495weatherguy Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 6 minutes ago, North and West said: Isn’t that a little melodramatic? Not saying you’re wrong, but I think a lot of people would have lost their minds here if they were around for a lot of the 1990s outside of two fun winters. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. . I agree with this. You remember the 70’s and 80’s on LI? I remember cod and dry. Not snow like we got 2000-2018. 1996 was special because it truly was a one off on LI. Snow was always going “north and west “. Countless times predicted snow became cold rain. Many different components need to come together in order for it to snow on LI 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago I agree with this. You remember the 70’s and 80’s on LI? I remember cod and dry. Not snow like we got 2000-2018. 1996 was special because it truly was a one off on LI. Snow was always going “north and west “. Countless times predicted snow became cold rain. Many different components need to come together in order for it to snow on LI Same in N.J. if you weren’t in Sussex, hence my name!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 52 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I agree with this. You remember the 70’s and 80’s on LI? I remember cod and dry. Not snow like we got 2000-2018. 1996 was special because it truly was a one off on LI. Snow was always going “north and west “. Countless times predicted snow became cold rain. Many different components need to come together in order for it to snow on LI Snow, in general, is a miracle in the greater NYC metropolitan area... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Snow, in general, is a miracle in the greater NYC metropolitan area... I wouldn’t say it’s a miracle. We don’t live in the Carolinas. We average in the mid 20s inches per winter even right on the coast. We were due for a significant regression after the bonanza 2000-18 period but it’s become a lot harder to get the 2-4” type clippers and front end to rain events in the last few years as well. Bluewave and others have pointed out the background changes that have taken place that have made even fairly minor snow events less common. Even back during the bonanza years we lucked out with the big snow events that pushed us over the long term average. Without the minor events, we totally strike out and end well below average for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said: I agree with this. You remember the 70’s and 80’s on LI? I remember cod and dry. Not snow like we got 2000-2018. 1996 was special because it truly was a one off on LI. Snow was always going “north and west “. Countless times predicted snow became cold rain. Many different components need to come together in order for it to snow on LI During the 1970s and 1980s NYC averaged around 6.2”more of snow than we have over the last 7 seasons and ISP 8.0” more. We didn’t have to rely exclusively on KU NESIS events back then like we do now to get over 20” of snow on the season. We used to get snowy clippers and SWFEs. Plus the colder climate allowed for heavier snows on the front end before mixing became an issue. We never experienced a climate before that was so challenging to get over 20” from EWR to NYC and ISP. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.9 2.3 3.7 6.4 1.6 T 14.9 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 12.9 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.2 2.2 7.9 7.6 2.7 0.6 21.1 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1 1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 21.5 T 0.8 27.2 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.8 0.4 0.7 9.6 24.6 1980-1981 0.0 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 0.0 19.4 1979-1980 T 0.0 3.5 2.0 2.7 4.6 T 12.8 1978-1979 0.0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 29.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 1976-1977 0.0 T 5.1 13.0 5.8 0.6 T 24.5 1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3 1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5 1972-1973 T T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5 1969-1970 0.0 T 6.8 8.4 6.4 4.0 T 25.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.6 2.1 6.0 7.1 1.0 T 16.8 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.7 6.9 0.0 0.0 11.7 2023-2024 0.0 T T 3.1 7.8 0.0 0.0 10.9 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 T 3.0 1.6 0.0 5.0 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.3 3.3 8.8 8.5 3.0 1.0 24.8 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 19.0 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 4.2 10.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 19.5 1986-1987 0.0 T 3.4 8.8 8.6 1.7 0.0 22.5 1985-1986 0.0 T 2.1 2.6 10.4 0.1 T 15.2 1984-1985 0.0 T 4.7 13.5 8.7 T T 26.9 1983-1984 0.0 T 2.6 11.9 T 13.0 0.0 27.5 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.5 26.1 T 1.1 31.9 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 1.0 18.1 0.3 T 16.0 35.4 1980-1981 0.0 T 0.5 13.2 T 7.1 0.0 20.8 1979-1980 T 0.0 1.5 4.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 9.0 1978-1979 0.0 4.0 T 6.9 17.2 T T 28.1 1977-1978 0.0 0.8 0.2 27.7 28.9 10.4 T 68.0 1976-1977 0.0 T 6.2 11.2 6.6 4.0 0.0 28.0 1975-1976 0.0 T 11.0 7.8 7.5 3.9 0.0 30.2 1974-1975 0.0 0.5 T 1.8 11.0 1.2 T 14.5 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 T 9.0 17.0 8.0 T 34.0 1972-1973 T 0.0 T 1.5 3.0 T T 4.5 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.1 12.5 1.0 T 15.6 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.3 2.0 1.0 2.5 18.9 1969-1970 0.0 T 12.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 T 27.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, North and West said: Isn’t that a little melodramatic? Not saying you’re wrong, but I think a lot of people would have lost their minds here if they were around for a lot of the 1990s outside of two fun winters. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. . 1 hour ago, North and West said: Isn’t that a little melodramatic? Not saying you’re wrong, but I think a lot of people would have lost their minds here if they were around for a lot of the 1990s outside of two fun winters. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. . The 80s were considered worse than the 90s depending on point of view. The 90s had more above average snowfall winters (2) compared to the 80s (1), however, the 90s were warmer. The 1970s were cold but only 2 above average snowfall winters (one was just 2 inches above average). Please be cautious when listening to posters writing in definitives. The posters that just give the current facts statistics and seasonal opinions are the most reliable IMO. There was a reason people always worried about the return of the 1980s (cold dry, warm wet) pattern during the good stretch. Now we are in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago LOL high on top of NYC 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said: I agree with this. You remember the 70’s and 80’s on LI? I remember cod and dry. Not snow like we got 2000-2018. 1996 was special because it truly was a one off on LI. Snow was always going “north and west “. Countless times predicted snow became cold rain. Many different components need to come together in order for it to snow on LI 1,000% Also I remember a LOT of warm winter months in the 80s. Some posters make it sound like the 80s were an arctic tundra. The 70s were very cold. Just not much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 28 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Snow, in general, is a miracle in the greater NYC metropolitan area... Yup. 1955 to 1969 and 2000 through 2018 skewed perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LOL high on top of NYC The Delmarva keeps raking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The Delmarva keeps raking. We cant catch a break 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 34 / 25 cloudy. Continues to look overall colder to much below normal at times through mid month. Sunday strom stay mainly south and east of the area outside SNJ perhaps even to parts of Monmouth with snow showers/light snow. Perhaps the coldest day of the next 7-10 tomrroow will be sub freezing for some and then again on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Records: Highs: EWR: 75 (1998) NYC: 74 (1998) LGA: 74 (1998) JFK: 70 (1998) Lows: EWR: 9 (1940) NYC: 10 (1882) LGA: 12 (1940) JFK: 15 (1966) Historical: 1786 - The first of two great early December storms began. The storm produced 18 inches of snow at Morristown NJ, and twenty inches of snow at New Haven CT. It also resulted in high tides at Nantucket which did great damage. (David Ludlum) 1886: Heavy snow fell on parts of the South and southern Appalachians through the 6th. Montgomery, AL recorded their greatest snow on record as 11 inches fell. An amazing 33 inches fell at Asheville, NC and 25 inches fell at Rome, GA. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1952: The month of December started off with chilly temperatures in London. This cold resulted in Londoners to burn more coal to heat up their homes. Then on December 5, a high pressure settled over the Thames River causing a dense layer of smog to develop. The smog became so thick and dense by December 7 that virtually no sunlight was seen in London. Most conservative estimates place the death toll at 4,000, with some estimating the smog killed as many as 8,000 individuals. 1953: An ice storm occurred in the Southeast, MN. 2 inches of ice formed on telephone wires. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1957: Early season snow; 11 inches DC, 8 inches Baltimore, 14 inches Loudoun Co. A weak wave of low pressure moves east from Kentucky to the Atlantic Ocean where warm Gulf Stream waters caused very rapid development. Snow rapidly spread throughout the metropolitan area during the morning of the 4th and some became heavy. The blinding snow continued into the afternoon and finally ended during the evening, with 11.4 inches of snow measured at National Airport. That was the heaviest snowfall at National Airport since the spring snowstorm of March 1942. Up to 14 inches was reported in the suburbs. Most of the snowfall took place with temperatures hovering at or near 32 degrees Fahrenheit. (p. 66 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) 1964: A big ice storm was in progress across the Northeast. Ice accumulated as much as an inch and a half thick in some places in Massachusetts and eastern New York. Over 80,000 homes were without power after the storm. Some customers did not get their power back for five days. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1972 - Winds gusting to 70 mph sent the temperature at Livingston, MT, plunging from 52 degrees to 18 degrees in just twenty minutes. (The Weather Channel) 1973: Southwest Iowa was in the midst of experiencing one of their worst winter storms in history. A large number of power lines and trees were downed due to ice and snow causing power outages lasting several days. Travel was nearly impossible and most schools closed for two days. Several towers were also toppled in Hamilton and Hardin Counties. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1982 - The temperature in New York City's Central Park reached 72 degrees to establish a then record high for December. The month as a whole was also the warmest of record. (The Weather Channel) 1982: A ridge of upper level high pressure off the southeast coast pumped warm south to southwesterly winds from the Tennessee Valley to New England bringing record high temperatures. Other daily record highs included: Richmond, VA: 77 °F, Cape Hatteras, NC: 76 °F, Roanoke, VA: 76 °F, Charleston, WV: 76 °F, Washington, DC: 75 °F, Lynchburg, VA: 75 °F, Baltimore, MD: 74 °F, Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 74 °F, Hartford, CT: 71 °F, Wallops Island, VA: 71 °F, Elkins, WV: 70 °F, Portland, ME: 69 °F (broke previous record by 12 degrees), and Bridgeport, CT: 61 °F.(Ref. The Weather Channel) Boston, Massachusetts had a 57 °F the warmest low temperature for the month of December. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1987 - A cold front crossing the Pacific Coast Region brought high winds and heavy rain to California. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 55 mph at Newport Beach CA, and Mount Wilson CA was drenched with 2.17 inches of rain in six hours. Gale force winds prevailed along the Northern Pacific Coast, and winds in the Tehachapis Mountains of southern California gusted to 60 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Gale force winds continued to usher cold arctic air into the northeastern U.S. Winds gusted to 65 mph at Windsor Locks CT. Up to a foot of snow blanketed the higher elevations of Vermont. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Seventeen cities in the eastern U.S., including nine in Florida, reported record low temperatures for the date. Lakeland FL reported a record low of 31 degrees, and Watertown NY was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 20 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: The western and southwestern U.S. was in the middle of a major four day winter storm. Flagstaff, AZ was buried under 23 inches of snow and 22 inches piled up at Sandia Peak, NM.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Up to six inches of rain was reported in some mountain locations of southern California with a half to two inches in the valleys. Local flooding, mud slides, standing water, and road closures resulted. Six inches to two feet of snow fell in the higher elevations in the mountains. Flooding in Tijuana, Mexico killed four and left hundreds homeless. Two days earlier, the same storm produced two F1 tornadoes near Santa Rosa, CA. The storm moved out in to the southern Plains during the late afternoon/early evening hours lingering through the 5th killing at least four people. The storm brought 4 to 9 inches of snow to northwest and north-central Oklahoma, and 1 to 4 inches of snow and sleet to much of central Oklahoma. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain fell over a large part of northeast Oklahoma. Behind the cold front and storm, bitterly cold temperatures were felt from the northern Rockies to the Pacific Northwest. Record low temperatures for the date included: West Yellowstone, MT: -36 °F, Rawlins, WY: -26 °F, Pocatello, ID: -22 °F, Laramie, WY: -20 °F, Ennis, MT: -17 °F, Elk Mountain, MT: -12 °F, Scottsbluff, NE: -10 °F, Centennial, MT: -10 °F, Burns, OR: -7 °F, Salt Lake City, UT: 3 °F and Olympia, WA: 19 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1994: Widespread rainfall of 3 to 7 inches, with a maximum of 14.33 inches was measured across east Palm Beach County, Florida during a 24-hour period. Roadways were flooded and minor water damage was reported to some businesses in Delray Beach and Boca Raton. The combination of heavy rains and low astronomical tides caused many sea walls along canals to collapse. Sugar cane harvesting was halted due to the flooding of fields. A few record highs were set in Florida including: Fort Myers, FL: 87 °F, Tampa, FL: 86 °F and Vero Beach, FL: 84 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: A persistent westerly flow aloft produced high winds across and near the Front Range Foothills in Colorado. Several locations reported hurricane force wind gusts of 100 to 120 mph. The high winds downed trees and power lines, blew a semi truck over and caused structural damage. Some of the highest winds gusts included: Blackhawk: estimated at 120 mph, Aspen Springs: 115 mph, Eldora Ski Resort: 100 mph, Atop Shanahan Ridge near Boulder: 75 mph, Conifer: 74 mph and 71 mph at the Rocky Flats Environmental Test Facility. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1998: An unseasonable upper level ridge extended from off the southeast coast across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico bringing record high temperatures from the Plains to the East Coast. The temperature soared to 76 °F at Washington, DC to establish a new all-time December high temperature record. The record was to be short-lived, however, as the temperature would top out at 78 °F on the 6th and 79 °F on the 7th. Other daily record highs for the date included: Richmond, VA: 77 °F-Tied, Atlanta, GA: 76 °F, Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 75 °F, Athens, GA: 75 °F-Tied, Lynchburg, VA: 75 °F-Tied, New York (Central Park), NY: 74 °F, Atlantic City, NJ: 73 °F, Bridgeport, CT: 72 °F (broke previous record by 11 degrees), Hartford, CT: 71 °F, Boston, MA: 70 °F, Chicago, IL: 66 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx.- Many additional temperatures given at this link) 2002 - An early season winter storm brought an expansive shield of snow and ice through much of the eastern U.S., from the lower Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians and into the Northeast. Snow accumulations of 4-8 inches were common along the northern edge of the precipitation shield, while a significant accrual of glaze occurred in the Carolinas. The storm caused at least 17 fatalities, mostly from traffic accidents (CNN). In the Carolinas, electric utilities provider Duke Power characterized the ice storm as the worst in the company's history, with 1.2 million customers or nearly half its entire customer base without power on the morning of the 5th. This surpassed electrical outages inflicted by Hurricane Hugo as it swept through the central Carolinas in September 1989. The Baltimore-Washington area was under Winter Storm Watches as low pressure developed along a stalled front across the Gulf Coast that moved through two days before. Low pressure moved from the Louisiana coast on the 4th to off the Carolina coast on the 5th. When it was over BWI/Marshall had picked up 7.4 inches, 6.2 inches at Dulles Airport in Sterling, VA and 6.1 inches at National airport in Washington, DC. An early season winter storm brought an expansive shield of snow and ice through much of the eastern U.S., from the lower Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians and into the Northeast. Snow accumulations of 4-8 inches were common along the northern edge of the precipitation shield, while a significant accrual of glaze occurred in the Carolinas. The storm caused at least 17 fatalities, mostly from traffic accidents (CNN). In the Carolinas, electric utilities provider Duke Power characterized the ice storm as the worst in the company's history, with 1.2 million customers or nearly half its entire customer base without power on the morning of the 5th. This surpassed electrical outages inflicted by Hurricane Hugo as it swept through the central Carolinas in September 1989. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2009: SE TX received its earliest snow of record. Houston officially reported 1.0 inch (old record: 1.4 inches on 12/10/2008 and a trace on 12/10/1944). 4 inches in Lake City and Boling were the greatest amounts reported; Bay City reported 2.0 inches while 0.2 inches was reported in Victoria. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Thanks @SACRUS for your daily local climo updates and historical summary. Appreciated always. The historical summary brings back some nice memories from time to time. The 1989 stat from today brings back memories of the bitter cold December that was getting underway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Most guidance shifted east with the notoriously fickle inverted trof for Saturday. Can't rule out flurries or snow showers now through Saturday but hard to envision any accumulation ATM. Medium-range models show a parade of potential "threats" but nothing tangible yet. The longwave flow is broadly supportive of wintry threats. The Sun-Mon clipper is first up. Feels like winter... especially in areas with a little snow cover (not far NW of NYC as seen on satellite). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago Thinking Decembers of old were so much colder and snowier is a classic example of rosy retrospection. Yes it used to be colder. If you're 120 years old you might just barely remember when they used to harvest thick blocks of ice on Rockland Lake near Nyack. And yes, we haven't had any huge snowstorms over the past few winters. But as of December 4, this has been a pretty typical fall and winter. We haven't had any major warmups and there are none currently on mid-range guidance. It will be cold enough to snow for much of the next week (as currently modeled) and if we get a little luck, it just might snow. NYC doesn't average a ton of snow in December. The 70s, 80s, and 90s did not feature a lot of snowy Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 46 minutes ago Share Posted 46 minutes ago 17 minutes ago, eduggs said: Most guidance shifted east with the notoriously fickle inverted trof for Saturday. Can't rule out flurries or snow showers now through Saturday but hard to envision any accumulation ATM. Medium-range models show a parade of potential "threats" but nothing tangible yet. The longwave flow is broadly supportive of wintry threats. The Sun-Mon clipper is first up. Feels like winter... especially in areas with a little snow cover (not far NW of NYC as seen on satellite). I think Dec in the city averages 2 inches of snow in Dec and not much more out here something like 3 inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago Snow squall warnings currently posted in parts of CNY and NPA. The squalls probably won't hold together as the front slides southward through our area, but there's a small chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I think Dec in the city averages 2 inches of snow in Dec and not much more out here something like 3 inches or so. I think its 5 in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted 38 minutes ago Share Posted 38 minutes ago One of the reasons why it's so easy to be pessimistic is because of Jan-Feb 2025 and Dec 2022. Those patterns, observed from a far, would have been a gangbusters wintry weather period in the 2010s. But it just didn't materialize. In fact in December 2022, hardly any of us saw even 1 flake of snow. We've seen numerous good patterns (not just out in model fantasy land, but actually experiencing the good patterns) since winter 2019 that just failed to materialize winter weather events. Sure, those patterns produced cold, and sometimes, serious cold. But almost nothing came of those time periods. If that didn't happen, I think we would all feel more comfortable about this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 35 minutes ago Share Posted 35 minutes ago The 12z GFS has shifted a little south and sharper aloft for the Sun-Mon clipper. Looks pretty nice for CNY and NE. Even gets some snow into or close to the City. The shortwave track is pretty far north but the 12z GFS is closest yet to something interesting in that time period. The GFS is not entirely on its own either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 28 minutes ago Share Posted 28 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: One of the reasons why it's so easy to be pessimistic is because of Jan-Feb 2025 and Dec 2022. Those patterns, observed from a far, would have been a gangbusters wintry weather period in the 2010s. But it just didn't materialize. In fact in December 2022, hardly any of us saw even 1 flake of snow. We've seen numerous good patterns (not just out in model fantasy land, but actually experiencing the good patterns) since winter 2019 that just failed to materialize winter weather events. Sure, those patterns produced cold, and sometimes, serious cold. But almost nothing came of those time periods. If that didn't happen, I think we would all feel more comfortable about this month. IMO you have been traumatized by repeated cycles of expectation/hype followed by failure/disappointment. Those "patterns" you speak of were imaginary constructs created by weather hobbyists in an era of 4 times per day models run out to 16 days. Models and certainly meteorologists cannot accurately predict regional weather out past 10 days. So don't be fooled. In the 90s we had a handful of short range models out to 2 or 3 days and a handful of medium range models out to 5 or 7 days. They ran twice a day. People didn't pretend to "see" favorable patterns way out in fantasy range. And hobbyists weren't therefore disappointed by not realizing the imagined potential. It is always hard to get snowstorms near NYC. A lot has to go right for it to happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 20 minutes ago Share Posted 20 minutes ago Random observation, but it's been a snowy week in Albany and the upper Hudson Valley. Yes that's far outside our region, but not typically a very snowy area. They got into intense lake effect snow last Fri for several hours then warning snows on Tue and now arctic snow squalls incoming. Hopefully we can spread that love a little further south down the Hudson over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted 8 minutes ago Share Posted 8 minutes ago 11 minutes ago, eduggs said: Random observation, but it's been a snowy week in Albany and the upper Hudson Valley. Yes that's far outside our region, but not typically a very snowy area. They got into intense lake effect snow last Fri for several hours then warning snows on Tue and now arctic snow squalls incoming. Hopefully we can spread that love a little further south down the Hudson over the next few weeks. in albs for the next month. can confirm deep winter vibes up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 7 minutes ago Share Posted 7 minutes ago 3 hours ago, bluewave said: During the 1970s and 1980s NYC averaged around 6.2”more of snow than we have over the last 7 seasons and ISP 8.0” more. We didn’t have to rely exclusively on KU NESIS events back then like we do now to get over 20” of snow on the season. We used to get snowy clippers and SWFEs. Plus the colder climate allowed for heavier snows on the front end before mixing became an issue. 100% I thought the winters sucked because we never got snow days (except for 1978) and precious few big snows, but I think we had more days with snow on the ground, the ponds were safe for skating, etc. Even with changeovers, more of them had snow remaining after it refroze than has been the case this century. Not to say that there haven't always been some epic washouts, but I remember some of those genuinely sucky winters as being more wintry, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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