Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,294
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

Monday, October 20, 2025 Squall Line Potential


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

A vigorous shortwave trough crosses the region late Sunday night and Monday with strong cold front and triple point moving across the region Monday morning. This system will be characterized by a potent 80+ knot mlvl jet streak and 60-70+ knots of bulk shear overspreading the region to go along with steeping mid-level lapse rates associated with cooling temperatures aloft. Out ahead of the shortwave trough, a strong southerly flow will develop pumping in an unseasonably moist low-level air mass. 

The combination of an unseasonably moist low-level airmass combined with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (~ 6.5 C/KM) should yield upwards of 250-500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Bulk shear values in excess of 60-70 knots combined with vigorous forcing will likely promote a squall line consisting of heavy rain, thunder/lightning, and strong-to-damaging wind gusts along the leading edge, moving across the region early-to-late morning Monday. Forecast soundings exhibit enough low-level turning, particularly in the vicinity of the triple point to warrant potential for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks light

Could be a rumble or two
of thunder with strongest shower activity but unfavorable time of
day and shallow progged instability should limit this. Flow fields
are pretty strong, with winds around 925 mb around 50-55 kt, but
strongest jetcore is locked in a shallow inversion. Pattern looks
similar to what we tend to find in late-Fall and the early-Spring
with a strongly-forced line of downpours with brief gusty winds but
limited severe weather potential.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...