OBS for moderate coastal impact Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain everywhere. To minimize any disruptions review NWS warnings-statements.

[Jefflaw77]

Why is Fox News comparing this to Sandy? Are they insane? 
 

[wthrmn654]

Gusting already over 30 mph out here. 

[steve392]

Strong gusts when leaving for work earlier.  Had some light rain as i got to work. 

[wdrag]

Follow NWS warnings and statements... am asking for no message confusion from the non government mets.  A serious problem is developing for the NJ/LI coasts. 

In my retired state...hype sometimes is valuable and I think for our coastal residents, it's warranted for mitigating adverse impacts this afternoon through Monday night. 

No significant changes in the p1 outlook or thread title... if anything the thread title might be too conservative?

Operationally: am not relying on the 00z/12 EC...too slow.  I think 00z/12 ECAI look is much better.

Tides seem to be running almost 2' above normal now. Winds are gusting to gale force along the NJ coast southward to the Carolinas. Rainfall for the past 24 hours is sampled by climate sites attached.  

I will try at times to monitor and post reality, but have a celebration of life service this afternoon, and two grandchildren 3-5 years old tonight-Columbus Day.

You all have it...  I think it best to keep NWS messaging similar.  If you individually want to ignore... that is your ultimate responsibility. Try not to put first responders in jeopardy. Thanks.  707A/12

[dseagull]

4 hours ago, Jefflaw77 said:

Why is Fox News comparing this to Sandy? Are they insane? 
 

Fear porn sells.  

[TJW014]

Sustained 43 mph at Barnegat Light buoy at the end of the jetty. Peak gust of 48 mph. 

[dseagull]

16 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Sustained 43 mph at Barnegat Light buoy at the end of the jetty. Peak gust of 48 mph. 

We definitely had some good wind for a bit.   For reference, im exactly 4.56 miles as the crow flies across the bay.  So far, tidal departures not very impressive.  Quarter moon REALLY helps us.  Will post conditions reports shortly after breakfast.  Gotta beat the rain for a long dog walk.  

 

Next  high tide here, 1515.   

[wthrmn654]

33 mph gust so far,  tides are running much higher versus all week so far low tide is now with first high tide about 3 pm today.  Waves out here on the east end are quite impressive 2-4 feet( I'm very bad with guessing wave heights) plenty of white caps.  Cross sound ferry to be London still running, for now but I expect them to cancel boats soon!  Winds are deft increasing. The trees are screaming with all the leaves still on them.... 

Setup is deft there for decent power outages, especially areas that haven't had lines or poles upgraded since sandy.  Let's not forget,  prolonged dry/ drought on top of bugs or diseases will allow trees to be compromised/ weak. 

 

[wthrmn654]

[psv88]

Isp gusting to 35

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

Low tide got to 1.22 feet now were going up i don't see any reason at the moment where bad flooding doesn't pan out 

[weathermedic]

LAG gusted to 40 mph last hour and JFK to 39 mph. Of note, pressures still rising so that Canadian HP is still pushing down a bit. As has been said on here in previous days, it's not the strength of the LP but the pressure gradient that's causing the winds.

 

[weathermedic]

Per 9:18am OKX NWS AFD Update:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

Quick update to address near term trend, namely slower onset of rain and faster onset of winds.

[weathermedic]

Storm appears to be off the southern North Carolina coast (little swirl in the pic)

[wthrmn654]

Rain really wasn't suppose to get really going till about noon ish I thought. With that said. Slower moving storm? But a bit stronger resulting in stronger winds sooner? 

[Stormlover74]

Quite windy out here already but not expecting much rain today. Hrrr and nam are under .25" west of 95 through tonight

[Dark Star]

16 hours ago, MANDA said:

I'm still amazed at the job the LFM did with the Blizzard of 78.  Had it at 48 (only went out to 48 hours) hours and never let it go or wavered.  I have that as second hand information as I was in high school at the time.  I do remember speaking with Meteorologist Bill Korbel at the time and he was keeping me in the loop. I was one of his Weather Watchers back in the day.  Great guy and great Met.  LFM had a shaky reputation to say the least and was notorious for pulling the rug at the last minute.

I was filling for Bill Cullen (behind the scenes meteorologist) at CBS for 2 weeks and noticed the LFM was calling for an April snowstorm I believe in 82?  I told Steve Deschler and he told Irv Gikofsky.  Irv quickly dismissed it as impossible.

[Dark Star]

7 hours ago, Jefflaw77 said:

Why is Fox News comparing this to Sandy? Are they insane? 
 

Just watching Fox Weather and I thought Brandy Campbell (Fox Weather Correspondent) said "Amenometer".  Then 2 minutes later, she repeated "Amenometer".  

[MJO812]

12z Nam

[Brian5671]

NAMS are an east of NYC special and not til tonight

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

12z Nam

These models are truly an embarrassment, all of them. 

[Neblizzard]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

NAMS are an east of NYC special and not til tonight

You can see it on the radar . Long Island Special. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

These models are truly an embarrassment, all of them. 

Nam doesn't have rain until late tonight. Tomorrow it shows scattered showers. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Neblizzard said:

You can see it on the radar . Long Island Special. 

Juno 2.0

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

These models are truly an embarrassment, all of them. 

 

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

These models are truly an embarrassment, all of them. 

go on google and you will see articles explaining how weather models are not getting the full data from some weather ballons not being launched  since the government shutdown began.

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam doesn't have rain until late tonight. Tomorrow it shows scattered showers. 

this is a now casting event - models should be taken with a grain of salt especially since they are not receiving full data input since the gov shutdown began

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

 

go on google and you will see articles explaining how weather models are not getting the full data from some weather ballons not being launched  since the government shutdown began.

This goes way before the government shutdown though.  A few years of all of a sudden piss poor model accuracy imo.

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

 

go on google and you will see articles explaining how weather models are not getting the full data from some weather ballons not being launched  since the government shutdown began.

The storm is on the east coast for over a day. You're telling me there are balloons not launching on the east coast?

I thought it was only a few balloons in Alaska several days ago. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

This goes way before the government shutdown though.  A few years of all of a sudden piss poor model accuracy imo.

this thread is a good practice run here for the winter storms ahead - taking what you just mentioned into account too.........