October Banter 2025

[George BM]

 

Friday, October 31, 2025 8:31AM EDT

Winter Storm Warning in effect from 3PM EDT this afternoon until midnight Saturday, November 1, 2025.

Moderate to heavy rain continues to move through the region this morning with a few elevated thunderstorms towards central VA and southern MD. This activity will taper off to a few showers and drizzle by lunchtime. Temps all the while remaining unseasonably cold with upper 30s/ lower 40s commonplace.

By the early afternoon our attention turns to the powerful and sharp shortwave trough approaching from the WSW providing ample lift for showers and elevated thunderstorms to move into and develop over the I-81 corridor. Mid-level temps will also cool as the shortwave moves in resulting in increased elevated instability with MUCAPE in excess of 250 J/kg possible. As we get into the mid-afternoon hours numerous bands of showers and elevated thunderstorms will overspread the region. The strongest storms could have small to medium sized hail (up to penny sized). As heights crash as the shortwave moves in strong dynamic cooling will take place resulting in rain changing over to a very heavy wet snow from west to east (most likely around 2pm along the 1-81 corridor. 3-5pm in the urban corridor and after 5pm east of I-95.) Snowfall rates will be very heavy in excess of 3-4 inches per hour (possibly 5”+/hr in the heaviest convective bands) w/ occasional lightning from convective elements continuing through the evening.

Winds will gust upwards of 30 to 40 mph as the surface low rapidly deepens over the Delmarva peninsula resulting in near-zero visibility at times with the snow.

Although this will be a quick hitting storm with snowfall tapering off everywhere before midnight the extreme snowfall rates will result in snowfall totals off 14 to 20 inches being commonplace throughout the majority of the forecast area with localized amounts approaching 24 inches possible. Snow drifts could exceed 4 feet. Furthermore, with the wet paste-like consistency of the snow expected, widespread tree damage and power outages are probable.

Once snow tapers off skies will clear overnight with temperatures settling in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures will remain below average with 40s for highs and 20s for lows through the weekend and into next week.

This is going to be a very high impact event that the area will feel the effects from for weeks to come. Please make sure you have a way to get electricity and stay up to date with the changing weather conditions.

[AlexD1990]

I live for these imaginary storm warnings. 

[MillvilleWx]

From your lips to hopefully God's ears @George BM

[North Balti Zen]

Grew up and remain a Reds fan.

Adopted the Orioles as my second team when I moved here in 2009. 

I literally laughed out loud when this note hit my timeline this AM -

 

Quote

The Reds have lost their 7th straight postseason game, tied for the second-longest active streak in MLB. Only the Orioles currently have a longer losing streak (10).

Yep. That tracks. 

 

 

[MillvilleWx]

2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Grew up and remain a Reds fan.

Adopted the Orioles as my second team when I moved here in 2009. 

I literally laughed out loud when this note hit my timeline this AM -

 

Yep. That tracks. 

 

 

And you're a Bengals fan. How in the hell are you not an alcoholic? 

[North Balti Zen]

AND I hope for actual snow in winter.

 

I am a hopeless eternal optimist - or a certified masochist. 

 

Why not both, I guess...

[bncho]

21 hours ago, George BM said:

 

Friday, October 31, 2025 8:31AM EDT

Winter Storm Warning in effect from 3PM EDT this afternoon until midnight Saturday, November 1, 2025.

Moderate to heavy rain continues to move through the region this morning with a few elevated thunderstorms towards central VA and southern MD. This activity will taper off to a few showers and drizzle by lunchtime. Temps all the while remaining unseasonably cold with upper 30s/ lower 40s commonplace.

By the early afternoon our attention turns to the powerful and sharp shortwave trough approaching from the WSW providing ample lift for showers and elevated thunderstorms to move into and develop over the I-81 corridor. Mid-level temps will also cool as the shortwave moves in resulting in increased elevated instability with MUCAPE in excess of 250 J/kg possible. As we get into the mid-afternoon hours numerous bands of showers and elevated thunderstorms will overspread the region. The strongest storms could have small to medium sized hail (up to penny sized). As heights crash as the shortwave moves in strong dynamic cooling will take place resulting in rain changing over to a very heavy wet snow from west to east (most likely around 2pm along the 1-81 corridor. 3-5pm in the urban corridor and after 5pm east of I-95.) Snowfall rates will be very heavy in excess of 3-4 inches per hour (possibly 5”+/hr in the heaviest convective bands) w/ occasional lightning from convective elements continuing through the evening.

Winds will gust upwards of 30 to 40 mph as the surface low rapidly deepens over the Delmarva peninsula resulting in near-zero visibility at times with the snow.

Although this will be a quick hitting storm with snowfall tapering off everywhere before midnight the extreme snowfall rates will result in snowfall totals off 14 to 20 inches being commonplace throughout the majority of the forecast area with localized amounts approaching 24 inches possible. Snow drifts could exceed 4 feet. Furthermore, with the wet paste-like consistency of the snow expected, widespread tree damage and power outages are probable.

Once snow tapers off skies will clear overnight with temperatures settling in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures will remain below average with 40s for highs and 20s for lows through the weekend and into next week.

This is going to be a very high impact event that the area will feel the effects from for weeks to come. Please make sure you have a way to get electricity and stay up to date with the changing weather conditions.

"imagine if the rain were snow"

[bncho]

On 9/30/2025 at 10:31 PM, George BM said:

 

Friday, October 31, 2025 8:31AM EDT

Winter Storm Warning in effect from 3PM EDT this afternoon until midnight Saturday, November 1, 2025.

Moderate to heavy rain continues to move through the region this morning with a few elevated thunderstorms towards central VA and southern MD. This activity will taper off to a few showers and drizzle by lunchtime. Temps all the while remaining unseasonably cold with upper 30s/ lower 40s commonplace.

By the early afternoon our attention turns to the powerful and sharp shortwave trough approaching from the WSW providing ample lift for showers and elevated thunderstorms to move into and develop over the I-81 corridor. Mid-level temps will also cool as the shortwave moves in resulting in increased elevated instability with MUCAPE in excess of 250 J/kg possible. As we get into the mid-afternoon hours numerous bands of showers and elevated thunderstorms will overspread the region. The strongest storms could have small to medium sized hail (up to penny sized). As heights crash as the shortwave moves in strong dynamic cooling will take place resulting in rain changing over to a very heavy wet snow from west to east (most likely around 2pm along the 1-81 corridor. 3-5pm in the urban corridor and after 5pm east of I-95.) Snowfall rates will be very heavy in excess of 3-4 inches per hour (possibly 5”+/hr in the heaviest convective bands) w/ occasional lightning from convective elements continuing through the evening.

Winds will gust upwards of 30 to 40 mph as the surface low rapidly deepens over the Delmarva peninsula resulting in near-zero visibility at times with the snow.

Although this will be a quick hitting storm with snowfall tapering off everywhere before midnight the extreme snowfall rates will result in snowfall totals off 14 to 20 inches being commonplace throughout the majority of the forecast area with localized amounts approaching 24 inches possible. Snow drifts could exceed 4 feet. Furthermore, with the wet paste-like consistency of the snow expected, widespread tree damage and power outages are probable.

Once snow tapers off skies will clear overnight with temperatures settling in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures will remain below average with 40s for highs and 20s for lows through the weekend and into next week.

This is going to be a very high impact event that the area will feel the effects from for weeks to come. Please make sure you have a way to get electricity and stay up to date with the changing weather conditions.

 

[Jebman]

Wet snow currently falling at 9000 feet and higher at Mammoth! Not accumulating, but this is pretty exciting this early, even for them!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

At Village level 8,100 feet it is a steady rain. You can see this in the puddles.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village

Winter is approaching already in the eastern Sierra!

[Maestrobjwa]

8 hours ago, bncho said:

 

Even on a realistic scale that kind of gradient ain't been present since 2016, lol I feel like if/when "north and west of the city" becomes a thing again...maybe things are turning for the better.

[pazzo83]

i hope we get a big nor'easter this winter.

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

i hope we get a big nor'easter this winter.

If I gambled I'd bet 5 paychecks that that won't happen this winter!

[Jebman]

On 9/30/2025 at 9:31 PM, George BM said:

 

Friday, October 31, 2025 8:31AM EDT

Winter Storm Warning in effect from 3PM EDT this afternoon until midnight Saturday, November 1, 2025.

Moderate to heavy rain continues to move through the region this morning with a few elevated thunderstorms towards central VA and southern MD. This activity will taper off to a few showers and drizzle by lunchtime. Temps all the while remaining unseasonably cold with upper 30s/ lower 40s commonplace.

By the early afternoon our attention turns to the powerful and sharp shortwave trough approaching from the WSW providing ample lift for showers and elevated thunderstorms to move into and develop over the I-81 corridor. Mid-level temps will also cool as the shortwave moves in resulting in increased elevated instability with MUCAPE in excess of 250 J/kg possible. As we get into the mid-afternoon hours numerous bands of showers and elevated thunderstorms will overspread the region. The strongest storms could have small to medium sized hail (up to penny sized). As heights crash as the shortwave moves in strong dynamic cooling will take place resulting in rain changing over to a very heavy wet snow from west to east (most likely around 2pm along the 1-81 corridor. 3-5pm in the urban corridor and after 5pm east of I-95.) Snowfall rates will be very heavy in excess of 3-4 inches per hour (possibly 5”+/hr in the heaviest convective bands) w/ occasional lightning from convective elements continuing through the evening.

Winds will gust upwards of 30 to 40 mph as the surface low rapidly deepens over the Delmarva peninsula resulting in near-zero visibility at times with the snow.

Although this will be a quick hitting storm with snowfall tapering off everywhere before midnight the extreme snowfall rates will result in snowfall totals off 14 to 20 inches being commonplace throughout the majority of the forecast area with localized amounts approaching 24 inches possible. Snow drifts could exceed 4 feet. Furthermore, with the wet paste-like consistency of the snow expected, widespread tree damage and power outages are probable.

Once snow tapers off skies will clear overnight with temperatures settling in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures will remain below average with 40s for highs and 20s for lows through the weekend and into next week.

This is going to be a very high impact event that the area will feel the effects from for weeks to come. Please make sure you have a way to get electricity and stay up to date with the changing weather conditions.

Nice storm, GBM! Need to find a way to get this puppy to slow down and get captured! Love to see you guys end up with a wet nine feet of fresh snow!

[Jebman]

Winter is champing at the bit in the Sierra!!!

Snow is falling at altitude at Mammoth Ski Resort. Looks to be 2-3 inches now on the ground and even pavements! These places have surface chillax characteristics for preconsolidation and possibly even some limited surface frigidization. Snowpack can now be seen on the ground at the Woolly Cam and also at the Main Lodge.

Woolly Cam https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Main Lodge https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

Lights are out but reflectivity/surface albedo are way too high for that not to be at least an inch of wet snow, possibly 2-3 inches, enough for a meaningful jebwalk. Snow will continue even as temps dip to 30. Village Level is all rain, it can be seen in the puddles. That rain is at least moderate. Imagine the snow at higher elevations!

Village level, steady rainfall https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village

Palisades Tahoe has a coating to an inch at the Scope, which is now the only camera operative there.

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=palisades

[MN Transplant]

7 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

i hope we get a big nor'easter this winter.

Yeah, we need the rain.

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, we need the rain.

Yes, but you need the snow too and you are gonna get it.