weatherwiz Posted Friday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:43 PM A vigorous shortwave trough crosses the region late Sunday night and Monday with strong cold front and triple point moving across the region Monday morning. This system will be characterized by a potent 80+ knot mlvl jet streak and 60-70+ knots of bulk shear overspreading the region to go along with steeping mid-level lapse rates associated with cooling temperatures aloft. Out ahead of the shortwave trough, a strong southerly flow will develop pumping in an unseasonably moist low-level air mass. The combination of an unseasonably moist low-level airmass combined with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (~ 6.5 C/KM) should yield upwards of 250-500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Bulk shear values in excess of 60-70 knots combined with vigorous forcing will likely promote a squall line consisting of heavy rain, thunder/lightning, and strong-to-damaging wind gusts along the leading edge, moving across the region early-to-late morning Monday. Forecast soundings exhibit enough low-level turning, particularly in the vicinity of the triple point to warrant potential for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted Friday at 07:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:11 PM This is a mortal lock because I won’t be around to enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Friday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:57 PM Reminds me of the Oct 3, 1979 Windsor Locks setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 10:40 AM Share Posted Saturday at 10:40 AM Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Saturday at 11:27 AM Share Posted Saturday at 11:27 AM Looks pretty wild Monday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 11:38 AM Share Posted Saturday at 11:38 AM Maybe right on S coast can watch. Looks meh outside that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Saturday at 11:49 AM Share Posted Saturday at 11:49 AM Never looked like much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Saturday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:18 PM Damage? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Saturday at 09:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:47 PM Looks light Could be a rumble or two of thunder with strongest shower activity but unfavorable time of day and shallow progged instability should limit this. Flow fields are pretty strong, with winds around 925 mb around 50-55 kt, but strongest jetcore is locked in a shallow inversion. Pattern looks similar to what we tend to find in late-Fall and the early-Spring with a strongly-forced line of downpours with brief gusty winds but limited severe weather potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Saturday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:57 PM Yup .. damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 11:50 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:50 AM The shortwave trough arrives along with a strong surface front early Monday morning, and moves quickly offshore by mid Monday afternoon. Guidance is in rather good agreement on the timing of the line of heavy rain or Fine Line. The Fine Line should be approaching western MA/CT between 5-7 am and arriving at the I-95 corridor between 8-11 am. The line will then be moving offshore, likely by 1-2 pm in the afternoon. Although Fine Line will be moving rather quickly, it will pack a punch as it moves through and create disruptions to the morning commute. PWATS ahead of the line will be surging to near 1.5 inches, which, combined with the strong forcing from the shortwave, will likely result in rain rates exceeding 1-2 inches per hour. Strong to possibly damaging winds may also accompany the line as low-level winds around 2kft will be approaching 50-60mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 02:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:52 PM Fine lines typically don’t produce damage. You’ll need a rogue strong cell either within the line or just ahead of it to cause it. Too bad it wasn’t 6 hrs later. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago fine line...that must be inducted into the fraud 7 or whatever Right up there with the D5 cheerfully optimistic anafrontal 3-6" for Christmas day i'm not working tomorrow so expecting a dud, but hopefully DIT and Ineedsnow get some damage 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Fine lines typically don’t produce damage. You’ll need a rogue strong cell either within the line or just ahead of it to cause it. Too bad it wasn’t 6 hrs later. 18z hrrr actually shows this. Bigguns within the line. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Let’s spin some trees down onto lines 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago HRRR has some big rips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Ahh the clowns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Still waiting for my 10a golf tournament in Dover, NH to be cancelled. Otherwise it’s going to be wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Still waiting for my 10a golf tournament in Dover, NH to be cancelled. Otherwise it’s going to be wild. Clubs ripped out of bags and thrown into pond? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: HRRR has some big rips 30-40 out of the SE in my hood and I'll lose power. Again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Flaccid so far. Maybe it develops further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Meh. Glad for the rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Over head now, little if any wind. About .20” so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Extremely meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Extremely meh It’s been a decent rain producer but that’s about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Rain is starting. Let’s get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago wish this was just a few hours later but yeah maybe farther east has a slim shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Looks like a RI jack incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a RI jack incoming Holy shit man. Crushed 1.11 and 3 per hr rate right now 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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