Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall

[allgame830]

6 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

How far can we go until we reach restricted Cuban airspace?

I think in the past recon was given the go fly over their airspace or maybe I’m wrong? 

[Nibor]

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

I think in the past recon was given the go fly over their airspace or maybe I’m wrong? 

Yes, they have clearance.

[Wannabehippie]

 

If fhose really intense pink colored convection can wrap completely wrap around the center, will we see it reach cat 5 status again before it hits Cuba? Or will it only make it to Cat 3-4?

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

 

If fhose really intense pink colored convection can wrap completely wrap around the center, will we see it reach cat 5 status again before it hits Cuba? Or will it only make it to Cat 3-4?

probably only a high 4, but she’s relentless. Anything is possible.

[Wannabehippie]

11:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 28
Location: 19.3°N 76.6°W
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

[Boston Bulldog]

Given the broader core and limited time over water, I would bet against Melissa re-attaining Cat 5 status. Perhaps flight level winds will begin to resemble that intensity again, but it is highly unlikely those winds would get down to the surface in time. If Melissa had another 18 hours or so before landfall it’s a different story.

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Given the broader core and limited time over water, I would bet against Melissa re-attaining Cat 5 status. Perhaps flight level winds will begin to resemble that intensity again, but it is highly unlikely those winds would get down to the surface in time. If Melissa had another 18 hours or so before landfall it’s a different story.

Center sonde has a 954mb reading with 6kt wind so despite the satellite appearance, it hasn’t translated into strength in a substantial way yet. Obviously still need to see the SW and NE quadrants.

[Wannabehippie]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Center sonde has a 954mb reading with 6kt wind so despite the satellite appearance, it hasn’t translated into strength in a substantial way yet. Obviously still need to see the SW and NE quadrants.

I am not sure the plane got dead center of the hurricane.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-2613A-MELISSA.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-2613A-MELISSA_dropsondes.png

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I am not sure the plane got dead center of the hurricane.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-2613A-MELISSA.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-2613A-MELISSA_dropsondes.png

 

 

Given how light the wind was, even if it missed by a touch I would bet it doesn’t make much of a difference. 

[Floydbuster]

 

[Windspeed]

Really impressed by how well Melissa's mid level vortex held together and how fast the eyewall is reorganizing. It's not got a lot of time before landfall in Cuba, but it has incredible upper level support and obviously high SSTs to reintensify some in short order. At least maintain current intensity. Should be a Category 4 strike.

[Boston Bulldog]

27 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Really impressed by how well Melissa's mid level vortex held together and how fast the eyewall is reorganizing. It's not got a lot of time before landfall in Cuba, but it has incredible upper level support and obviously high SSTs to reintensify some in short order. At least maintain current intensity. Should be a Category 4 strike.

Agreed, the ongoing contraction of the core as the vortices get back in concert with each other tells me we should see additional pressure falls through landfall. Insanely anomalous to get a Cat-4 strike in this area of Cuba that is so well guarded by mountainous islands.

Sandy is obviously the gold standard when it comes to poleward tracking hurricane intensification over the Eastern Cayman Trench (kind of shocked there isn't a more descriptive name that's easy to find for this body of water), but Melissa is putting on an impressive performance.

[Windspeed]

Impressive.

[Nibor]

Worried about Santiago de Cuba. Second largest city in the country.

[Windspeed]

Worried about Santiago de Cuba. Second largest city in the country.

Chivrico is a town that might get a direct hit. It's west of Santiago on coastal route 20. It's located at -76.4 W and that looks about where the eye will come ashore. Santiago should be just far enough east to stay out of the eyewall.

Fortunately, the location around Chivrico is not as prone to surge. Melissa will be mostly a wind event and hopefully it's gaining enough forward speed to mitigate flash flooding from torrential rain.

[Windspeed]

VHT bursting in the northern eyewall.

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

VHT bursting in the northern eyewall.

Not sure how much time it has left, but it’s really trying to intensify.

[Windspeed]

Not sure how much time it has left, but it’s really trying to intensify.

Perhaps two to three hours to landfall based on radar.

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Perhaps two to three hours to landfall based on radar.

With recon done I doubt there are any new updates to intensity outside of whatever they decide at 2am. 

[Windspeed]

Trying to adjust and pinpoint motion to landfall. Barring any wobbles, it looks like the center will cross somewhere directly between Chivrico and Santiago. There is a small community on route 20 located there with an icon on the coast named Playa Aserradero. Not sure if anyone is familiar with the coastal region there.

[WxWatcher007]

2:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 29
Location: 19.7°N 76.4°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

 

[gallopinggertie]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Trying to adjust and pinpoint motion to landfall. Barring any wobbles, it looks like the center will cross somewhere directly between Chivrico and Santiago. There is a small community on route 20 located there with an icon on the coast named Playa Aserradero. Not sure if anyone is familiar with the coastal region there.

Any thoughts on surge threat for Santiago de Cuba? I looked the city up on Google street view, there are some photo spheres showing that part of the colonial heart is just a few feet above the bay there. 

[Windspeed]

2:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 29
Location: 19.7°N 76.4°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph
 

Dropped a category, I see. I figured they'd at least hold at a 4 since the satellite appearance had recovered this evening. But a few knots difference is paltry.

[Windspeed]

Any thoughts on surge threat for Santiago de Cuba? I looked the city up on Google street view, there are some photo spheres showing that part of the colonial heart is just a few feet above the bay there. 

Hopefully, they will stay out of the southeastern quadrant of the eyewall. Based on radar motion, they should miss it to their west. The terrain at the coast is rather rugged west of Santiago, so surge isn't as much a problem there. But Santiago proper has the harbor and low-lying area. They probably will get some surge, but not as bad as actually taking a hit from within eyewall. Melissa is also moving at a pretty decent clip now, so hopefully inland flooding off of the higher elevations won't compound the issue.

[Floydbuster]

14 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

2:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 29
Location: 19.7°N 76.4°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph
 

Dropped a category, I see. I figured they'd at least hold at a 4 since the satellite appearance had recovered this evening. But a few knots difference is paltry.

 

I read that maybe recon is not finding much to support above 115 mph.

[Windspeed]

The northern eyewall is now onshore.

[Floydbuster]

[TriPol]

For as long as I live, I will never forget Melissa. What a storm!

[Windspeed]

I would expect the mountainous terrain of Eastern Cuba to rip up the low-level vorticity quite a bit here. Might not drop below hurricane intensity, but that combined with increasing shear, I doubt Melissa will be able to regain major status again prior to any impact on Bermuda.