The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

28 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’m working a table at Hampstead's Fall Fest Saturday, hoping any rain that does come in, happens after 4pm

Well, I hope/think much of Saturday should be OK from what I've looked at across much of the area.  I know where you're coming from, as I, myself, am planning to go to the MD Renaissance Festival again on Saturday.  I won't be surprised if there are a few light or brief showers in the afternoon (which wouldn't be too horribly bad) but it seems like the more consistent and heavier rain would hold off until Saturday evening and beyond.  At least hopefully!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, high risk said:

 If you had said that the models had major disagreement and inconsistency all week, you would have been correct.   But you wrote that the "models had nothing about this until now".   That is spectacularly and embarrassingly wrong.    You can read discussion about this being a legitimate threat in the medium range as far back as Monday.   

Thank you for this, I was thinking exactly the same thing.  This potential was showing up in much of the guidance going back to Sunday or Monday as I recall.  And it was mentioned in discussions even at that time.  I was a bit surprised that LWX was still being optimistic holding off any real mention of rain for awhile, but I guess they wanted to keep the then-longer range forecast consistent and the same until there was a better indication in the guidance.  And they did actually allude to the uncertainty and possibility of a Nor'Easter type system for the latter part of this weekend.

[JenkinsJinkies]

This could be a legit one. Barring a Friday/Saturday rug pull or it fails the day of the event. We can’t underestimate the “day of” fails, they’ve been happening a lot thaws last few winters.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Indeed

Is this what the Reaper is doing in retirement to earn a few extra bucks?  A graveyard greeter...sort of like a Wallmart greeter!!!  (You can welcome people by saying "Good Morgue-ning!!) 

[JenkinsJinkies]

16 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Is this what the Reaper is doing in retirement to earn a few extra bucks?  A graveyard greeter...sort of like a Wallmart greeter!!!  (You can welcome people by saying "Good Morgue-ning!!) 

Antibiotics, sanitation, vaccines, fertilizers, and genetically modified crops slowed down his business.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

3 hours ago, dailylurker said:

It feels like the 90's since we had a October Nor'easter lol

October 2009… definitely a harbinger of the following February. 
 

My father-in-law is supposed to fly in to BWI Sunday afternoon though. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

October 2009… definitely a harbinger of the following February. 
 

My father-in-law is supposed to fly in to BWI Sunday afternoon though. 

The entire winter was great. Everything was a jackpot.

[WxUSAF]

18z gfs track is west of 12z slightly but drier overall. Basically a hold.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The entire winter was great. Everything was a jackpot.

True, but I said February in particular, because if I remember correctly, October 2009 had two back-to-back coastals.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS

[Eskimo Joe]

Where do I sign on the 18z GFS? Everyone wins.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z ICON is a disaster for western burbs 

[CAPE]

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z ICON is a disaster for western burbs 

I can see the Ji Meltdown Zone from my house (if this were winter)!!! 

[AccuChris]

I usually post in the Pennsylvania board but will be in OCMD from tomorrow night through Sunday so I will be in prime position for all coastal impacts for this one. I assume like most coastal towns OCMD is pretty susceptible to coastal/tidal flooding?


.

[Maestrobjwa]

39 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I can see the Ji Meltdown Zone from my house (if this were winter)!!! 

Lol But I would like to know why western MD has been so consistently dry for like the last year...

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI: bad but actually a tick west compared to 12Z.

[NorthArlington101]

I just don’t care about rain. Sorry ya’ll. Hope you have fun 

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z AI: bad but actually a tick west compared to 12Z.

Nice tic. I went from 1-2" to 2-4" of snow. Not as good as the 12-18" the GFS has. I don't trust the temps on the GFS for the lowlands though.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO with another wonky run throwing back some moisture on Monday...actually if this verifies EURO is still king, if not can't really take it seriously 4 days out anymore.

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS

That's the best GEFS run so far for DC

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI ensemble ticked west.

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Nice run for the Sierras' first possible snow of the season. But DC is gonna get smacked by that eastern storm!

[bncho]

GEFS keeps continuing the west trend—great… but where the hell was that last winter?

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

GEFS keeps continuing the west trend—great… but where the hell was that last winter?

It's a sign for winter!

[Eskimo Joe]

The 18z GFS op is interesting for Southeast Pennsylvania and Northeast Maryland. At 00z Monday, there's a potent 500mb jet of at least 50kts extending from Cecil County down to Bermuda. Meanwhile at 850mb, there's a 50 - 75kt easterly jet from Cape Cod to Lancaster, PA. Someone is going to get drenched.

[The Dude]

4 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Thank you for this, I was thinking exactly the same thing.  This potential was showing up in much of the guidance going back to Sunday or Monday as I recall.  And it was mentioned in discussions even at that time.  I was a bit surprised that LWX was still being optimistic holding off any real mention of rain for awhile, but I guess they wanted to keep the then-longer range forecast consistent and the same until there was a better indication in the guidance.  And they did actually allude to the uncertainty and possibility of a Nor'Easter type system for the latter part of this weekend.

Yup.  From the AFD last Sunday afternoon:

Will need to
monitor the possible development of a coastal low along the Outer
Banks, that could bring some rain to the area next Sunday.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=18&highlight=off&glossary=1

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z RRFS just came out. Not done at the end of the run...got our Bay Storm...

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z NBM