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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs


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Today we should see temperature once again reach above normal levels in the mid to upper 70's. There will however be a noticeable lowering of humidity and dew points by this afternoon. We cool to below normal levels as we start October tomorrow with high temperatures across most of the county remaining in the mid to upper 60's for the rest of the work week. By the weekend we should see a warming trend with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70's. There is almost no chance of rain for at least the next week.

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Who is ready for October starting tomorrow. We have seen summer like readings of 100 degrees and temperatures in the teens. We even occasionally see snow. Who remembers 2011 when between 5" to 9" of snow fell across the county? October Chester County PA records are below.

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One of the first things that popped up on the search so take it with a grain of salt.

Harrisburg

Rank Temperature Date
1 97 °F October 7, 1941
1 97 °F October 5, 1941
3 93 °F October 2, 2019
3 93 °F October 6, 1941
5 90 °F October 5, 1959
5 90 °F October 1, 1927
7 89 °F October 9, 2007
7 89 °F October 6, 1997
7 89 °F October 5, 1951
7 89 °F October 5, 1922
11 88 °F October 8, 2007
11 88 °F October 6, 1959
11 88 °F October 12, 1954
11 88 °F October 10, 1949
11 88 °F October 4, 1941
11 88 °F October 3, 1919
11 88 °F October 6, 1900
18 87 °F October 1, 2019
18 87 °F October 7, 1963
18 87 °F October 4, 1959
18 87 °F October 2, 1927
18 87 °F October 6, 1922
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Happy Red October for those who celebrate - Go Phillies!! I will have the final September climate wrap up for Chester County later today, but it looks like we finished with slightly above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall. We have had 5 months with above normal temperatures and 4 months with below normal temperatures so far here in 2025. We are much cooler this morning with the chilliest spot being the 49.5 degrees at Chester Springs. We will see dry weather with below normal temperatures through Friday and then a nice warmup through next Tuesday before we cool down again during the middle to end of next week. As has been the case no rain in sight.

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2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Happy hump day.  Just parsing over extended, and it looks like a week from today will be a notable step into fall weather.  Not looking too deep, but hoping the pattern change being shown holds, as cooler and wetter times are being shown.  Wood stove likely gets first burn next week.

 

 

Interesting, I just saw somebody post this on social media. 

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Interesting, I just saw somebody post this on social media. 
FB_IMG_1759332770181.thumb.jpg.960a2deb56eab7a5c167419c979027e5.jpg
In 1963 we no fall. Average high temperatures in October for the month were a ridiculous 71.7, a plus 6 departure from Normal. It hit 87 on October 7th. In total 5 days were 80 or above and an insane 15 were 75. The mean high temperature was 4th highest all time. Our lows however were a negative 3.5 from normal at 42.5. The reason? Not only did we have the driest October on record, but it was also the single driest month ever, and still is, at 0.04". My dear weather nerds, what followed was pure beauty of snow starting December 10. Following is December to March snow

15.8
19.4
30.2
9.0

Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

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34 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

In 1963 we no fall. Average high temperatures in October for the month were a ridiculous 71.7, a plus 6 departure from Normal. It hit 87 on October 7th. In total 5 days were 80 or above and an insane 15 were 75. The mean high temperature was 4th highest all time. Our lows however were a negative 3.5 from normal at 42.5. The reason? Not only did we have the driest October on record, but it was also the single driest month ever, and still is, at 0.04". My dear weather nerds, what followed was pure beauty of snow starting December 10. Following is December to March snow

15.8
19.4
30.2
9.0

Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk
 

my musings were based on 0z/6z gfs and ens guidance rolled forward beyond 10/8.

gfs_T2m_us_39.png

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If it's not going to rain, then I would prefer we get into December dry and, with some luck, cool . Snce we made it to this point without much rain, I personally  don't want to see to much wet and/or cold around here the next 10 to 12 weeks. If we can get a cold winter, let's not forget we can have well below normal precipitation and still be well above normal in snow accumulation.

 

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Just did a brief search on the solar phase in 1963 and I wasn't surprised to find this.

During the winter of 1963, the Sun was in the declining phase of Solar Cycle 19, heading toward a period of minimal activity. Solar Cycle 19 is notable for having the highest sunspot number ever recorded at its peak, but by 1963, sunspot and flare activity had significantly decreased. 

We missed out last solar minimum as we sometimes do, but the long cold winters, we all love and miss could and will return any year.But as i've stated year after year, i'm a huge believer that the minimum time frame is our best bet.

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Don't be thinking i'm not always rooting for the anomaly or just to be dead wrong because I sure as hell hope I am. I will remain positive and will be rooting for the storms but deep down inside my true feelings will be haunting me. That said, here's a little Ai overview  on this winter's solar cycle. I'm not complaining. 

The 2025–2026 winter is occurring during the Solar Cycle 25 peak, which is expected to last between November 2024 and March 2026. This period of high solar activity is the most intense of the cycle, leading to more frequent and powerful solar storms and increased aurora activity. While the solar maximum influences Earth's atmosphere by heating it and potentially disrupting satellites and power grids, the primary drivers of the winter weather are changing atmospheric conditions, particularly the fading of La Niña and transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions. 

 

 

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um, Blizz has been mostly silent for a few months is revived with these cooler temps. This can only mean one thing. He sees opportunities for frozen precipitation in the near future, maybe another late October snowfall?
The kraken awakes!!!

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Some of our colder valley locations saw lows this morning in the chilly 30's. The lowest was at Warwick Township at 37.4 degrees. The next couple of days will be seasonably cool with highs not too far from normal in the upper 60's but lows a bit below normal including some of those same spots tonight sinking into the 30's. We start a moderating trend starting Saturday that should last through the middle of next week before we turn much cooler again toward the end of next week. Our best rain chances look to be next Tuesday or Wednesday.

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