December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

You seriously asking me that question ? 

You seriously goging to answer it?. The prevailing thought was that it would get colder a bit later in the month, but I didn't see anyone claiming that it would be "warm"...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

you didn't get any from the last event?

Correct

[Damage In Tolland]

Don’t sleep on the Tuesday sneaky snower 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m still waiting for any blocking to help us here…lately it’s been hurting us rather than helping. Let’s hope this time it can be our Allie. 

We just can't win lately...if there isn't blocking, it cuts...if there is, it shreds or sends it south.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t sleep on the Tuesday sneaky snower 

Damage?  Soueaster 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You seriously goging to answer it?. The prevailing thought was that it would get colder a bit later in the month, but I didn't see anyone claiming that it would be "warm"...

The usual suspects ( you know who they are)

[MJO812]

Timber

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Damage?  Soueaster 

Yeah it’s looked wild for days . I’ve been watching this since last weekend and have been waiting for models to catchup .  This one’s a beast 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah it’s looked wild for days . I’ve been watching this since last weekend and have been waiting for models to catchup .  This one’s a beast 

Inversion could break with those squalls. 

[weatherwiz]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We just can't win lately...if there isn't blocking, it cuts...if there is, it shreds or sends it south.

I feel like too we haven't had "classic" blocking...but I think a big part of it too is blocking is much more beneficial for southern streams working up the coast. blocking with northern streams just results in one of two things, which you mentioned, cutting if the s/w is too strong and shredding the s/w or sending south if it is too weak.

[Spanks45]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Timber

timber goes the trough in the west.....I feel like we have seen this before and know how it ends, doesn't mean it won't snow but sure does make it difficult

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I feel like too we haven't had "classic" blocking...but I think a big part of it too is blocking is much more beneficial for southern streams working up the coast. blocking with northern streams just results in one of two things, which you mentioned, cutting if the s/w is too strong and shredding the s/w or sending south if it is too weak.

..or our best storms from phases, god forbid....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

timber goes the trough in the west.....I feel like we have seen this before and know how it ends, doesn't mean it won't snow but sure does make it difficult

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

..or our best storms from phases, god forbid....

They’re phasing, just 300 miles to our west and east.  

[weatherwiz]

Bufkit isn't terribly impressive in terms of wind gust potential Friday. Very weak lapse rates present and a saturated profile. Sustained winds though looks solid...could be sustained 30-35 across the Cape. This isn't to say there is 40-50 mph gusts potential but we'll need convection and need to see some drying within some of the profiles. The typical elevated areas will gusts well

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Bufkit isn't terribly impressive in terms of wind gust potential Friday. Very weak lapse rates present and a saturated profile. Sustained winds though looks solid...could be sustained 30-35 across the Cape. This isn't to say there is 40-50 mph gusts potential but we'll need convection and need to see some drying within some of the profiles. The typical elevated areas will gusts well

9/10 times you can take the under on those clown gusts and be correct.

[SouthCoastMA]

Id like to see the Euro AI look better again for 24th/25th. AI ensembles look any different?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

9/10 times you can take the under on those clown gusts and be correct.

There is going to be lots of precipitation around which will hold back gusts overall. If we had little precip ahead of the main line and even got some cloud breaks...we would rip pretty good. This could happen locally, probably better shot towards interior eastern Mass. But I also think there is room for thunderstorms embedded within the line moving into far eastern CT, RI, eastern Mass and that will have to be watched.

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS is a bit better, GEFS look worse.....a lot of chaos post 10 days, might be something there in the 10-12 day range with the brief spike in PNA, dip in the NAO?

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There is going to be lots of precipitation around which will hold back gusts overall. If we had little precip ahead of the main line and even got some cloud breaks...we would rip pretty good. This could happen locally, probably better shot towards interior eastern Mass. But I also think there is room for thunderstorms embedded within the line moving into far eastern CT, RI, eastern Mass and that will have to be watched.

Yeah any rain and meh for winds. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Id like to see the Euro AI look better again for 24th/25th. AI ensembles look any different?

6z AI sucked, but haven’t looked at ensembles. 

[CoastalWx]

AI ensemble sucked too lol.

[CoastalWx]

Oh well. There’s always next year. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Bufkit isn't terribly impressive in terms of wind gust potential Friday. Very weak lapse rates present and a saturated profile. Sustained winds though looks solid...could be sustained 30-35 across the Cape. This isn't to say there is 40-50 mph gusts potential but we'll need convection and need to see some drying within some of the profiles. The typical elevated areas will gusts well

Rhode Island looks bumpy as well

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

AI ensemble sucked too lol.

"I'll be back"

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

"I'll be back"

 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Rhode Island looks bumpy as well

Sure does. in fact, some of the greatest gust potential was on PVD sounding lol. 

[CoastalWx]

Denver is like 65-70 for a week lol. Wow.

[CoastalWx]

Imagine Christmas on the front range eating outside with windows open. Totally normal.

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

AI ensemble sucked too lol.

if its marginal around here, I think we all know which direction this is going......