Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[anotherman]

I think someone else should post MU'S thoughts for each winter event this season. That way I'm not always the bad guy.
Suffice to say, he's not onboard for Tuesday for the LSV. He's expecting a significant move north with the storm track leading into the event, citing climo, the axis of the ridge out west plus an unfavorable NAO.

HAHAHAHAHA

[Itstrainingtime]

39 minutes ago, anotherman said:

HAHAHAHAHA

Well I was being somewhat serious. I think it's important to have his contributions but I always feel like the wet blanket. 

I guess if people are interested they can go read on their own.

[Blizzard of 93]

If I was in Lanco, I’d be concerned about Tuesday, but I think most of us are in good shape for at least our first measurable to maybe plowable event this season.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think someone else should post MU'S thoughts for each winter event this season. That way I'm not always the bad guy.

Suffice to say, he's not onboard for Tuesday for the LSV. He's expecting a significant move north with the storm track leading into the event, citing climo, the axis of the ridge out west plus an unfavorable NAO.

Game over then. He’s never incorrect. 

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, WmsptWx said:

This would make too much sense. Ridge and Valley screwzone. 

And give the I-95ers something to gloat about, which I absolutely hate.

[anotherman]

Game over then. He’s never incorrect. 

Time for him to be wrong.

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Time for him to be wrong.

He is typically forecasting for Lanco, which is very much on the fence for Tuesday.

I think 90% of CTP is in good shape for our first measurable to plowable event of the season on Tuesday.

[Jns2183]

Game over then. He’s never incorrect. 

Haha, he did have a big miss last year

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[mitchnick]

Climo is always a viable option forecast at 4-5 days. It may be right, but it may be wrong. It's too early on this one. I will say that I'd love to see this a hit along the lines of the Euro 12z because I'm a firm believer that the first threat event gives a strong hint at the winter's seasonal pattern.

[WmsptWx]

If Texas is left out of the playoff, the SEC is going to abandon the NCAA. 

You can't have three wins vs top 10 teams, two out of three losses to the #1 and #4 teams in the country and be left out. That's a top two or three resume. 

[Jns2183]

If Texas is left out of the playoff, the SEC is going to abandon the NCAA. 
You can't have three wins vs top 10 teams, two out of three losses to the #1 and #4 teams in the country and be left out. That's a top two or three resume. 

You can't lose to a horrible Florida team, need a meltdown of epic proportions from MSU to win in OT, and have Kentucky take you to OT. There only hope, slight at that is for Auburn to win tonight.

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[pawatch]

31 degrees this morning. Wind has died at least.

CPT not spilling much about Tuesday yet. 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, pawatch said:

31 degrees this morning. Wind has died at least.

CPT not spilling much about Tuesday yet. 

CTP’s forecast discussion is very detailed this morning for the Tuesday potential.

[Blizzard of 93]

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather will continue into the first week of December
as cold air in the middle of the country sets up a strong
baroclinic zone over the eastern US. High pressure in the Plains
should keep cold air in place on the northern side of the
precipitation shield from a wave of low pressure progged to move
out of the Gulf. This system should move northeast around the
base of the aforementioned high pressure system, bringing
increasing moisture to the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday.

The system at this time looks to be somewhat progressive with
the lack of a strong area of high pressure to slow the advance
of the system. Despite the expected fast forward movement, a
deepening coastal low could still provide enough forcing
juxtaposed with favorable upper jet dynamics to produce
significant snowfall across the region. Snow looks to arrive
later Monday night and lift across the region during the day on
Monday. The eventual track and intensity of the low will have
big implications on observed snowfall totals and the northward
extent of any mix/rain scenarios.

The latest WPC probabilities of 0.25" or greater liquid
equivalent snow/sleet paint medium probabilities (40-70%)
across most of the region, with slightly lower amounts expected
in northwest PA. The latest Winter Storm Outlook highlights a
30-50% chance of Warning criteria snowfall (5"+) in northeast
PA. GEFS and ECENS probabilities of 6"+ continue to outline
probabilities <30% with a higher likelihood in northeast PA up
through coastal New England. If confidence increases in higher
amounts, Watches may be needed in the next 24-48 hours. At this
time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet
for most of the region. Continue to monitor the forecast in the
days ahead, especially if you have plans to travel.

[Blizzard of 93]

I like this part of CTP’s discussion!

At this
time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet
for most of the region.

[mahantango#1]

21 this morning, this is the coldest so far this season here.

[Voyager]

Got the radiational cooling going on here. I'm at 25.2, but Hazleton stations are at 28.

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

You can't lose to a horrible Florida team, need a meltdown of epic proportions from MSU to win in OT, and have Kentucky take you to OT. There only hope, slight at that is for Auburn to win tonight.

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Everyone (minus Indiana wtf man is going on there) has close calls.  If you keep out Texas you’re feeling programs to schedule the School of the Blind and you’ll bet get big OOC again. 

[WmsptWx]

9 minutes ago, canderson said:

Everyone (minus Indiana wtf man is going on there) has close calls.  If you keep out Texas you’re feeling programs to schedule the School of the Blind and you’ll bet get big OOC again. 

Notre Dame loses to A&M and Miami. They have zero quality wins. 

Ohio State has just one quality win. Texas. 

Vanderbilt has zero quality wins. 

Oklahoma has one quality win. 

Indiana has one quality win. 

The Big XII has no quality. 

The ACC has one quality win. Louisville beating Miami. Miami beating Notre Dame isn't quality at this point. 

 

If Notre Dame gets in and Texas doesn't, I wouldn't blame the SEC and Big Ten for leaving the NCAA.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I like this part of CTP’s discussion!

At this
time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet
for most of the region.

I'm having some serious doubts for mby. I need a cooling trend to start if not today, definitely by tomorrow. 

[Jns2183]

I'm having some serious doubts for mby. I need a cooling trend to start if not today, definitely by tomorrow. 

Where is your backyard again?

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[Jns2183]

Notre Dame loses to A&M and Miami. They have zero quality wins. 
Ohio State has just one quality win. Texas. 
Vanderbilt has zero quality wins. 
Oklahoma has one quality win. 
Indiana has one quality win. 
The Big XII has no quality. 
The ACC has one quality win. Louisville beating Miami. Miami beating Notre Dame isn't quality at this point. 
 
If Notre Dame gets in and Texas doesn't, I wouldn't blame the SEC and Big Ten for leaving the NCAA.

This is just going to lead to playoff expansion. That is for sure. Probably like top 5 teams in Big Ten and SEC standings and some combination of the rest

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[mahantango#1]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm having some serious doubts for mby. I need a cooling trend to start if not today, definitely by tomorrow. 

[ChescoWx]

This morning was the coldest morning (26.1) here in East Nantmeal since last April 9th at 25.8. Warwick was the area cold spot at 22.1 degrees this morning. Sunny and chilly today with highs struggling to escape the 30's in the hills with low 40's in the valleys. Clouds increase tonight with some light snow or a mix of rain/snow arriving tomorrow morning before a quick change to plain rain. Monday looks sunny before snow arrives toward Tuesday morning. We should see a pretty steady transition from snow to rain from SE to NW across the area. The best chances for a small accumulation will be across far NW Chester County and into Berks and Lehigh counties. We keep temperatures well below normal all week with the coldest weather of the season arriving to close out the week. Temperatures on Friday may not even reach freezing for high temperatures.

[Itstrainingtime]

13 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Haha, he did have a big miss last year

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He sure did. He's also been off on some of our recent rain events as well. 

His "strength" as a seasoned met is understanding that while pretty snow maps are fun to look at...in reality, they are flawed and often highly inaccurate.

[Itstrainingtime]

14 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

He is typically forecasting for Lanco, which is very much on the fence for Tuesday.

I think 90% of CTP is in good shape for our first measurable to plowable event of the season on Tuesday.

I agree completely with all of your comments/assessments you've posted. The only thing I would sorta challenge is that his thoughts for Tuesday were for the entire LSV and not Lanco-specific.

Let's hope this doesn't trend north as he fears it will.

[Itstrainingtime]

CTP's forecast for me on Tuesday is rain mixed with snow and a high of 38. Not inspiring but not surprising.

[GrandmasterB]

12Z GFS colder on the front end and overall better for us southerners. True central smoked. Noticeable move to the Euro. 

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

12Z GFS colder on the front end and overall better for us southerners. True central smoked. Noticeable move to the Euro. 

Yes indeed! This would make most of us get off to a great start to Winter if it comes close to verifying. I like the timing as well with the onset & thump in the early am.