October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Sundog said:

What is up with the persistent torching during Christmas week?

It's like the planet knows to mess with us during the worst possible time. 

It has become one of our most persistent annual climate patterns. For some reason the late December temperatures have been warming faster than during early December. So even if the models early in December aren’t showing a big warm up closer to the Solstice, they always play catch up as the period gets closer. 
 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It has become one of our most persistent annual climate patterns. For some reason the late December temperatures have been warming faster than during early December. So even if the models early in December aren’t showing a big warm up closer to the Solstice, they always play catch up as the period gets closer. 
 

 

 

 

The change has been dramatic. During 1961-1990, the second half of December was 4.3 degrees colder than the first half in NYC. During 1991-2020, it was 3.0 degrees colder and since 2000, it is just 1.9 degrees colder during the second half of December.

[FPizz]

56 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

TWC has 79 for both Saturday and Sunday for Belmar

Still says 72 this morning with the update from the national weather service.  80 here though.  Maybe a lake day.

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Still says 72 this morning with the update from the national weather service.  80 here though.  Maybe a lake day.

The 72 is wrong. No model has temps that low for the weekend for NJ. 

[WX-PA]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The change has been dramatic. During 1961-1990, the second half of December was 4.3 degrees colder than the first half in NYC. During 1991-2020, it was 3.0 degrees colder and since 2000, it is just 1.9 degrees colder during the second half of December.

I doubt mother nature knows it's Christmas..lol..all kidding aside I'm sure it will even out to normal as it usually does with climate

[FPizz]

43.3

[lee59]

September was the first month this year warmer than the same month last year, at Central Park. Of course that is not saying a lot as last year tied for the warmest year.

[lee59]

32 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

I doubt mother nature knows it's Christmas..lol..all kidding aside I'm sure it will even out to normal as it usually does with climate

We also had a white Christmas last year, first time in a while.

[psv88]

46. 

[donsutherland1]

52 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

I doubt mother nature knows it's Christmas..lol..all kidding aside I'm sure it will even out to normal as it usually does with climate

I just went back to the whole climate record. This isn't the first time that it's happened. I suspect that the current narrowing has a climate component in addition to a cyclical/internal variability component.

My hypothesis about a climate component's being involved is based on the shrinking deep cold pool resulting in warming winters and a delay and a shortening duration of the coldest outbreaks, in general. The result is that the frequency of extreme cold is falling and the distribution of extreme cold is being pushed into the first half of January.

Prior to 1990, about 12.1% of NYC's single-digit or colder lows occurred during December 16-31. Since 1990, that figure has fallen to 5.0%. On a 30-year rolling basis, the December 16-31 frequency of such cold is lower than during the earlier period where the temperature difference between December 1-15 and December 16-31 narrowed substantially. The frequency of such cold has declined markedly for the December 16-31 period. Hence, there appears to be a climate component involved this time around with the narrowing of the temperature difference between the first and second halves of December.

Distribution of Lows < 10°:

Frequency of Lows < 10°:

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Muttontown and a bit northwest of there is such an ideal spot for radiational cooling for a location so "close" to the city. 

Yeah my station in Muttontown is at a low elevation too at 154' compared to the surrounding area.

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Yeah my station in Muttontown is at a low elevation too at 154' compared to the surrounding area.

I remember like 20+ years ago I drove through there one night in October and I hit 38 degrees on the car thermometer while back at home in NE Queens (not that urban compared to the rest of the city) it was still in the mid 50s. 

It's so rural and beautiful there. 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Yeah my station in Muttontown is at a low elevation too at 154' compared to the surrounding area.

That leads to cold air pooling. My old house was in a low spot in town and cooled very well. New spot on the hill not as great. Compared to my old spot in the lower area it’s about 2 degrees warmer on RC nights 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

I remember like 20+ years ago I drove through there one night in October and I hit 38 degrees on the car thermometer while back at home in NE Queens (not that urban compared to the rest of the city) it was still in the mid 50s. 

It's so rural and beautiful there. 

That’s why the average home price there is $15 million lol

[MANDA]

Overnight low here of 45.  Perfect.  Windows open until just before daybreak.  Walpack bottomed out at 31 with lots of l/m 40's over northern and central NJ.  The coming warmup will truly suck after these nice crisp few days.  At least some rainfall on the horizon in about a week.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, lee59 said:

We also had a white Christmas last year, first time in a while.

Yeah, it was nice. But the 55+ warmup occurred right on schedule just before on the 17tth and 18th. Then mid 60s warmth to close out the month.

Sum	1396	953	-	-	833	0	4.39	3.5
2024-12-17	61	46	53.5	15.9	11	0	0.02	0.0	0
2024-12-18	55	39	47.0	9.6	18	0	0.23	0.0	0
2024-12-19	47	36	41.5	4.4	23	0	0.04	0.0	0
2024-12-20	39	33	36.0	-0.9	29	0	0.05	0.3	0
2024-12-21	33	20	26.5	-10.1	38	0	0.08	2.2	2
2024-12-22	23	13	18.0	-18.4	47	0	0.00	0.0	1
2024-12-23	29	11	20.0	-16.2	45	0	0.00	0.0	1
2024-12-24	41	26	33.5	-2.4	31	0	0.07	1.0	T
2024-12-25	36	27	31.5	-4.2	33	0	0.00	0.0	T
2024-12-26	39	22	30.5	-5.0	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-12-27	44	22	33.0	-2.3	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-12-28	48	38	43.0	7.9	22	0	0.71	0.0	0
2024-12-29	65	46	55.5	20.6	9	0	0.19	0.0	0
2024-12-30	59	44	51.5	16.8	13	0	0.21	0.0	0
2024-12-31	54	38	46.0	11.5	19	0	0.71	0.0	0