OBS for moderate coastal impact Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain everywhere. To minimize any disruptions review NWS warnings-statements.

[lee59]

Does look like the rain is progressing NW. Not that bad here so far .25 inch of rain and gusts to 28. Worst should be tonight and tomorrow morning.

[BxEngine]

I guess the models all had the rain over by this evening? Only explanation for claiming this isnt getting further west. 

[MANDA]

16 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Winds have actually relaxed somewhat here.   I expected a higher push than we have recieved for this approaching high tide.   

 

Beginning to think that this storm may not break the 2.67 we received on August 21st, when Erin passed by farrrrr offshore.  

I think part of the reason for lack of a bigger water push is wind direction.   Winds are more NNE than anything.  Until or if they turn more ENE I can't see much reason for tides to go higher than they were earlier.  Ultimate sfc low pressure track will determine if they go more easterly.  Not downplaying but if not more of an east component coastal flooding would I think be held to moderate at best.  

[sussexcountyobs]

It's been high and dry here in Vernon. Just blew off all the leaves from front, which I did yesterday, but you wouldn't have known it this morning. Starting to get some light drizzle now. Getting darker to my south. 55°

[Jefflaw77]

Fox weather still predicting the next Sandy tonight?

[TJW014]

Currently about 0.5' above forecast at Barnegat Inlet. Gonna take a ride out to the barrier island later tonight for high tide, maybe ride the bike out at IBSP for tomorrow's high tide. 

[dseagull]

21 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I think part of the reason for lack of a bigger water push is wind direction.   Winds are more NNE than anything.  Until or if they turn more ENE I can't see much reason for tides to go higher than they were earlier.  Ultimate sfc low pressure track will determine if they go more easterly.  Not downplaying but if not more of an east component coastal flooding would I think be held to moderate at best.  

Yup, thats a large part of it.  In any case, a low to mid range moderate event would be a blessing for those of us on the water.   One less headache to deal with.  Im ready for winter and my 2 months off of work.  

[wthrmn654]

39 mph so far that was at 315

[lee59]

From what I understand a secondary low may develop just to our southeast. Models have been having a problem with this. 

[lee59]

Montauk webcam:

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/new-york/montauk-downtowncircle.html#google_vignette

[nightknights]

Haven't checked but aee we dealing with double barrel how's one up here & the other still in NC.   All the heavy moisture way off shore

[wthrmn654]

So it seems that the bigger winds timing had been delayed and bit just watching update by weather channel as is crawling up the coast but I will say my barometer is dropping pretty hard. 

[wthrmn654]

Rain had overspread areas from NYC east as of 2 PM, and should
pivot NW into the west of the area through the afternoon and
early evening. Winds have actually decreased somewhat over land
in response to the incoming rain limiting vertical mixing, but
they should increase going into this evening as the pressure
gradient tightens significantly between a 1030 mb high over
Atlantic Canada and the low and associated warm front to the
south, and as a secondary low develops along the warm front E of
Delmarva and pivots back toward the Delaware or southern NJ
coast tonight while the primary low remains well to the south
along the Carolina coast. This secondary cyclogenesis appears
to be just underway, partly in response to area of convection
developing along the warm front near 37-38N 72-73W, and global
models are in better agreement on this evolution.

The forecast has still not changed much and no changes were
made to headlines based on latest 12Z data. Rain expected, and
isolated thunder can`t be ruled out near the coast late Mon
afternoon via some modest elevated instability. Winds peak late
this evening and overnight, and with models showing a moist
absolutely unstable layer just above the mixed layer think the
bulk of the 925-950 LLJ as forecast by the GFS should mix to
the sfc near the coast, with gusts over 60 mph across ern Long
Island, and 45-55 mph west of there into the rest of the
advisory area. Highest winds should be in areas with greater
exposure to NE winds off the water.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[BxEngine]

Rain has made it west of 95 

[wthrmn654]

-- Changed Discussion --

Generally minor to locally moderate coastal flooding occurred or is occurring with this afternoon high tidal cycle, as winds have been a bit on the lower side of ensemble guidance to this point, but moreso have been coming from the NNE vs more favorable NE/ENE for surge development. This forecast for late tonight and Monday afternoon high tides has been weighted towards a reasonable worst case scenario to account for closer to the coast depictions of low pressure track, providing a safety margin for planning. Water levels would fall on the lower end or short of current forecast range if winds remain more from the north versus the northeast. There is still potential for winds to veer back to the NE Monday if secondary low development occurs near the DelMarVa as suggested by some of the guidance. Potential for major coastal flooding for the southern bays of W LI and Jamaica Bay is dependent on the further north low pressure solutions and veering of winds to the NE. Overall, the magnitude and coverage for major coastal flooding (3ft inundation AGL) thresholds exceedance has decreased in the surge guidance as compared to yesterday for tonight and Monday afternoon, but still a modest threat of local major for SW Suffolk and Nassau County. This will pose an elevated threat to property, and potentially life. The potential for major flooding for Jamaica Bay is low, with moreso a widespread moderate coastal flood event (2 to 2 1/2 ft inundation AGL) Elsewhere, confidence is high in widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding along N and E facing coastlines along Western Long Island Sound, and twin forks of Long Island with combination of water levels reaching marginal moderate flood levels, along with 3- 6ft breaking wave action. In addition, widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding expected along NY/NJ harbor, including the tidally affected rivers of NE NJ, particularly the Hackensack River. Meanwhile, a widespread minor coastal flood threat exist for southern CT where NE winds should limit wave action and keep moderate flood impacts to localized. In addition, scattered areas of minor to locally moderate coastal flooding expected along low lying areas along the Hudson R during times of high tide this aft thru Monday aft as surge if forced up the river. No change to coastal flood headlines, but messaging on major flooding has been tempered a bit based on trends. A blend of 75th percentile Stevens, 75th percentile PETSS, and deterministic STOFS and ETSS was used for this forecast. The 75th percentile was still used in the ensemble guidance to give credence to NE vs NNE winds regimes and tidal piling over successive high tide cycles. Finally along the oceanfront, widespread dune base erosion and localized overwashes are likely during the times of high tide today thru Monday, via the combo of high stormtide and breaking surf around 8 to 12 ft. The prolonged e to w sweep will likely result in considerable beach erosion (escarpment) as well. 4-8 ft surf along NE facing and open water exposed areas of the twin forks of Long Island will also likely cause minor to moderate dune erosion.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[SnoSki14]

Kind of a classic coastal fall day with cool air, breezy conditions and rain. 

Hopefully a good sign as coastal tracks of any kind have been hard to come by 

[wthrmn654]

Even at game time is still not fully known what well exactly happen. 

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Even at game time is still not fully known what well exactly happen. 

Sure we do. It’s going to rain and be breezy. No surprises

[wthrmn654]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Sure we do. It’s going to rain and be breezy. No surprises

That's bland, that's what the weather rock would say. 

[MANDA]

Little Egg Harbor Twp. gusted to 54 mph in the last 15 minutes from the NE.

[wthrmn654]

Forecast was 4.7 feet, got to 4.3... in terms of guidance, not bad at all. Should the winds crank up and winds stay east ish, should be done flooding in morning. 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

I guess the models all had the rain over by this evening? Only explanation for claiming this isnt getting further west. 

I see you found yourself back in the dead horse forum again

[mob1]

Moderate rain here but winds are nothing special. Was at Belle Harbor earlier and the waves were pretty large (though nothing too crazy). 

[Sundog]

0.17 inches in NE Queens so far

The 18z NAMs have basically no rain until overnight/early tomorrow morning for my area and generally NYC which is comically bad considering these runs should have initialized with the NW edge of the precip already straddling the Hudson. 

[psv88]

Up to 0.53”

[MANDA]

Latest PNS wind gusts NWS PHI as of 4:15 p.m.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, dseagull said:

Yup, thats a large part of it.  In any case, a low to mid range moderate event would be a blessing for those of us on the water.   One less headache to deal with.  Im ready for winter and my 2 months off of work.  

you don't chase the stripers? the best of the season is mid november up here...

[uofmiami]

0.50” in Syosset and 0.38” in Mutttontown so far. 

[Brian5671]

moderate rain and wind here 58

[lee59]

.54 inch of rain so far here.