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Tropical Storm Gabrielle

WxWatcher007

By WxWatcher007,
in Tropical Headquarters

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STORMANLI

STORMANLI

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I have a thing or two to say! First thing- this might take the cake as the most questionably named TS ever! Second thing- I still don’t see a defined center and they even mentioned it is marginally organized at best. I guess the assumption is it keeps organizing through the day but man that’s a questionable call with multiple circulations within a broad wave 

Totally agree. Hostile environment. So if the 5pm Scatterometer analysis does not find Tropical-Storm force winds, will it attain or tie a record for the shortest-lived named storm?

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, GaWx said:


 I bet Bastardi will have a thing or two to say about this upgrade lol.

Followup:

 JB was surprisingly quiet. All he said was this: “Now, the red-hatched area has been designated Tropical Depression 7, posing a threat to Bermuda but not the U.S.”

 But then he immediately mentioned a possible unexpected “side-show Bob” to form off the SE US.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

12Z summary of main ops

-Icon H 250 miles E/SE of Bermuda 9/22-3
-GFS another relatively weak run with a TS over Bermuda but takes 10 days (9/27)!
-CMC H 150 miles E/SE of Bermuda 9/22
-Euro H 200 miles E/SE of Bermuda 9/22
-JMA out to only 72 as a TD recurving
-UKMET: TS ~150 miles E of Bermuda 9/22:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 20.0N 50.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2025 24 20.0N 50.9W 1009 35
0000UTC 19.09.2025 36 20.8N 53.2W 1009 31
1200UTC 19.09.2025 48 21.3N 55.3W 1010 29
0000UTC 20.09.2025 60 22.4N 58.1W 1011 30
1200UTC 20.09.2025 72 23.6N 59.5W 1011 27
0000UTC 21.09.2025 84 25.1N 61.1W 1011 29
1200UTC 21.09.2025 96 26.9N 61.2W 1011 33
0000UTC 22.09.2025 108 29.3N 62.0W 1008 43
1200UTC 22.09.2025 120 31.2N 62.2W 1007 47
0000UTC 23.09.2025 132 33.5N 61.9W 1005 41
1200UTC 23.09.2025 144 36.5N 58.5W 1003 42
0000UTC 24.09.2025 156 39.5N 52.7W 994 43
1200UTC 24.09.2025 168 42.3N 44.3W 982 52

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wow what a beautiful naked swirl 

Pathetic looking and not going anywhere fast as far as intensification that's for sure.  Never should have been upgraded to TS status yesterday.  Leaving it as a depression might have even been generous. What a season thus far.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 He was slow this time, but Bastardi finally this morning had his expected say about Gabrielle’s current anemic look vs the NC/VA no name system:

What a Joke. Stratocu Swirl Gabrielle

Then Joe compares satellite images of the two:

Gabrielle: now a naked swirl but still being called a TS

IMG_4616.png.f6d8a8a051140ade6e5c270f53b2318f.png


Offshore NC/VA nontropical low: was never tropical and thus was never a TS but unlike Gabrielle now it did have some nearby convection/tropical characteristics at this point:

IMG_4617.png.721cdcb424a8a15923bd3782d2b90b55.png
 

  What JB especially doesn’t like is the inconsistency more than whether or not the offshore NC/VA nontropical low should have been named (he was wishy-washy on that). He thinks Gabrielle should be downgraded though I have to admit it still has a very tight tropical swirl unlike no-name.

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Seminole

Seminole

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 He was slow this time, but Bastardi finally this morning had his expected say about Gabrielle’s current anemic look vs the NC/VA no name system:

What a Joke. Stratocu Swirl Gabrielle

Then Joe compares satellite images of the two:

Gabrielle: now a naked swirl but still being called a TS

IMG_4616.png.f6d8a8a051140ade6e5c270f53b2318f.png


Offshore NC/VA nontropical low: was never tropical and thus was never a TS but unlike Gabrielle now it did have some nearby convection/tropical characteristics at this point:

IMG_4617.png.721cdcb424a8a15923bd3782d2b90b55.png
 

  What JB especially doesn’t like is the inconsistency more than whether or not the offshore NC/VA nontropical low should have been named (he was wishy-washy on that). He thinks Gabrielle should be downgraded though I have to admit it still has a very tight tropical swirl unlike no-name.

Maybe the happy middle is naming non tropical storms and use a naming convention that is different than what is used for tropical storms. This would raise public awareness to a certain degree. Off the top of my head, maybe use the NATO Phonetic alphabet for non tropical storms. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_phonetic_alphabet

 

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NorthHillsWx

NorthHillsWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 He was slow this time, but Bastardi finally this morning had his expected say about Gabrielle’s current anemic look vs the NC/VA no name system:

What a Joke. Stratocu Swirl Gabrielle

Then Joe compares satellite images of the two:

Gabrielle: now a naked swirl but still being called a TS

IMG_4616.png.f6d8a8a051140ade6e5c270f53b2318f.png


Offshore NC/VA nontropical low: was never tropical and thus was never a TS but unlike Gabrielle now it did have some nearby convection/tropical characteristics at this point:

IMG_4617.png.721cdcb424a8a15923bd3782d2b90b55.png
 

  What JB especially doesn’t like is the inconsistency more than whether or not the offshore NC/VA nontropical low should have been named (he was wishy-washy on that). He thinks Gabrielle should be downgraded though I have to admit it still has a very tight tropical swirl unlike no-name.

IMO, they named this storm before it met tropical cyclone criteria, namely it didn’t have a closed circulation. It has certainly acquired that now, but with 0 convection, this should be a depression at best. I will go on a limb and say, there is NO way this is producing TS force winds right now

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
560 
WTNT42 KNHC 182053
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025

Gabrielle continues to fight off strong westerly vertical 
wind shear and significant dry air entrainment this afternoon. 
Some thunderstorms have blossomed on the storm's eastern flank, 
which is an improvement from its naked low-level swirl earlier this 
morning. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent 
scatterometer data of at least 40 kt and little in the way of 
change to its structure from earlier this morning.
 
Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for another 
day or so, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its current 
intensity or weaken slightly during that time. Recent 12Z guidance 
indicates vertical wind shear relaxes and an increasingly moist 
vertical profile should foster a much improved environment for 
strengthening this weekend, with the GFS model trending toward the 
more conducive ECMWF solution. As a result, intensity guidance is 
notable higher on this cycle.  The NHC intensity forecast is raised 
from the previous one, but not as high as the model consensus 
mostly due to continuity. There are a growing number of hurricane 
models that are indicating Gabrielle could approach major hurricane 
strength after the weekend.
 
Gabrielle is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt and should maintain 
this track with a bend toward the northwest over the next few days 
as the storm is steered primarily by a subtropical ridge over the 
central Atlantic.  A turn toward the north and northeast is 
forecast to occur late this weekend and early next week when 
Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge and a frontal 
system approaches from the west.  While the guidance envelope has 
shrunk on this forecast cycle, there are some significant speed 
differences, with the ECMWF/GFS models considerably faster than the 
Google Deep Mind ensemble.  Although no significant changes to the 
forecast were made, confidence remains on the lower side given the 
along-track model spread and an unclear intensity forecast beyond 
48 hours. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle 
over the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 20.8N  52.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 21.5N  54.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 22.6N  56.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 23.9N  58.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 25.3N  59.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 27.1N  61.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 29.0N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 33.0N  61.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 39.0N  52.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted 
 GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.09.2025

        TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE  ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N  53.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072025

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 19.09.2025    0  21.2N  53.0W     1007            31
    1200UTC 19.09.2025   12  22.0N  55.0W     1008            32
    0000UTC 20.09.2025   24  23.6N  57.0W     1009            32
    1200UTC 20.09.2025   36  24.7N  58.8W     1009            32
    0000UTC 21.09.2025   48  26.5N  60.2W     1010            34
    1200UTC 21.09.2025   60  28.2N  60.8W     1009            41
    0000UTC 22.09.2025   72  30.2N  61.7W     1006            46
    1200UTC 22.09.2025   84  33.0N  61.7W     1002            44
    0000UTC 23.09.2025   96  35.8N  59.1W      996            45
    1200UTC 23.09.2025  108  38.1N  54.2W      985            51
    0000UTC 24.09.2025  120  39.9N  47.4W      977            61
    1200UTC 24.09.2025  132  41.4N  39.6W      971            67
    0000UTC 25.09.2025  144  42.7N  32.6W      974            53
    1200UTC 25.09.2025  156  44.9N  26.7W      978            46
    0000UTC 26.09.2025  168  48.3N  21.8W      980            41
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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
  • Author
Posted
2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Gabrielle is still a naked swirl this AM, with all the convection displaced far from the center of circulation. Center is somewhere to the south and west of that blob of convection.

86235889007-6-am-sept-19-2025-tropical-s



g16split-4.jpg

It is, but the convective trend has reversed with shear and dry air decreasing. This is why the models are once again getting bullish on organization and intensification this weekend.

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Wannabehippie

Wannabehippie

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It is, but the convective trend has reversed with shear and dry air decreasing. This is why the models are once again getting bullish on organization and intensification this weekend.

It looks like there is some convection near the center on the latest satellite. But it has not yet completely wrapped around the center.

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
  • Author
Posted
6 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

It looks like there is some convection near the center on the latest satellite. But it has not yet completely wrapped around the center.

Yeah it’s going to take a little time but this might very well take off once it has sufficiently organized. Could be some open ocean eye candy. 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Gabrielle is getting its act together today.  Recon shows the pressure down to 997 mb.  The wind has not caught up, yet.

000
WTNT62 KNHC 201753
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
200 PM AST Sat Sep 20 2025


...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT GABRIELLE IS FARTHER EAST
AND A LITTLE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
data show that the center of Gabrielle is located about 30 miles
farther east than indicated in the previous advisory. The maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h). The next
full advisory will be issued at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 58.7W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm curious to know why we have three recon planes flying all the way out to a tropical storm in the middle of the ocean, which isn't going to affect any land.

This is what someone said:

According to the TCPOD the NOAA planes (all three of them, the gulfstream is out too) are doing a research mission, apparently involving drones they're dropping in. The AF are on a normal fix mission, IDK the exact motivation. I guess in case of any effects to bermuda? Or it could just be practice/nothing else to do.

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