7PM Wed 11/5-7AM Thu 11/6 wind event with embedded fairly widespread 3 hour period of gusts 45MPH+...isolated max 60

[wdrag]

Please follow whatever NWS OKX PHI ALY and BOX issues on the coming Wednesday night wind and tides.

From our subforum standpoint have tagged wind damage for Wednesday night's brief but significant wind event associated with a 55-65KT 850 MB Cold Air Advection jet overhead.

No guarantees,  so the worst case 12z/4 HRRR and NAM suite max wind gusts should be 5 MPH too high but nevertheless, we should see more power outages than this morning (attached), and I expect at least a few night time -Thursday morning detours travel delays due to downed tree branches especially ridges and through NYS-CT. This will impact air travel for arrival departures Wednesday evening possibly into Thursday morning. 

Lapse rates look unstable for a few hours Wednesday evening up to at least 900MB, with strong subsidence drying in the wake of the Wednesday evening cold frontal passage adding to momentum transfer.   

A 12 hour 500MB HFC of over 150M amplifies in its east-southeast trek across NYS into New England Wednesday evening, briefly increasing the nw 850MB jet behind it to 65 kt or a bit higher.

PA/NJ look to be on the southern fringe of the greatest impact which should be NYS and New England. 

It's an early call so no guarantees but I think its worth an eventual wind Watch or Advisory.   I expect at least half the airports in the NYC metro area to hit at least 40 kt, possibly reaching 50 KT? 

Wind gust potential diminishes rapidly in our NYC subforum area by dawn Thursday. 

BLOWOUT Tide Thursday morning?: There is a chance that parts of the east facing coasts at just after midnight Thursday morning's LOW tide cycle will see a blow out tide less than -1.6' MLLW because of this brief period of wnw wind. 

Added HRRR max gusts at 10P/5 and 1A/6, the 12z/4 FOUS with my own personal trigger of 27KT BL wind as a threshold of wind event concerns, the 844AM today power outages with the relatively light sub 40KT gusts.  Then  I added the 3K NAM sampler max wind gusts, the more conservative Blend Of Models wind gust forecast and the the EPS marginal advisory wind gust modeled prediction. 1058A/4

 

 

[Brian5671]

Would think at minimum an advisory for the entire CWA

[FPizz]

Had a few gusts in the lower to mid-30s already

[uofmiami]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Had a few gusts in the lower to mid-30s already

37 mph in Muttontown already & 31 mph in Syosset.  

[SnowGoose69]

Good thing peak winds at 900-925 occur when its dark, if this came through 12-18 hours later I think some gusts over 50 would be possible.

[Brian5671]

High wind watch out for tomorrow PM for all the area

[Stormlover74]

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeastern New Jersey, and southeastern New York.

[uofmiami]

25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeastern New Jersey, and southeastern New York.

9pm tomorrow night until 8 am on Thursday morning.  Wish they put the exact timeframe in the headline, it's only under the hazardous weather conditions in the point & click.

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

9pm tomorrow night until 8 am on Thursday morning.  Wish they put the exact timeframe in the headline, it's only under the hazardous weather conditions in the point & click.

[Krs4Lfe]

32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeastern New Jersey, and southeastern New York.

I would assume that gets knocked down to wind advisory. Usually the models are overblown with wind gusts *no pun intended*. Still, it's something interesting to track anyway.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I would assume that gets knocked down to wind advisory. Usually the models are overblown with wind gusts *no pun intended*. Still, it's something interesting to track anyway.

925 winds for the metro are 44-49kts from 03-11z or so, sustained on MOS is around 30...if this was day time I'd be worried about mixing to 900 or 875 with gusts of 50kts but I think we might be only 42-44

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I would assume that gets knocked down to wind advisory. Usually the models are overblown with wind gusts *no pun intended*. Still, it's something interesting to track anyway.

Very true.    Although this one seems to have a little more teeth.   Also looks like the strongest winds are in a small 2-3 hr window.

[uofmiami]

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

[Krs4Lfe]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Very true.    Although this one seems to have a little more teeth.   Also looks like the strongest winds are in a small 2-3 hr window.

It's interesting because usually our strongest winds come during storms, this one will have almost no precip for our entire area. I remember Jan 2022, there was a gust to 60 in NYC from that storm that was the big blizzard in great lakes and appalachia but just one inch of snow to rain here and then strong winds and dry slot. Always cool to track high winds, but very few times we actually get high wind warning level winds (60+ mph). Early March 2018 was wild, 65 mph gusts over here. I can only think of a handful of 60+ (non severe and no tropical) events here in NYC over the past decade. 

[steve392]

This is just winds?  No precip? 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, steve392 said:

This is just winds?  No precip? 

Yeah the system is moisture starved-most of it is well north