October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[wthrmn654]

0.83 this morning.  I win! 

[wthrmn654]

[lee59]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

0.83 this morning.  I win! 

Yea the rain was west, then disappeared when it came to Long Island, except the far east where it came back.

[wthrmn654]

@Brian5671 don't be jealous 

[Dark Star]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It reminds me of when the 1978 February Blizzard was predicted a week out, whatever happened to the model that did that anyway? We could use it with how poor skills the models have been showing for winter storms (or the lack thereof) the last several years.

 

The Limited Fine Mesh...

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would get occasional months where some part of the area would get with 10” since 2003. The last month for us was August 2024 and at MPO May 2025.

Many spots have been well below 40” over the last 12 months. My area has only had around 32” in the last 12 months which is too dry in this much warmer climate. In the old days we could get away with some drier years since a cooler climate didn’t dry out so quickly during the warm season. 

Long range precipitation forecasting is very uncertain. So we can’t say based off one year that the wet pattern since 2003 has shifted. But the current dry pattern since September 2024 has been defined by storms underperforming model forecasts like we are seeing today. 

We will know that this drought is over when and if the storms start beating model expectations. It will probably lead to someone getting near or over 10” on the month and repeated very wet months. Since in the warmer climate we need something closer to 50” due to the much warmer summers drying things out very quickly. 

 

 

50 inches sounds way too much for this area and much more like the Gulf Coast.

I think we're seeing a pattern of drier summers and somewhat wet winters, sort of like how we had in 1966-67.  That was a very hot summer followed by a very snowy winter.  Other combos like that were 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03, and  2010-2011.  How do you compare the current pattern vs those three summer to winter couplets of dry summers followed by wet winters?  Lots of snow after hot and dry summers too....

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

If you get 40 inches now with temps 3 degrees warmer, it's not the same as getting 40 inches way back when it was cooler. 

The problem with more rainfall is many more infectious mosquitoes plus other predatory insects as well as more mold and more pollen.  I think it's better if we just chop down all this excess foliage.  We now have a new infectious mosquito here which never lived here before carrying an exotic disease which we have never seen before.  It's called Chimchungachunga Disease or something like that.

A big positive with less rain I've noticed is much less in the way of mosquitoes and insects in general, fewer allergies and much less mold.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would get occasional months where some part of the area would get with 10” since 2003. The last month for us was August 2024 and at MPO May 2025.

Many spots have been well below 40” over the last 12 months. My area has only had around 32” in the last 12 months which is too dry in this much warmer climate. In the old days we could get away with some drier years since a cooler climate didn’t dry out so quickly during the warm season. 

Long range precipitation forecasting is very uncertain. So we can’t say based off one year that the wet pattern since 2003 has shifted. But the current dry pattern since September 2024 has been defined by storms underperforming model forecasts like we are seeing today. 

We will know that this drought is over when and if the storms start beating model expectations. It will probably lead to someone getting near or over 10” on the month and repeated very wet months. Since in the warmer climate we need something closer to 50” due to the much warmer summers drying things out very quickly. 

 

 

One of the many side effects of a wetter climate no one talks about is the rise of mosquitoes carrying infectious diseases never before seen here (as well as other parasitic insects and worms.)  Something I've noticed in our hot dry summers is very few mosquitoes, less predatory insects, much less mold and lower pollen levels.

We should just cut down the foliage overgrowth if they can't handle the lower rainfall.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The problem with more rainfall is many more infectious mosquitoes plus other predatory insects as well as more mold and more pollen.  I think it's better if we just chop down all this excess foliage.  We now have a new infectious mosquito here which never lived here before carrying an exotic disease which we have never seen before.  It's called Chimchungachunga Disease or something like that.

A big positive with less rain I've noticed is much less in the way of mosquitoes and insects in general, fewer allergies and much less mold.

Chikungunya Disease 

Definition:

Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection that causes severe joint pain, fever, and other symptoms. 

Causes: 

The Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes.

Symptoms: 

Rash

Fever

Severe joint pain, often in the hands, feet, wrists, and ankles

Headache

Muscle pain

Fatigue

Nausea

Complications: 

Most people recover from chikungunya within a week or two. However, some may experience chronic joint pain, fatigue, or other complications, such as: Arthritis, Eye inflammation, and Neurological problems. 

Treatment: 

There is no specific treatment for chikungunya. Treatment focuses on relieving symptoms, such as: Rest, Pain relievers, Fever reducers, and Fluids. 

Prevention: 

Avoid mosquito bites by wearing long-sleeved shirts and pants, using insect repellent, and staying indoors during peak mosquito biting hours. 

Remove standing water around your home where mosquitoes can breed. 

If traveling to areas where chikungunya is present, get vaccinated and take precautions to avoid mosquito bites. 

Additional Information:

Chikungunya is endemic in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world, including Africa, Asia, and the Indian Ocean islands. 

The disease was first reported in Tanzania in 1953. 

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared chikungunya a global public health emergency in 2014. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Chikungunya Disease 

Definition:

Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection that causes severe joint pain, fever, and other symptoms. 

Causes: 

The Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes.

Symptoms: 

Rash

Fever

Severe joint pain, often in the hands, feet, wrists, and ankles

Headache

Muscle pain

Fatigue

Nausea

Complications: 

Most people recover from chikungunya within a week or two. However, some may experience chronic joint pain, fatigue, or other complications, such as: Arthritis, Eye inflammation, and Neurological problems. 

Treatment: 

There is no specific treatment for chikungunya. Treatment focuses on relieving symptoms, such as: Rest, Pain relievers, Fever reducers, and Fluids. 

Prevention: 

Avoid mosquito bites by wearing long-sleeved shirts and pants, using insect repellent, and staying indoors during peak mosquito biting hours. 

Remove standing water around your home where mosquitoes can breed. 

If traveling to areas where chikungunya is present, get vaccinated and take precautions to avoid mosquito bites. 

Additional Information:

Chikungunya is endemic in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world, including Africa, Asia, and the Indian Ocean islands. 

The disease was first reported in Tanzania in 1953. 

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared chikungunya a global public health emergency in 2014. 

Okay, just found it, well this mosquito borne illness is now in New York

[LibertyBell]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Okay, just found it, well this mosquito borne illness is now in New York

Yes, chikungunya is in the United States, though locally transmitted cases are rare and have not been reported since 2019 until a recent case was confirmed in New York. The virus is most commonly spread to the U.S. through travelers returning from endemic areas in other countries, such as Africa, Asia, and the Caribbean. 

Recent case: 

A locally acquired case was confirmed in Nassau County, New York, in October 2025, marking the first U.S. case of local transmission in six years. 

Primary mode of transmission: 

The disease is spread by mosquitoes, specifically the Aedes genus, which can be found in the U.S. and its territories. 

Travel-related cases: 

Before the recent New York case, most U.S. cases were from travelers who had visited areas where the virus is prevalent. 

Geographic history: 

Past local transmission has been identified in areas like Florida, Texas, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. 

Symptoms: 

The virus causes symptoms such as fever, joint pain, headache, muscle pain, joint swelling, and rash. While it is rarely fatal, symptoms can be severe and long-lasting. 

[psv88]

0.02”. Crushed. Did have a strong wind gust around 2 am

[Snowlover11]

congrats boston

[IrishRob17]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would get occasional months where some part of the area would get with 10” since 2003. The last month for us was August 2024 and at MPO May 2025.

Many spots have been well below 40” over the last 12 months. My area has only had around 32” in the last 12 months which is too dry in this much warmer climate. In the old days we could get away with some drier years since a cooler climate didn’t dry out so quickly during the warm season. 

Long range precipitation forecasting is very uncertain. So we can’t say based off one year that the wet pattern since 2003 has shifted. But the current dry pattern since September 2024 has been defined by storms underperforming model forecasts like we are seeing today. 

We will know that this drought is over when and if the storms start beating model expectations. It will probably lead to someone getting near or over 10” on the month and repeated very wet months. Since in the warmer climate we need something closer to 50” due to the much warmer summers drying things out very quickly. 

 

 

My 9.48" this past May boosted me over 40" to 41.85" from 10/1/24-9/30/25. 

[psv88]

From that radar you would think that we got crushed 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

50 inches sounds way too much for this area and much more like the Gulf Coast.

I think we're seeing a pattern of drier summers and somewhat wet winters, sort of like how we had in 1966-67.  That was a very hot summer followed by a very snowy winter.  Other combos like that were 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03, and  2010-2011.  How do you compare the current pattern vs those three summer to winter couplets of dry summers followed by wet winters?  Lots of snow after hot and dry summers too....

 

50” inches of rain a year works out to just a little over 4.00” a month which isn’t that wet in a climate as warm as ours has become.  My area has been running below 3.00” monthly averaged out over the last year which is too low for a climate this warm. All the vegetation was dried out this summer with the record heat. Plus some areas up here had water restrictions due to the reservoirs running lower than average. Remember, warmer climates require more rain. 

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, psv88 said:

From that radar you would think that we got crushed 

I'm glad we got the noreaster rains a week ago-otherwise this would have been bad missing the rains

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

50” inches of rain a year works out to just a little over 4.00” a month which isn’t that wet in a climate as warm as ours has become.  My area has been running below 3.00” monthly averaged out over the last year which is too low for a climate this warm. All the vegetation was dried out this summer with the record heat. Plus some areas up here had water restrictions due to the reservoirs running lower than average. Remember, warmer climates require more rain. 

it's not normal for us because we aren't as hot as the Gulf Coast.  I find 3.5 inches of rain much better than 4, what we are going through now is just balancing the scales vs the excessive rainfall of the past several years.  I'm sure it all averages out to 40 or just over 40 over the entire period of your station's record.

I don't consider vegetation drying out a bad thing at all, it means lower pollen levels and much lower levels of parasitic insects and fewer weeds.

We don't really need rain as long as our reservoirs are near or over 90%.  If the reservoirs get low like they were in the 1980s then it becomes an issue.

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

My 9.48" this past May boosted me over 40" to 41.85" from 10/1/24-9/30/25. 

wow thats a lot

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

congrats boston

what caused the front to intensify so much after it was already dying as it passed over our area?

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what caused the front to intensify so much after it was already dying as it passed over our area?

trough was going negative and a storm formed on the front

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

trough was going negative and a storm formed on the front

sounds like a winter Miller B situation lol

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's not normal for us because we aren't as hot as the Gulf Coast.  I find 3.5 inches of rain much better than 4, what we are going through now is just balancing the scales vs the excessive rainfall of the past several years.  I'm sure it all averages out to 40 or just over 40 over the entire period of your station's record.

I don't consider vegetation drying out a bad thing at all, it means lower pollen levels and much lower levels of parasitic insects and fewer weeds.

We don't really need rain as long as our reservoirs are near or over 90%.  If the reservoirs get low like they were in the 1980s then it becomes an issue.

50.84” of rain has been our long term average since 1971 at a place like NYC so it isn’t too much rain.  But short term hourly and daily heavy rainfall extremes have been increasing over this period especially since 2003. This has lead to flooding issues. It’s when we get closer to 60”or higher of rain on the year that issues with too much annual rainfall develop. From 1871 to 1970 NYC averaged 42.89” which worked out OK since the climate was so much cooler. Except for the 1960s which had the record low rainfall in the 30s and even 20s with the 500 year drought.

[MJO812]

Need this to continue 

[IrishRob17]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

50.84” of rain has been our long term average since 1971 at a place like NYC so it isn’t too much rain.  But short term hourly and daily heavy rainfall extremes have been increasing over this period especially since 2003. This has lead to flooding issues. It’s when we get closer to 60”or higher of rain on the year that issues with too much annual rainfall develop. From 1871 to 1970 NYC averaged 42.89” which worked out OK since the climate was so much cooler. Except for the 1960s which had the record low rainfall in the 30s and even 20s with the 500 year drought.

I can only go back to 2017 to look at trust worthy annual precipitation amounts since I didn't start melting down frozen precipitation to get accurate readings until the fall of 2016. Boy, I forgot how wet 2023 was, 66.85" that year for me but I digress. My annual average is 49.18", so right in the ball park of what you posted above. 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

If I put 2 buckets outside, I think both would equal 40" for the year if it was 57 degrees outside or 54.

Hello. 

I'm talking about evapotranspiration in summer causing more water evaporating at a quicker rate. 

You know how how much more strain a +3 July puts on water supplies? Now add a couple more degrees over that for an above normal July for our current normals. 

So say a +5 July or August. 

If you think you can retain the same amount of water with months that much warmer than they used to be you would be mistaken. 

I was talking about parched surfaces and water supplies and drought. 

[FPizz]

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Hello. 

I'm talking about evapotranspiration in summer causing more water evaporating at a quicker rate. 

You know how how much more strain a +3 July puts on water supplies? Now add a couple more degrees over that for an above normal July for our current normals. 

So say a +5 July or August. 

If you think you can retain the same amount of water with months that much warmer than they used to be you would be mistaken. 

I was talking about parched surfaces and water supplies and drought. 

You should have said that, not that 40" wasn't equal to 40". 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

50.84” of rain has been our long term average since 1971 at a place like NYC so it isn’t too much rain.  But short term hourly and daily heavy rainfall extremes have been increasing over this period especially since 2003. This has lead to flooding issues. It’s when we get closer to 60”or higher of rain on the year that issues with too much annual rainfall develop. From 1871 to 1970 NYC averaged 42.89” which worked out OK since the climate was so much cooler. Except for the 1960s which had the record low rainfall in the 30s and even 20s with the 500 year drought.

I thought it was around 42 inches because growing up, that's what The Weather Almanac listed as the long term average for NYC.... This book was published in 1973 with an update in 1991 (I have both).  The last 30 year average it mentions is the 1961-1990 (the previous one was 1951-80).  What were NYC rainfall normals for 1951-1980 and 1961-1990?

Was it really that much cooler prior to 1970-- look at all these hot and dry summers we had before:

1944, 1948, 1949, 1953, 1955, 1966, we have some extremely long and very extreme heatwaves in there that have not been matched since.

 

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Hello. 

I'm talking about evapotranspiration in summer causing more water evaporating at a quicker rate. 

You know how how much more strain a +3 July puts on water supplies? Now add a couple more degrees over that for an above normal July for our current normals. 

So say a +5 July or August. 

If you think you can retain the same amount of water with months that much warmer than they used to be you would be mistaken. 

I was talking about parched surfaces and water supplies and drought. 

The question is do you really want all that extra rainfall if it means more creepy and parasitic insects, more mold and higher pollen levels and more weeds? I'd much rather we just burn off the vegetation.  My allergies were lowest in 2010 and that's no coincidence.

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Hello. 

I'm talking about evapotranspiration in summer causing more water evaporating at a quicker rate. 

You know how how much more strain a +3 July puts on water supplies? Now add a couple more degrees over that for an above normal July for our current normals. 

So say a +5 July or August. 

If you think you can retain the same amount of water with months that much warmer than they used to be you would be mistaken. 

I was talking about parched surfaces and water supplies and drought. 

But take a summer like 2010 as an example, it was both hot and dry and we didn't have the kind of drought we had back in the 1960s or 1980s.

Our reservoirs have been fine for decades now.  I think the last real drought we had was in 2002.