7PM Wed 11/5-7AM Thu 11/6 wind event with embedded fairly widespread 3 hour period of gusts 45MPH+...isolated max 60

[wdrag]

Please follow whatever NWS OKX PHI ALY and BOX issues on the coming Wednesday night wind and tides.

From our subforum standpoint have tagged wind damage for Wednesday night's brief but significant wind event associated with a 55-65KT 850 MB Cold Air Advection jet overhead.

No guarantees,  so the worst case 12z/4 HRRR and NAM suite max wind gusts should be 5 MPH too high but nevertheless, we should see more power outages than this morning (attached), and I expect at least a few night time -Thursday morning detours travel delays due to downed tree branches especially ridges and through NYS-CT. This will impact air travel for arrival departures Wednesday evening possibly into Thursday morning. 

Lapse rates look unstable for a few hours Wednesday evening up to at least 900MB, with strong subsidence drying in the wake of the Wednesday evening cold frontal passage adding to momentum transfer.   

A 12 hour 500MB HFC of over 150M amplifies in its east-southeast trek across NYS into New England Wednesday evening, briefly increasing the nw 850MB jet behind it to 65 kt or a bit higher.

PA/NJ look to be on the southern fringe of the greatest impact which should be NYS and New England. 

It's an early call so no guarantees but I think its worth an eventual wind Watch or Advisory.   I expect at least half the airports in the NYC metro area to hit at least 40 kt, possibly reaching 50 KT? 

Wind gust potential diminishes rapidly in our NYC subforum area by dawn Thursday. 

BLOWOUT Tide Thursday morning?: There is a chance that parts of the east facing coasts at just after midnight Thursday morning's LOW tide cycle will see a blow out tide less than -1.6' MLLW because of this brief period of wnw wind. 

Added HRRR max gusts at 10P/5 and 1A/6, the 12z/4 FOUS with my own personal trigger of 27KT BL wind as a threshold of wind event concerns, the 844AM today power outages with the relatively light sub 40KT gusts.  Then  I added the 3K NAM sampler max wind gusts, the more conservative Blend Of Models wind gust forecast and the the EPS marginal advisory wind gust modeled prediction. 1058A/4

 

 

[Brian5671]

Would think at minimum an advisory for the entire CWA

[FPizz]

Had a few gusts in the lower to mid-30s already

[uofmiami]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Had a few gusts in the lower to mid-30s already

37 mph in Muttontown already & 31 mph in Syosset.  

[SnowGoose69]

Good thing peak winds at 900-925 occur when its dark, if this came through 12-18 hours later I think some gusts over 50 would be possible.

[Brian5671]

High wind watch out for tomorrow PM for all the area

[Stormlover74]

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeastern New Jersey, and southeastern New York.

[uofmiami]

25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeastern New Jersey, and southeastern New York.

9pm tomorrow night until 8 am on Thursday morning.  Wish they put the exact timeframe in the headline, it's only under the hazardous weather conditions in the point & click.

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

9pm tomorrow night until 8 am on Thursday morning.  Wish they put the exact timeframe in the headline, it's only under the hazardous weather conditions in the point & click.

[Krs4Lfe]

32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeastern New Jersey, and southeastern New York.

I would assume that gets knocked down to wind advisory. Usually the models are overblown with wind gusts *no pun intended*. Still, it's something interesting to track anyway.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I would assume that gets knocked down to wind advisory. Usually the models are overblown with wind gusts *no pun intended*. Still, it's something interesting to track anyway.

925 winds for the metro are 44-49kts from 03-11z or so, sustained on MOS is around 30...if this was day time I'd be worried about mixing to 900 or 875 with gusts of 50kts but I think we might be only 42-44

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I would assume that gets knocked down to wind advisory. Usually the models are overblown with wind gusts *no pun intended*. Still, it's something interesting to track anyway.

Very true.    Although this one seems to have a little more teeth.   Also looks like the strongest winds are in a small 2-3 hr window.

[uofmiami]

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

[Krs4Lfe]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Very true.    Although this one seems to have a little more teeth.   Also looks like the strongest winds are in a small 2-3 hr window.

It's interesting because usually our strongest winds come during storms, this one will have almost no precip for our entire area. I remember Jan 2022, there was a gust to 60 in NYC from that storm that was the big blizzard in great lakes and appalachia but just one inch of snow to rain here and then strong winds and dry slot. Always cool to track high winds, but very few times we actually get high wind warning level winds (60+ mph). Early March 2018 was wild, 65 mph gusts over here. I can only think of a handful of 60+ (non severe and no tropical) events here in NYC over the past decade. 

[steve392]

This is just winds?  No precip? 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, steve392 said:

This is just winds?  No precip? 

Yeah the system is moisture starved-most of it is well north

[steve392]

58 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah the system is moisture starved-most of it is well north

Thanks.  Gunna make sure my garbage cans are tied up. 

[wdrag]

No changes from my view on the coming wind event tonight. Please continue to follow NWS advisories-warnings.  I'll try and post info later this evening.

May slightly update the thread headline at 5PM but otherwise all damage OBS in this thread tonight-thanks. Overall trend since yesterday, imo is wind advisory 40-45 kt gusts for 1-3 hours, except warning 50 KT ridges and eastern LI. 

[Stormlover74]

Surprised its still a high wind watch and not a warning since we're less than 12 hours out ( other areas are under a wind advisory)

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Surprised its still a high wind watch and not a warning since we're less than 12 hours out ( other areas are under a wind advisory)

Given the models backing down I think alot will convert to an advisory...already down to an advisory for northern sections of the CWA

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Given the models backing down I think alot will convert to an advisory...already down to an advisory for northern sections of the CWA

Models had the low intensifying at a faster pace earlier as it passed through. I'm guessing it'll be sub advisory for most for like 1-2hrs, nothing noteworthy. 

[Sundog]

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Given the models backing down I think alot will convert to an advisory...already down to an advisory for northern sections of the CWA

Good, high winds are useless

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models had the low intensifying at a faster pace earlier as it passed through. I'm guessing it'll be sub advisory for most for like 1-2hrs, nothing noteworthy. 

also-west winds-trees are more used to west winds vs east winds and some trees are now bare at least around here-isolated issues IMO with this event

[jm1220]

As others pointed out the models seem to be backing down and it should be an advisory event. A lot of leaves have already come off trees as well which will help limit damage potential. 

[weathermedic]

Nice write up on the wind potential from OFK AFD:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
***Strong to High Winds Possible Tonight***

Deepening low pressure over the Great Lakes will track east
today and pass to the north tonight, dragging a strong cold
front through the area. Gusty SW winds will precede the front
with the potential for gusts of 25 to 35 mph this afternoon,
highest along the coast and east end of LI (40-50kt LLJ passing
to the SE). A few showers will be possible along and ahead of
the front this evening. CAMs show a line of convection
approaching the Lower Hudson Valley around 8 pm (00Z), then
dissipating as it works west to east across the area through
around midnight. There is weak instability and an isolated
thunderstorm is possible north and west of the NYC metro. SPC
does have the Lower Hudson Valley and much of southern CT under
a marginal risk, as an isolated thunderstorm could mix down some
higher winds from aloft. However, the main concern is for a
period of strong to possibly high post-frontal winds. The
strongest winds look to be for about a 3- to 6-hour period
following the cold frontal passage, from around midnight to
daybreak. Latest 00Z soundings from NAM and GFS do show a period
of 50-55kt winds at the top of the mixed layer during the strongest
cold advection. At the same time, the nighttime hours are not
as conducive to mixing due to the loss of daytime heating. NBM
winds which are notoriously too weak in these situations have
winds gusts below 45 mph, and even the NBM90 isn`t much higher.
Neither of which support high wind warning criteria (sustained
equal or greater than 40 mph and/or gusts equal or greater than
58 mph). In fact, the NBM probabilities are less than 10
percent for greater than 55 mph. Ever the HREF and global
ensemble (GEFS,GEPS,and EPS) also have low probabilities. The
highest probabilities are over the warmer water due to to the
better mixing.

Thus, have changed the high wind watch to a wind advisory for
the Lower Hudson Valley, interior NE NJ, and interior SW CT.
Elsewhere, the high wind watch remains in effect due to the
maritime influence and warmer surface temperatures providing a
deeper mixed layer. However, confidence is not high enough to
go with a warning and there is time to get another look at some
newer guidance before making a final decision. Either way, feel
confident for gusts of 40 to 50 mph areawide.