November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[CoastalWx]

I know it’s an op run, but 12z Euro AI has the depiction I had in mind for this whole regime shift. Early December shut ‘em down type cutter with frigid temps into TX while Kevin is wearing his plum smuggler running shorts for his morning run. Then it shifts east. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I meant to look through the behavior of the MJO for my entire analog set in putting together the forecast at the end, but I forgot to do it...if I mess up the December progression and rush the warmth, that is why.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it’s an op run, but 12z Euro AI has the depiction I had in mind for this whole regime shift. Early December shut ‘em down type cutter with frigid temps into TX while Kevin is wearing his plum smuggler running shorts for his morning run. Then it shifts east. 

I think that is the favored outcome.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I meant to look through the behavior of the MJO for my entire analog set in putting together the forecast at the end, but I forgot to do it...if I mess up the December progression and rush the warmth, that is why.

I miss having access to Ventrice’s MJO stuff. All I have are those wheeler diagrams. Better than nothing I guess.

[Layman]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it’s an op run, but 12z Euro AI has the depiction I had in mind for this whole regime shift. Early December shut ‘em down type cutter with frigid temps into TX while Kevin is wearing his plum smuggler running shorts for his morning run. Then it shifts east. 

"Plum Smuggler"   Thank you for expanding my vocabulary today - this one is definitely going into the rotation.  It sounds like Fruit of the Loom's answer to the Hamburgler!

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah there’s no way we don’t get a very strong screamer early December

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Layman said:

"Plum Smuggler"   Thank you for expanding my vocabulary today - this one is definitely going into the rotation.  It sounds like Fruit of the Loom's answer to the Hamburgler!

I always try to include some nice “visions” in my posts.  

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah there’s no way we don’t get a very strong screamer early December

I mean, it’s possible we don’t, but everybody gets so mad if I mention that. It’s always like the EPO will bring down the cold. It will squish everything… But that’s how these patterns initially go. It’s literally climo. There’s nothing wrong in saying that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The cold isn't going to just surge in here with at least minor resistance from the PNA...not the arctic stuff, anyway...it will take a week or so into December.

[weatherwiz]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wonder when the GFS and foreign guidance is going to converge on Tday. GFS still like a full day slower with that trough. Foreign models all have the front offshore by Tday morning. 

The GFS could be ran on Nov 29 with all the input variables of the 27th and still not get how the 27th unfolded correct

[Torch Tiger]

12z Euro AI looks like ass right through EOR.  Basically the opposite of what you want to see at 12/6

 

[weatherwiz]

Pattern looks active but need to get the flow to kind of slow down a bit...but been waiting on that for like 8 years

[eduggs]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it’s an op run, but 12z Euro AI has the depiction I had in mind for this whole regime shift. Early December shut ‘em down type cutter with frigid temps into TX while Kevin is wearing his plum smuggler running shorts for his morning run. Then it shifts east. 

The problem is it doesn't stop there but keeps shifting east. And the end of the run looks similar to the recent and current continental height field.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Pattern looks active but need to get the flow to kind of slow down a bit...but been waiting on that for like 8 years

I don't expect any KUs in December...more of an overrunning/SWFE threat, as others have mentioned....although I did include a slight chance early on.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't expect any KUs in December...more of an overrunning/SWFE threat, as others have mentioned....although I did include a slight chance early on.

I could see NNE doing really well moving through Dec. 

But I'm holding out alot of hope on another SSW occurring. When you're looking for something to shake things up...that is something that can do it. Seeing how the stratosphere has evolved so far and some of the forecasts moving through the next few weeks...I think is a great signal. This opens the door for January and February. If December sucks then so be it...but if it does suck we better be seeing things starting to change...and I don't mean "10 days out stuff"...like actually physically ongoing changes

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The problem is it doesn't stop there but keeps shifting east. And the end of the run looks similar to the recent and current continental height field.

EPS and EPS AIFS looked fine to me at the end after the cutter. I’ve been after the first week train anyways. 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s get the Mansfield stake down to 0”

[eduggs]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS and EPS AIFS looked fine to me at the end after the cutter. I’ve been after the first week train anyways. 

Climo improves every day from now through end of year. And it's always easier to be hopeful about a future period past where the models can "see."

But I'm not sure what you mean by "fine"... Not hopeless yes, but not very encouraging for wintry weather either. And not much different than the recent and forecasted mid-range "pattern". Strong ridge through the middle of the country with yet another trof entering the west coast. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't expect any KUs in December...more of an overrunning/SWFE threat, as others have mentioned....although I did include a slight chance early on.

Dealing with transient cold shots so it will be all about the timing. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Climo improves every day from now through end of year. And it's always easier to be hopeful about a future period past where the models can "see."

But I'm not sure what you mean by "fine"... Not hopeless yes, but not very encouraging for wintry weather either. And not much different than the recent and forecasted mid-range "pattern". Strong ridge through the middle of the country with yet another trof entering the west coast. 

After day 13 or so temps cooled off with what looked like potential storm chances down the road. What are you looking for specifically?

[CoastalWx]

None of those models had a trough coming in and a massive SE ridge. On the means anyways. I’m not losing sleep over op runs. 

[CoastalWx]

The ensembles show our source region in Southeast Canada cold. We haven’t seen anything like that in years. I’m not looking for a KU pattern just something that often chances and I think this one will.

[SnowGoose69]

50 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Pattern looks active but need to get the flow to kind of slow down a bit...but been waiting on that for like 8 years

It’s why I’m not sold on the massive SER in early Dec.  the problem last winter and when in recent weeks when ensembles tried showing that was it was solely based on some type of huge cutter developing and pumping the ridge.  But in fast flow even those have a hard time developing 

[eduggs]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

After day 13 or so temps cooled off with what looked like potential storm chances down the road. What are you looking for specifically?

I think I'm looking for the same things you're looking for. I only commented on your posts for clarification because I'm not seeing what you're seeing.

[weatherwiz]

A big problem is even when we seem to get good PAC setups we can't seem to get a favorable orientation of the ridge so what looks to be a +PNA I don't think is a true +PNA and with the orientation of the ridging it just results in a dump of cold and a trough into the West and the result in pumping the heights up out east...big problem to have, especially when the SE ridge is still a prominent player.  We would either need to get some blocking to flatten it a big or hope for an active northern stream and keep dampening the ridge a bit. 

But let's see what happens across eastern Russia and Asia over the week. Right now you have the PV on that side of the hemisphere and you have lobes breaking off it and ejecting across the NPAC within the East Asian jet stream. Late this weekend the Euro breaks off a piece and it looks like this piece is slated to be a big player in how the pattern evolves

By Thursday you have a major ridge bridge to the north with the energy significantly stronger and forced to remain south with a lead wave ahead of it

This really helps to pump up a ridge downstream and helps aid in the amplification of that lead shortwave across the Northwest and a subsequent significant increase in the heights out in the East. 

My point in all this is just too illustrate how fickle guidance be be in the evolution of a pattern just from one piece. If such a piece never breaks off or is not as strong as advertised...that completely changes the game. The northern hemispheric flow is way too chaotic right now...its like a nascar track with too many drivers...so many drivers trying to set their lane and pace the field but everyone is competing to do the same thing. This makes it nearly impossible to have any idea of what to expect, until you start to see how these players in the 48-72 hour forecast actually look at 48-72 hours. 

 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s why I’m not sold on the massive SER in early Dec.  the problem last winter and when in recent weeks when ensembles tried showing that was it was solely based on some type of huge cutter developing and pumping the ridge.  But in fast flow even those have a hard time developing 

yup...that could easily be overstated too. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think I'm looking for the same things you're looking for. I only commented on your posts for clarification because I'm not seeing what you're seeing.

On both of those ensembles, the EPS and the AIEPS, I see a ridge off the West Coast and part of a trough dipping into the southwest corner of the US. I don’t really see any red flags? If anything that trough over the southwest will help shoot some impulses northeast because otherwise if we didn’t have that, I think we might have suppression working its way down.

[Chrisrotary12]

Boy does it look like it wants to snow

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Boy does it look like it wants to snow

Been thinking that all day, its had that look

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

A big problem is even when we seem to get good PAC setups we can't seem to get a favorable orientation of the ridge so what looks to be a +PNA I don't think is a true +PNA and with the orientation of the ridging it just results in a dump of cold and a trough into the West and the result in pumping the heights up out east...big problem to have, especially when the SE ridge is still a prominent player.  We would either need to get some blocking to flatten it a big or hope for an active northern stream and keep dampening the ridge a bit. 

But let's see what happens across eastern Russia and Asia over the week. Right now you have the PV on that side of the hemisphere and you have lobes breaking off it and ejecting across the NPAC within the East Asian jet stream. Late this weekend the Euro breaks off a piece and it looks like this piece is slated to be a big player in how the pattern evolves

By Thursday you have a major ridge bridge to the north with the energy significantly stronger and forced to remain south with a lead wave ahead of it

This really helps to pump up a ridge downstream and helps aid in the amplification of that lead shortwave across the Northwest and a subsequent significant increase in the heights out in the East. 

My point in all this is just too illustrate how fickle guidance be be in the evolution of a pattern just from one piece. If such a piece never breaks off or is not as strong as advertised...that completely changes the game. The northern hemispheric flow is way too chaotic right now...its like a nascar track with too many drivers...so many drivers trying to set their lane and pace the field but everyone is competing to do the same thing. This makes it nearly impossible to have any idea of what to expect, until you start to see how these players in the 48-72 hour forecast actually look at 48-72 hours. 

 

It Pretty much comes down to…we just don’t/won’t KNOW…until very close in.  What we do know, is there looks to be potential.  But will it be realized?