2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Mix city and heavy snow.

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I hope it's right over the other Models so far but, hard to go against the freaking Euro although it does have a known warm bias. 

[Met1985]

A lot of mixing and freezing rain.

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[Met1985]

Back edge coming around. You can see it getting colder again.

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[BretWx]

18Z GFS shifts south. 

[Met1985]

Back to snow Sunday night.

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[Met1985]

Really nice thump on the back end.

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[Met1985]

Snow totals

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[BretWx]

Per the 18Z GFS, we're still looking at a 35-40 hour storm across the board.

[BooneWX]

The gfs depiction fits the profile of a normal miller b. I buy the solution even if I don’t buy the source. 

[BretWx]

As much as I'd love a total snow storm. This is screaming sleet and freezing rain. 

[SnowDawg]

Just to rain on the parade a bit, The AI GFS and GEFS went slightly the other way at H5. Lots of members in both camps though so we track on. 

[Met1985]

16 minutes ago, BretWx said:

As much as I'd love a total snow storm. This is screaming sleet and freezing rain. 

Lots of sleet.

[Met1985]

14 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Just to rain on the parade a bit, The AI GFS and GEFS went slightly the other way at H5. Lots of members in both camps though so we track on. 

Not raining here. It'll be fine.

[WNC_Fort]

It is funny how much a small tweak here or there can be the difference from big snowstorm or apocalyptic ice

[Met1985]

37 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

It is funny how much a small tweak here or there can be the difference from big snowstorm or apocalyptic ice

That's how it works here in the south usually.  It can be nerve racking. 

[franklin NCwx]

Light snow falling 

[Tacoma]

just can't win for losing, we can't get a storm to phase and when they finally do it's a cutter

 

[Buckethead]

32 with light snow in Wolf.

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[Maggie Valley Steve]

How about them appetizers!

Not a cloud in the sky and 43.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

So my buddy Jeremy DeHart posted on Twitter that the sampling of the Baja low will be in the 00Z GFS and ECMWF tonight, but could take a couple of cycles to settle the guidance down. He also stated the the missions tomorrow in the Gulf will offer thermal profiles to better assist guidance going forward.

[Tyler Penland]

0z GFS turns out nearly identical by the end. Start as snow for the northern mountains then a sleet storm and ZR at the end. Eventually switches to cold rain but not before the damage is done by ZR/IP.

[Met1985]

Still we have the euro vs the gfs. This is definitely a model war for the ages.

[Met1985]

The 06z euro came in a bit colder so it holds onto the frozen precipitation longer. Also I think the gfs is handling the backside of this storm better with the wraparound snow its bringing in. 

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The 06z euro came in a bit colder so it holds onto the frozen precipitation longer. Also I think the gfs is handling the backside of this storm better with the wraparound snow its bringing in. 

Overnight and 6z summary: WAGONS SOUTH

[BooneWX]

14 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Still we have the euro vs the gfs. This is definitely a model war for the ages.

Euro seemed to nod to the gfs at 500mb

[BretWx]

Well, obviously we're looking at an ice storm but just how bad. 

Unrelated, but I stopped by the lottery machine at Ingles this morning hoping to get lucky w/ this storm and a ticket and sitting right there in the bottom of it was a $50 unscratched ticket. Seems lucky to me!

[Hvward]

No rest for the weary here. Hopefully everyone has power to track this next wave in the 10 day. All 3 major models show another shot. Of course take it with a grain of salt, but winter certainly doesn’t look over after the ice passes.

[WXNewton]

6z GEFS reinforces the wedge a little more than 00z.

[Moonhowl]

Not what I wanted to see in the NWS GSP forecast discussion this morning:

 

While the system moves into the area, the colder air
appears to get a slight delay in arrival, thanks in part to a
developing shortwave moving over the southeast. This could create a
brief period of isentropic ascent with moisture lagging, ahead of
the colder air. What this does is help to create a warm nose sooner
than originally expected. A warm nose means more ice/sleet than
snow.

[Met1985]

10 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

Not what I wanted to see in the NWS GSP forecast discussion this morning:

 

While the system moves into the area, the colder air
appears to get a slight delay in arrival, thanks in part to a
developing shortwave moving over the southeast. This could create a
brief period of isentropic ascent with moisture lagging, ahead of
the colder air. What this does is help to create a warm nose sooner
than originally expected. A warm nose means more ice/sleet than
snow.

We all new this was coming.