October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Sundog said:

What is up with the persistent torching during Christmas week?

It's like the planet knows to mess with us during the worst possible time. 

It has become one of our most persistent annual climate patterns. For some reason the late December temperatures have been warming faster than during early December. So even if the models early in December aren’t showing a big warm up closer to the Solstice, they always play catch up as the period gets closer. 
 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It has become one of our most persistent annual climate patterns. For some reason the late December temperatures have been warming faster than during early December. So even if the models early in December aren’t showing a big warm up closer to the Solstice, they always play catch up as the period gets closer. 
 

 

 

 

The change has been dramatic. During 1961-1990, the second half of December was 4.3 degrees colder than the first half in NYC. During 1991-2020, it was 3.0 degrees colder and since 2000, it is just 1.9 degrees colder during the second half of December.

[FPizz]

56 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

TWC has 79 for both Saturday and Sunday for Belmar

Still says 72 this morning with the update from the national weather service.  80 here though.  Maybe a lake day.

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Still says 72 this morning with the update from the national weather service.  80 here though.  Maybe a lake day.

The 72 is wrong. No model has temps that low for the weekend for NJ. 

[WX-PA]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The change has been dramatic. During 1961-1990, the second half of December was 4.3 degrees colder than the first half in NYC. During 1991-2020, it was 3.0 degrees colder and since 2000, it is just 1.9 degrees colder during the second half of December.

I doubt mother nature knows it's Christmas..lol..all kidding aside I'm sure it will even out to normal as it usually does with climate

[FPizz]

43.3

[lee59]

September was the first month this year warmer than the same month last year, at Central Park. Of course that is not saying a lot as last year tied for the warmest year.

[lee59]

32 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

I doubt mother nature knows it's Christmas..lol..all kidding aside I'm sure it will even out to normal as it usually does with climate

We also had a white Christmas last year, first time in a while.

[psv88]

46. 

[donsutherland1]

52 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

I doubt mother nature knows it's Christmas..lol..all kidding aside I'm sure it will even out to normal as it usually does with climate

I just went back to the whole climate record. This isn't the first time that it's happened. I suspect that the current narrowing has a climate component in addition to a cyclical/internal variability component.

My hypothesis about a climate component's being involved is based on the shrinking deep cold pool resulting in warming winters and a delay and a shortening duration of the coldest outbreaks, in general. The result is that the frequency of extreme cold is falling and the distribution of extreme cold is being pushed into the first half of January.

Prior to 1990, about 12.1% of NYC's single-digit or colder lows occurred during December 16-31. Since 1990, that figure has fallen to 5.0%. On a 30-year rolling basis, the December 16-31 frequency of such cold is lower than during the earlier period where the temperature difference between December 1-15 and December 16-31 narrowed substantially. The frequency of such cold has declined markedly for the December 16-31 period. Hence, there appears to be a climate component involved this time around with the narrowing of the temperature difference between the first and second halves of December.

Distribution of Lows < 10°:

Frequency of Lows < 10°:

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Muttontown and a bit northwest of there is such an ideal spot for radiational cooling for a location so "close" to the city. 

Yeah my station in Muttontown is at a low elevation too at 154' compared to the surrounding area.

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Yeah my station in Muttontown is at a low elevation too at 154' compared to the surrounding area.

I remember like 20+ years ago I drove through there one night in October and I hit 38 degrees on the car thermometer while back at home in NE Queens (not that urban compared to the rest of the city) it was still in the mid 50s. 

It's so rural and beautiful there. 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Yeah my station in Muttontown is at a low elevation too at 154' compared to the surrounding area.

That leads to cold air pooling. My old house was in a low spot in town and cooled very well. New spot on the hill not as great. Compared to my old spot in the lower area it’s about 2 degrees warmer on RC nights 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

I remember like 20+ years ago I drove through there one night in October and I hit 38 degrees on the car thermometer while back at home in NE Queens (not that urban compared to the rest of the city) it was still in the mid 50s. 

It's so rural and beautiful there. 

That’s why the average home price there is $15 million lol

[MANDA]

Overnight low here of 45.  Perfect.  Windows open until just before daybreak.  Walpack bottomed out at 31 with lots of l/m 40's over northern and central NJ.  The coming warmup will truly suck after these nice crisp few days.  At least some rainfall on the horizon in about a week.

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, lee59 said:

We also had a white Christmas last year, first time in a while.

Yeah, it was nice. But the 55+ warmup occurred right on schedule just before on the 17th and 18th. Then mid 60s warmth to close out the month.

Sum	1396	953	-	-	833	0	4.39	3.5
2024-12-17	61	46	53.5	15.9	11	0	0.02	0.0	0
2024-12-18	55	39	47.0	9.6	18	0	0.23	0.0	0
2024-12-19	47	36	41.5	4.4	23	0	0.04	0.0	0
2024-12-20	39	33	36.0	-0.9	29	0	0.05	0.3	0
2024-12-21	33	20	26.5	-10.1	38	0	0.08	2.2	2
2024-12-22	23	13	18.0	-18.4	47	0	0.00	0.0	1
2024-12-23	29	11	20.0	-16.2	45	0	0.00	0.0	1
2024-12-24	41	26	33.5	-2.4	31	0	0.07	1.0	T
2024-12-25	36	27	31.5	-4.2	33	0	0.00	0.0	T
2024-12-26	39	22	30.5	-5.0	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-12-27	44	22	33.0	-2.3	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-12-28	48	38	43.0	7.9	22	0	0.71	0.0	0
2024-12-29	65	46	55.5	20.6	9	0	0.19	0.0	0
2024-12-30	59	44	51.5	16.8	13	0	0.21	0.0	0
2024-12-31	54	38	46.0	11.5	19	0	0.71	0.0	0

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Still says 72 this morning with the update from the national weather service.  80 here though.  Maybe a lake day.

Don pointed out the strange discrepancy in the NWS forecast for down there, as they have 72 for Belmar but 77 for South Belmar. It doesn't make any sense. It definitely will be much warmer than 72 at Belmar this weekend since the wind will be switching to the southwest. I'm going down to Seaside Heights on Saturday and I'll be surprised if it isn't in the upper 70s. 

[winterwx21]

Had a low temp of 47 here this morning. 

We have the 4 day blast of summer with highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday through Tuesday, and then I'm hoping we get some heavy downpours with the front on Wednesday like last night's Euro showed. Then a nice cooldown for late week with high temps in the 60s. 

[FPizz]

16 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Don pointed out the strange discrepancy in the NWS forecast for down there, as they have 72 for Belmar but 77 for South Belmar. It doesn't make any sense. It definitely will be much warmer than 72 at Belmar this weekend since the wind will be switching to the southwest. I'm going down to Seaside Heights on Saturday and I'll be surprised if it isn't in the upper 70s. 

It depends on where their forecast area is based off the green box on the map, it says it right on the page, so whatever Don points out is actually told right there.  Belmar includes the Shark River area, whereas south Belmar is several miles away, so that is why it is probably cooler by being mostly surrounded by water vs not.  Anyway, enjoy seaside.  Rides and games should be open for fun.  Years ago in the late 80s/early 90s when I was a kid, the one wheel game where you could win baseball cards, I figured out the wheel clicks and would win like 80% of the time, haha.  

 

  

[nycwinter]

day is perfect when you can wear your hoodie and not even break a sweat..

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The change has been dramatic. During 1961-1990, the second half of December was 4.3 degrees colder than the first half in NYC. During 1991-2020, it was 3.0 degrees colder and since 2000, it is just 1.9 degrees colder during the second half of December.

It’s remarkable how reliable this warm up has been since 2011 from 12-17 to 12-25. Every year has seen at least a high of 55°. This period has had a large concentration of top 3 warmest temperatures.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Max Temp 12-17 to 12-25
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-12-25	61	0
2023-12-25	64	0
2022-12-25	58	0
2021-12-25	62	0
2020-12-25	62	0
2019-12-25	57	0
2018-12-25	61	0
2017-12-25	57	0
2016-12-25	59	0
2015-12-25	71	0
2014-12-25	64	0
2013-12-25	71	0
2012-12-25	57	0
2011-12-25	62	0

 

[Sundog]

It's legit cold in the shade with the breeze. Granted I'm wearing shorts and a t-shirt 

[Sundog]

Snow on Mt. Olympus and a couple other ski resorts in Greece. 

Maybe we can get a cold pool to swing through like the they just got in eastern Europe. 

I don't want to see temps over 70 until next May. But we all know what to expect over the next week

[MJO812]

October looks mild on the models 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Snow on Mt. Olympus and a couple other ski resorts in Greece. 

Maybe we can get a cold pool to swing through like the they just got in eastern Europe. 

I don't want to see temps over 70 until next May. But we all know what to expect over the next week

The Balkans will have an unusuallly early and strong shot of cold and snow.

[uofmiami]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Balkans will have an unusuallly early and strong shot of cold and snow.

 

[anthonymm]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The heat was very front loaded late June and July.  August and September were fallish, we got an early Fall this year, summer only lasted for about 6 weeks.

"September was fallish". I see you chose to ignore the entire second half of the month. Summer teetered out early and then came back with a vengeance after mid Sept. Hell, the upper midwest is getting its hottest temps of the entire season right now in early October.

[anthonymm]

6 hours ago, Sundog said:

What is up with the persistent torching during Christmas week?

It's like the planet knows to mess with us during the worst possible time. 

Notable exception last year with the white christmas and absurd freezing cold a few days beforehand.

[donsutherland1]

The region experienced its coolest lows so far this season overnight. Low temperatures included:

Binghamton: 39°
Bridgeport: 50°
Caldwell: 47°
Danbury: 39°
Islip: 50°
Montgomery: 36°
New Haven: 47°
New York City-Central Park: 53°
New York City-JFK Airport: 52°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 54°
Newark: 52°
Poughkeepsie: 36°
Sussex: 37°
Westhampton: 50°
White Plains: 48°

Temperatures will quickly moderate tomorrow, rising to above normal levels by the weekend as an air mass that will challenge or break records in parts of the Upper Midwest moves eastward. Already, parts of South Dakota saw highs reach 90° or above.

A warm weekend lies ahead. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. The warm weather will continue early next week. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +15.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.011 today. 

 

[lee59]

64

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The region experienced its coolest lows so far this season overnight. Low temperatures included:

Binghamton: 39°
Bridgeport: 50°
Caldwell: 47°
Danbury: 39°
Islip: 50°
Montgomery: 36°
New Haven: 47°
New York City-Central Park: 53°
New York City-JFK Airport: 52°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 54°
Newark: 52°
Poughkeepsie: 36°
Sussex: 37°
Westhampton: 50°
White Plains: 48°

Temperatures will quickly moderate tomorrow, rising to above normal levels by the weekend as an air mass that will challenge or break records in parts of the Upper Midwest moves eastward. Already, parts of South Dakota saw highs reach 90° or above.

A warm weekend lies ahead. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. The warm weather will continue early next week. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +15.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.011 today. 

 

I would think if tonight stays clear and winds light, temperatures in more rural areas will be even chillier.