Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Voyager]

5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Seems NWS shaved 3 in off the total this morning. Tuesday  Snow before 10am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

They did for me too. They DO have me a little higher than you, though at 3-7 inches. Seems surface temps are going to be pretty consistent around the region, as they have me at 36 as well.

I'm not liking that Friday morning low though. They shaved a degree off and now have me at 8.

[mahantango#1]

36 minutes ago, Voyager said:

They did for me too. They DO have me a little higher than you, though at 3-7 inches. Seems surface temps are going to be pretty consistent around the region, as they have me at 36 as well.

I'm not liking that Friday morning low though. They shaved a degree off and now have me at 8.

Hopefully you'll cash in on that low temp...and you'll beat my low temp.

[Blizzard of 93]

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
157 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON...

.A quick-hitting system will bring accumulating snow to all of
Central PA late Monday night into early Tuesday afternoon. Hazardous
travel is expected for the morning commute on Tuesday, with a
plowable snow expected areawide. Snow may mix with sleet or freezing
rain near the Mason-Dixon line, where a glaze of ice is possible.
Snowfall totals over 6 inches are possible at higher elevations east
of US-15 and north of the I-81/I-78 corridor.

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-045-049-050-056-057-059-063-012100-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0023.251202T0800Z-251202T1800Z/
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Perry-Dauphin-
Lebanon-Cumberland-
Including the cities of Renovo, Altoona, Philipsburg, Lebanon,
Lewistown, Newport, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, State College,
Harrisburg, Mount Union, Mifflintown, Carlisle, Selinsgrove,
Hershey, and Huntingdon
157 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4
  inches.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
  conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday
  morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour are
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

[Blizzard of 93]

NAMs finally at 6z jumped on board for most of us & the GFS held serve too.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
157 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON...

.A quick-hitting system will bring accumulating snow to all of
Central PA late Monday night into early Tuesday afternoon. Hazardous
travel is expected for the morning commute on Tuesday, with a
plowable snow expected areawide. Snow may mix with sleet or freezing
rain near the Mason-Dixon line, where a glaze of ice is possible.
Snowfall totals over 6 inches are possible at higher elevations east
of US-15 and north of the I-81/I-78 corridor.

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-045-049-050-056-057-059-063-012100-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0023.251202T0800Z-251202T1800Z/
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Perry-Dauphin-
Lebanon-Cumberland-
Including the cities of Renovo, Altoona, Philipsburg, Lebanon,
Lewistown, Newport, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, State College,
Harrisburg, Mount Union, Mifflintown, Carlisle, Selinsgrove,
Hershey, and Huntingdon
157 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4
  inches.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
  conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday
  morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour are
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

I like this CTP call for most of the region, but I think a few lucky spots could get closer to 5 depending on where the heaviest bands set up.

[Voyager]

27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I like this CTP call for most of the region, but I think a few lucky spots could get closer to 5 depending on where the heaviest bands set up.

The old saying of "you've got to smell the rain to get the best snow" may apply here. Whomever is close to the R/S line might be the ones to cash in, especially in the higher elevations.

[Voyager]

38 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Hopefully you'll cash in on that low temp...and you'll beat my low temp.

I'm going back to hauling water (a retirement opened up a day shift position) so I'd rather not win the low temp contest...lol

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Voyager said:

The old saying of "you've got to smell the rain to get the best snow" may apply here. Whomever is close to the R/S line might be the ones to cash in, especially in the higher elevations.

MU was discussing this over the weekend and it seemed like he favored your area or just NE of you. He didn't seem thrilled for anyone SE of I-81. 

[mahantango#1]

13 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I'm going back to hauling water (a retirement opened up a day shift position) so I'd rather not win the low temp contest...lol

Sunbury run? As far as that low temp, frozen valve on the back of the tanker...what could go wrong?

[Itstrainingtime]

I don't think I've ever seen a snowfall forecast of 0.5" - 4". 

 

[Superstorm]

I don't think I've ever seen a snowfall forecast of 0.5" - 4". 
 

Leaves all options on the table


.

[mahantango#1]

[Voyager]

17 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Sunbury run? As far as that low temp, frozen valve on the back of the tanker...what could go wrong?

Occasionally maybe, but mostly Hazleton, Allentown, and Lansdale. We carry hammers and torches for the valves. It's a pain and slows things down a bit as far as normal operations go, but it works. 

[ChescoWx]

November finished as our 3rd below average temperature month over the last 4 months. December looks to also be getting off to a well below normal temperature start. Sunny today but with temperatures almost 10 degrees below normal for highs. Clouds roll in tonight with some snow arriving toward dawn. The Winter Weather Advisory starts at 4am for Western Chester County. Any snow to start should quickly change to sleet and then rain with little if any accumulation. That said with the timing near rush area it may be a bit slippery for the morning commute. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be in the mid 30's well below average but fall even further below average by Friday as the coldest air of the season arrives. Temperatures on Friday will stay in the 20's. Another wintry event is possible by Friday night into Saturday.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

I'm going back to hauling water (a retirement opened up a day shift position) so I'd rather not win the low temp contest...lol

Oh good for you! 

[Voyager]

25 minutes ago, canderson said:

Oh good for you! 

You have no idea how happy I am. I was totally miserable the past four months at that other company since I left.

[pawatch]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I don't think I've ever seen a snowfall forecast of 0.5" - 4". 

 

They are kind of good at that kind of prediction. Just like the 2-6” predictions 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Morning all, had a great weekend in New Jersey.  Met some players' families and tailgated hard.  Mum's the word on the coaching search, which is actually quite impressive this day and age.  Good times.  Low of 32 here and the wife tells me we had our first snow of the season yesterday morning, as some of you have confirmed.  I had .03" total qpf from that event so I'm going with .1" of snow/sleet, even if that's a tad generous.  On the board!  As for tomorrow, looks like things are teetering for those of us down here in Lancaster.  I still think we'll squeeze out 2" on the front-end and I'll gladly take it.  I've got to get back in the swing of things and start checking some stuff to see how December is shaping up.  Feeling weirdly optimistic this winter ha.  Onward.

[Superstorm]

Morning all, had a great weekend in New Jersey.  Met some players' families and tailgated hard.  Mum's the word on the coaching search, which is actually quite impressive this day and age.  Good times.  Low of 32 here and the wife tells me we had our first snow of the season yesterday morning, as some of you have confirmed.  I had .03" total qpf from that event so I'm going with .1" of snow/sleet, even if that's a tad generous.  On the board!  As for tomorrow, looks like things are teetering for those of us down here in Lancaster.  I still think we'll squeeze out 2" on the front-end and I'll gladly take it.  I've got to get back in the swing of things and start checking some stuff to see how December is shaping up.  Feely weirdly optimistic this winter ha.  Onward.

Agree, 1 to 2 inches before sleet and rain.


.

[Itstrainingtime]

24 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Morning all, had a great weekend in New Jersey.  Met some players' families and tailgated hard.  Mum's the word on the coaching search, which is actually quite impressive this day and age.  Good times.  Low of 32 here and the wife tells me we had our first snow of the season yesterday morning, as some of you have confirmed.  I had .03" total qpf from that event so I'm going with .1" of snow/sleet, even if that's a tad generous.  On the board!  As for tomorrow, looks like things are teetering for those of us down here in Lancaster.  I still think we'll squeeze out 2" on the front-end and I'll gladly take it.  I've got to get back in the swing of things and start checking some stuff to see how December is shaping up.  Feely weirdly optimistic this winter ha.  Onward.

 

17 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Agree, 1 to 2 inches before sleet and rain.


.

Same thoughts I have. I'm not confident I'll reach 2" but .5"-2" seems reasonable. The last minute north trend on models has begun, at least on some modeling. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

25 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Agree, 1 to 2 inches before sleet and rain.


.

 

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Same thoughts I have. I'm not confident I'll reach 2" but .5"-2" seems reasonable. The last minute north trend on models has begun, at least on some modeling. 

Hey, do either of you know, for that mini event yesterday morning, did it stay as all snow/sleet or did it end as a period of plain rain?  Trying to keep the books accurate haha.  Thanks. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

Hey, do either of you know, for that mini event yesterday morning, did it stay as all snow/sleet or did it end as a period of plain rain?  Trying to keep the books accurate haha.  Thanks. 

I had a brief period of snow, then a lull, then a period of moderate sleet, a lull followed by mist/drizzle. The "rain" amounted to 0.01". 

[Superstorm]

I had about .04 inches of precip. About 3/4
fell as snow/graupel. The rest drizzle/mist.

No sleet from what could tell.


.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

44 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I had a brief period of snow, then a lull, then a period of moderate sleet, a lull followed by mist/drizzle. The "rain" amounted to 0.01". 

Latest GFS paints you with a 6" jackpot, for whatever it's worth ha. 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Latest GFS paints you with a 6" jackpot, for whatever it's worth ha. 

Meanwhile - 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Meanwhile - 

Haha yep, on the whole, the hi-res guidance isn't overly optimistic with our chances down this way.  Again, 2" and we'll call it a win.  Just fun to be talking snow on December 1st.

[Jns2183]

Haha yep, on the whole, the hi-res guidance isn't overly optimistic with our chances down this way.  Again, 2" and we'll call it a win.  Just fun to be talking snow on December 1st.

There is going to be about a 15 mile separation of people with 1"-2" and someone with 6" it appears

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[Storm Clouds]

York and Lancaster counties are ALWAYS the southern edge…ALWAYS!  Like what even is that? GFS has 6 inches here and the NAM has barely an inch lol