeply neg NAO has been just lights out around here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn’t worry too much this far out. Just real interesting to see. That subtle shift west in the central Conus ridge hopefully helps to keep systems from shunting south.

Yea, about as interesting to see as my first colonoscopy next month.

I will say something should work out soon.......it's getting to the point climowise where we are going to be destined for another shitty season if it doesn't snow significantly in short order, and I just don't envision that for this season.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, about as interesting to see as my first colonoscopy next month.

I will say something should work out soon.......it's getting to the point climowise where we are going to be destined for another shitty season if it doesn't snow significantly in short order, and I just don't envision that for this season.

You would think something would work out. 

[Cold Miser]

32 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

First season to date snowfall maps. This is as of December 17th, 2025. Reports are from cocorahs, COOP, and official climo sites. Contours are based on these reports and NOHRSC Gridded Snowfall Analysis. These are by far the hardest maps to put together so ill be doing them monthly similar to last season. 

You forget my measly 1.25.

[dendrite]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn’t worry too much this far out. Just real interesting to see. That subtle shift west in the central Conus ridge hopefully helps to keep systems from shunting south.

Yeah that westward trend has put us from toucans, to shots of cold, to having room to dig these shortwaves and curve something up the coast at our latitude and a little blocking will help with that. I think I saw a fantasy run yesterday in the extended that retrograded at our latitude as well. Everyone up here starts getting anxiety now when the NAO starts getting too negative, but I feel like this may be a time we’d want it…unless everyone is happy with quick hitting light-mod events. 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Enjoy the last day of snow today.  There's still about 4"......bare lawn tomorrow afternoon.  At least we have this.

 

Friday

Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then rain likely. High near 56. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

The 1"+ that I got on Sunday managed to linger on into today.  
 

At least it was a holiday feel for a few days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You would think something would work out. 

No question this eclipses the  late 80's-early 90's stretch if this season sucks...they are like Brady and Mahomes for suckage spell GOATs right now....but this year would put 2020s ahead.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You would think something would work out. 

Let’s get a Jan 2016 repeat 

[The 4 Seasons]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Taking the reigns from Will on that now that he's a family man haha. Close enough for me....I have 3.75" and am just west of that 3.6". Nice job.

oh i put you at 3.5" just based on my quick thinking from last storm you said 1 and the previous 2.5, so i got 3.5 but i can quickly fix that. I have a town overlay so i put everyone in the middle of the town unless i know exactly where they are. ill change it to 3.8

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

The 1"+ that I got on Sunday managed to linger on into today.  

Do you have to let it?

 

[Kitz Craver]

Just took a look at the 0z EURO, that’s a pretty wild run

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah that westward trend has put us from toucans, to shots of cold, to having room to dig these shortwaves and curve something up the coast at our latitude and a little blocking will help with that. I think I saw a fantasy run yesterday in the extended that retrograded at our latitude as well. Everyone up here starts getting anxiety now when the NAO starts getting too negative, but I feel like this may be a time we’d want it…unless everyone is happy with quick hitting light-mod events. 

one of the only things that can really alleviate a shit Pacific with -WPO is a strong west based -NAO… just shunts everything west and changes the Pacific alignment 

[The 4 Seasons]

7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

You forget my measly 1.25.

doesnt fit, got 1.7" already in killingly from cocorahs so youll have to settle for that lmao

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Taking the reigns from Will on that now that he's a family man haha. Close enough for me....I have 3.75" and am just west of that 3.6". Nice job.

updated

[weatherwiz]

I love the euro op phasing of a TPV piece with southern stream energy across the Carolinas towards the end of the run lol

[ORH_wxman]

Big blocking would help out going into January imho. Most guidance keeps wanting -PNA and a SE ridge. If you overlay strong blocking, then it reduces the chances of cutters and torches. 
 

Lot of uncertainty though with the blocking. But it’s def been increasing on all guidance. 

[CoastalWx]

Meanwhile euro had a nice SWFE. I’d hit it.