Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

Congratulations Hoosier nation. What a monkey removed from their backs. 58 years in the making.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z GFS show 2 chances of snow. The first chance is Friday & then another chance early next week.

[pawatch]

Friday looks like a clipper. It’s a start.

34 degrees this morning. 

[Festus]

As I'm fond of noting, today is the earliest sunset.  It's another month or so for the latest sunrise.  The discrepancy is the difference between true solar time and the chronological time we use.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 29. Taking the kids to see Santa today up in Elizabeth Farms above Brickerville, never been before. Should be a solid winter day. Then a big game between the Packers and Bears. Go Pack! 

[ChescoWx]

While still colder than normal for early December it will still be about the best day this week to start or finish (in my case) putting up your Christmas decorations. Highs today will be well into the 30's but still at least 5 degrees below average. We again turn sharply colder tomorrow with the passage of an arctic front late tonight. Temperatures both tomorrow and Tuesday will remain below freezing. Tomorrow night looks to be our coldest night so far this early winter season with low temperatures not too far from 10 degrees. We moderate to closer to normal on Wednesday with rain shower chances increasing and then by Thursday night into Friday may see chances for some snow in at least parts of the area. We again turn very cold by next weekend.

[ChescoWx]

I have seen a lot of chatter across social media on how it doesn’t snow as much as it used to and if we don’t see significant snow by the end of December it is winter snow potential over! I have framed up some stats on some recent winters that may be why some of these folks may being influenced by some recency bias based on winters here during the past 20 years.

 

Keep in mind it is only December 7th and some spots including East Nantmeal in Chester County have already exceeded 1 inch of snow for the season – to date most spots in our area average near 2 inches of snow to today's date in a typical season. Assuming we see no more snow this month below are some snow stats for years with 1 inch or less of accumulated snow by New Year’s Eve and the final seasonal snow totals. There is for certain a correlation but enough outliers to allow for Team Snow folks to dream!

 

30 years with 1” or less of snow by December 31st

· 5 seasons ended up with above normal snowfall at +35”

· 8 seasons ended up between 60% to 85% of normal snowfall at +20”

· 7 seasons ended up between10” to 15” of snow

· 6 seasons ended with no snow to 10%

· The greatest snow season with little pre 12/31 snow was 1977-78 when 59.8” of snow fell

· The least amount of seasonal snow was 1972-1973 when no snow at all accumulated that season at Coatesville.

To put the above in greater perspective at the NWS and trained spotter locations at Coatesville 1W/2SW and East Nantmeal there have been 47 winters with greater than 35 inches of snow. In 3 decades 1900-1909 / 1910-1919 and just recently in 2010-2019 we experienced 6 winters seasons with snowfall greater than 35”. The longest stretch of no season with over 35” was the 23 straight snow seasons from 1934-35 through 1956-57 that all failed to exceed 35 inches of snow for the winter season. So far here in the 2020’s only 2020-2021 with 52.2” of snow has exceeded the 35” mark. So, if you think it doesn’t snow as much as it used to…just imagine growing up in Chester County in the 1930’s thru 1950’s! It is important to remember our last complete decade from 2010-2019 was our 3rd snowiest decade since the 1890’s with only the 1890’s and 1900-1910 averaging more snow then that last decade we just completed. If you are a believer in cyclical climate change like me I would suspect we are due for some less snowy winters.

[Jns2183]

I have seen a lot of chatter across social media on how it doesn’t snow as much as it used to and if we don’t see significant snow by the end of December it is winter snow potential over! I have framed up some stats on some recent winters that may be why some of these folks may being influenced by some recency bias based on winters here during the past 20 years.   Keep in mind it is only December 7th and some spots including East Nantmeal in Chester County have already exceeded 1 inch of snow for the season – to date most spots in our area average near 2 inches of snow to today's date in a typical season. Assuming we see no more snow this month below are some snow stats for years with 1 inch or less of accumulated snow by New Year’s Eve and the final seasonal snow totals. There is for certain a correlation but enough outliers to allow for Team Snow folks to dream!   30 years with 1” or less of snow by December 31st · 5 seasons ended up with above normal snowfall at +35” · 8 seasons ended up between 60% to 85% of normal snowfall at +20” · 7 seasons ended up between10” to 15” of snow · 6 seasons ended with no snow to 10% · The greatest snow season with little pre 12/31 snow was 1977-78 when 59.8” of snow fell · The least amount of seasonal snow was 1972-1973 when no snow at all accumulated that season at Coatesville. To put the above in greater perspective at the NWS and trained spotter locations at Coatesville 1W/2SW and East Nantmeal there have been 47 winters with greater than 35 inches of snow. In 3 decades 1900-1909 / 1910-1919 and just recently in 2010-2019 we experienced 6 winters seasons with snowfall greater than 35”. The longest stretch of no season with over 35” was the 23 straight snow seasons from 1934-35 through 1956-57 that all failed to exceed 35 inches of snow for the winter season. So far here in the 2020’s only 2020-2021 with 52.2” of snow has exceeded the 35” mark. So, if you think it doesn’t snow as much as it used to…just imagine growing up in Chester County in the 1930’s thru 1950’s! It is important to remember our last complete decade from 2010-2019 was our 3rd snowiest decade since the 1890’s with only the 1890’s and 1900-1910 averaging more snow then that last decade we just completed. If you are a believer in cyclical climate change like me I would suspect we are due for some less snowy winters.

Any chance you have the data in excel?

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[Jns2183]

Apparently 8-4 Iowa state is opting out of Bowl game, being fine $500,000 by Big 12. Apparently players voted No as majority of them are entering transfer portal.

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[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

Any chance you have the data in excel?

Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk
 

Yes - let me know which stations/years you want and your email address and I will send it along.

[anotherman]

4 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Apparently 8-4 Iowa state is opting out of Bowl game, being fine $500,000 by Big 12. Apparently players voted No as majority of them are entering transfer portal.

Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk
 

Many of them will be coming to Pennsylvania, most likely.

[Blizzard of 93]

11 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 29. Taking the kids to see Santa today up in Elizabeth Farms above Brickerville, never been before. Should be a solid winter day. Then a big game between the Packers and Bears. Go Pack! 

I hope that you had a great day at Elizabeth Farms!

We took our 2 daughters there for around the last 8 years. They have a nice set up there to see Santa & get a good photo that often became our Christmas card. We would then take a ride on their horse drawn wagons that take you out to the tree cutting area. We just enjoyed the ride, even though we’ve always had an artificial tree, lol. Then we’d get some cocoa in their gift shop while we warmed up. Our kids always picked out a new ornament for our tree each year.

Enjoy it my friend, because time flies! My daughters are now 12 & 14 and this is the first year that we did not go to Elizabeth Farms because they both now have out grown going to see Santa!

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I hope that you had a great day at Elizabeth Farms!

We took our 2 daughters there for around the last 8 years. They have a nice set up there to see Santa & get a good photo that often became our Christmas card. We would then take a ride on their horse drawn wagons that take you out to the tree cutting area. We just enjoyed the ride, even though we’ve always had an artificial tree, lol. Then we’d get some cocoa in their gift shop while we warmed up. Our kids always picked out a new ornament for our tree each year.

Enjoy it my friend, because time flies! My daughters are now 12 & 14 and this is the first year that we did not go to Elizabeth Farms because they both now have out grown going to see Santa!

 

 

You enjoy it as well - our kids ages range from 23 up to 31. 

[Blizzard of 93]

0z Euro shows a snow chance on Friday night.

[pawatch]

21 degrees and windy. Sounds like a coal stove and coffee morning.

[pasnownut]

11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I hope that you had a great day at Elizabeth Farms!

We took our 2 daughters there for around the last 8 years. They have a nice set up there to see Santa & get a good photo that often became our Christmas card. We would then take a ride on their horse drawn wagons that take you out to the tree cutting area. We just enjoyed the ride, even though we’ve always had an artificial tree, lol. Then we’d get some cocoa in their gift shop while we warmed up. Our kids always picked out a new ornament for our tree each year.

Enjoy it my friend, because time flies! My daughters are now 12 & 14 and this is the first year that we did not go to Elizabeth Farms because they both now have out grown going to see Santa!

 

 

as we used to do Elizabeth farms for trees, it got a bit out of hand. 

Another suggestion for those of you that enjoy the whole tree hunting experience.  Texter Mtn Pines. they do the wagon rides and you can pull a tree sled on wheels, or just drag it...whatever suits your style.  Just did it saturday w/ wife, son, DIL, my grandson and grandpup.  Very fun experience and tons of beautiful trees.

  

[ChescoWx]

Following the arctic front passage temps have continued to slowly drop since sunrise across the area. Temperatures do not look to rise much today and remain in the upper 20's. Tonight will be the coldest night so far this season with lows not far from 10 degrees above zero. Some local station record lows will be broken including East Nantmeal record low was 17.7 back in 2010. We warm to near normal on Wednesday (this may be the last normal high temperature through Christmas) We should also see some snow arrive that will change pretty quickly to rain. We fall back below normal for the rest of the work week with additional snow chances arriving on Friday night into Saturday morning.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 27. What a dry airmass out there. 

[pawatch]

Virginia and New York are getting the snow. 
we’re a complete miss. 

[AccuChris]

12z Canadian and GFS bring back the Saturday night arctic wave snow potential


.

[ChescoWx]

At East Nantmeal today will be our 2nd below freezing day of the season and this morning was our 16th sub-freezing low. Below are the average number of each type of day at all of the Chester County Area Climate Locations. You may notice lower elevation spots in general experience more freezing lows while the relatively higher spots see more afternoon highs with below freezing temperatures.