November 2025 OBS Discussion

[FPizz]

17 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Good idea, I used to have one but it cracked after years of use. Never replaced it but they are good.

Yes, and you can find them for less than $50.  Remembering to empty, especially during winter when the water can ice up and crack the gauge is the hardest part.  I may or may not have done that once or twice over the years   

[MJO812]

Weeklies look nice going into December 

Nice negative NAO and plenty of cold .

Having the PV weak will help us

[mgerb]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

For official rain at my place, I have a cocorahs gauge.  I always like to compare it to the station one.

Do you report to the program? 

[FPizz]

10 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Do you report to the program? 

No, i just went on to the site and submitted the application 

[MJO812]

Nice cold shot coming up

Lows

[Roger Smith]

I recently posted this in the New England subforum and it would apply to NYC subforum as well ...

I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England.

Will add for NYC, my prediction is 18-23 inches for NYC, 15-20 for JFK, 23-28 for EWR, 30-40 s CT and parts of LI. A more average sort of winter by modern standards at least. I think the big weather stories will be in the Midwest with huge temperature swings and some powerful lake effect storms at times. Probably one decent coastal snowstorm somewhere like mid to late January into early February. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I recently posted this in the New England subforum and it would apply to NYC subforum as well ...

I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England.

Will add for NYC, my prediction is 18-23 inches for NYC, 15-20 for JFK, 23-28 for EWR, 30-40 s CT and parts of LI. A more average sort of winter by modern standards at least. I think the big weather stories will be in the Midwest with huge temperature swings and some powerful lake effect storms at times. Probably one decent coastal snowstorm somewhere like mid to late January into early February. 

So low for NYC but more for LI ? Weird

[psv88]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So low for NYC but more for LI ? Weird

Long Island averages more snow than NYC. Not weird at all. 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Long Island averages more snow than NYC. Not weird at all. 

Not that much more, only a few inches I think. 

Does North Shore have an updated version of his snowmap I wonder?

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Not that much more, only a few inches I think. 

Does North Shore have an updated version of his snowmap I wonder?

Upton and areas out there average at least 5” more. 

[Sundog]

12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Upton and areas out there average at least 5” more. 

Over the past 30 years? Maybe I'm just bitter but I remember a large number of coastals that destroyed LI and only grazed NYC during the last 20 years, has the difference always been that much?

[psv88]

16 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Over the past 30 years? Maybe I'm just bitter but I remember a large number of coastals that destroyed LI and only grazed NYC during the last 20 years, has the difference always been that much?

Some seasons I’m sure different, but between further north latitude out east, less development and longitude I’d say yes 

[Krs4Lfe]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The short and sharp shot of cold looks good. Probably mid (maybe low) 30s for lows in the City, well into the 20s outside (teens in the coldest spots).

The only problem is these cold shots are always outdone by the warmups. Even without a ridge over the northeast it seems like our base state is slightly above normal. Feels like it takes a lot to get some colder air lately 

[wdrag]

Wind advisory potential continues Wednesday night...40-50 MPH gusts, near 60 briefly on the ridges. Power outages of some sort return. Might need some predawn Thu detours to destinations. Not sure of the power outages count Wed night... not major but not nil either. Blowout tide potential both low tides Thu as we move into lunar larger tide cycles.  No thread til or if OKX issues. 

[Sundog]

Thank god it's dark by 5PM now. I can come out of my coffin an hour earlier now. 

[psv88]

Just missed hitting a full grown buck around the corner from my house. The southern area of Commack has deer, my first time seeing one though. 
 

Will have to adjust for looking out for deer at night now. What a pain in the ass!

[uofmiami]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Just missed hitting a full grown buck around the corner from my house. The southern area of Commack has deer, my first time seeing one though. 
 

Will have to adjust for looking out for deer at night now. What a pain in the ass!

They are everywhere.  I've already seen one accident in Muttontown on 25A, deer hit passenger side fender of an SUV.  I stay in left lane to avoid any potential deer jumping into right lane from yards, etc.

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

They are everywhere.  I've already seen one accident in Muttontown on 25A, deer hit passenger side fender of an SUV.  I stay in left lane to avoid any potential deer jumping into right lane from yards, etc.

That’s wild. Was absolutely never a thing when I was growing up here. The only deer then were on the barrier islands and way out east. Nothing in western Suffolk or Nassau 

[495weatherguy]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

That’s wild. Was absolutely never a thing when I was growing up here. The only deer then were on the barrier islands and way out east. Nothing in western Suffolk or Nassau 

Currently live in Melville and this time of the year we see them everyday.  Daytime too.  Yesterday even had wild turkeys-first time I’ve seen them

[psv88]

1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

Currently live in Melville and this time of the year we see them everyday.  Daytime too.  Yesterday even had wild turkeys-first time I’ve seen them

Where in Melville do you live? I grew up there as well, New York Ave and Old country road. Never saw deer there. We had a turkey in Commack on my lawn a few years ago. Was funny, right before thanksgiving 

[donsutherland1]

A few showers are possible tonight. Tomorrow and Wednesday will be mild days. Highs will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s. 

A weak cold front could cross the region Wednesday, perhaps touching off a few scattered showers. It will turn increasingly windy following the frontal passage. Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s before milder conditions return for a time next weekend.

Afterward, there is the potential for a short but sharp cold shot, possibly preceded by a chilly rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +18.96 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.583 today. 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

The only problem is these cold shots are always outdone by the warmups. Even without a ridge over the northeast it seems like our base state is slightly above normal. Feels like it takes a lot to get some colder air lately 

Yes, but sharp cold shots are still possible. Below normal months can also occur. 

[495weatherguy]

23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Where in Melville do you live? I grew up there as well, New York Ave and Old country road. Never saw deer there. We had a turkey in Commack on my lawn a few years ago. Was funny, right before thanksgiving 

Live near Crestwood.  You lived near White Post and Whitman park?

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Live near Crestwood.  You lived near White Post and Whitman park?

Yes, just north of Whitman park up New York avenue. 

[495weatherguy]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yes, just north of Whitman park up New York avenue. 

Whitman has good pickleball courts now

We played Commack in football on Saturday.   Very nice school

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I recently posted this in the New England subforum and it would apply to NYC subforum as well ...

I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England.

Will add for NYC, my prediction is 18-23 inches for NYC, 15-20 for JFK, 23-28 for EWR, 30-40 s CT and parts of LI. A more average sort of winter by modern standards at least. I think the big weather stories will be in the Midwest with huge temperature swings and some powerful lake effect storms at times. Probably one decent coastal snowstorm somewhere like mid to late January into early February. 

I’d be beyond thrilled with 30” here. My immediate part of LI is often close with coastal CT for snow. I’m thinking less especially if we get another zonked Pacific Jet dominated winter but hopefully we have some good opportunities come to reality. 

[jm1220]

34 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Live near Crestwood.  You lived near White Post and Whitman park?

Know all those areas very well. I live just NE of Rt 110 and Jericho Tpke intersection. 

[495weatherguy]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Know all those areas very well. I live just NE of Rt 110 and Jericho Tpke intersection. 

Love the Halal place by you

[Wxoutlooksblog]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nice cold shot coming up

Lows

A prelude to the frigid arctic intrusions and wind driven snows of this upcoming winter particularly January & February.

WX/PT

[NorthShoreWx]

6 hours ago, Sundog said:

Not that much more, only a few inches I think. 

Does North Shore have an updated version of his snowmap I wonder?

I've been a total deadbeat on the snow maps.  Hopefully I'll get back on that project soon.  I don't have my stuff right in front of me, but the 30-year average here is between 36 and 37".  I think BNL is similar.  Their 78-year average is 32":  https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/monthlysnowfall.htm