2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[ncjoaquin]

Guess the new RAP has any clue?

[cold air aloft]

Hunter mentioned watching the radar returns develop today in Louisiana. The returns there and in East Texas are starting to look pretty interesting to me.

[BretWx]

If we could get this thing to shift northwest about 50-75 miles we’d be golden here for at least a low impact event. I’d take an inch of snow on the ground at this point! Starved down here LOL!


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[Met1985]

Always a NW trend. 

[Hvward]

Not impressed with the 18z Nam 3km.  Seems to keep firing precipitation through the early morning hours but it is just scattered.  Still think we see a widespread 1"-3" from this but who knows.  This is why the weather is so fun!

[BretWx]

SREF Plumes are at 1.28 MEAN for KAVL ... I'd take half of that? 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Temperature is starting to fall fairly quickly now. Currently 37 which was my morning low this morning after a high of 45. Now if we can just get some moisture.

[BretWx]

39 - 29 here - Radar seemed to take jog NW.


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[Buckethead]

Light snow on Newfound Rd. in Leicester.

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[Rainforrest]

Moderate snow in toxaway. Ground whitening up. 

[Hvward]

Getting a nice little burst of snow at my house currently.

[Hvward]

Decent blob on the radar moving up from North GA. Snow reports showing down there so I bet many seem flakes from this.

[BretWx]

If only that moisture took that NW job we'd be thumping right now. Maybe will see some flakes before it's out. 

[Hvward]

Disappointing how this unfolded for all of us, that's for sure.  Looking at the pattern ahead its easy to feel optimistic.  We have found every way possible to miss in the past 4 years though, so it's hard to get too excited.  Anyways glad I can post my thoughts here without a bunch of crazy.  This is a good group of people!

[BooneWX]

2 hours ago, BretWx said:

If only that moisture took that NW job we'd be thumping right now. Maybe will see some flakes before it's out. 

A painful amount of “close but no cigar” setups in WNC for a while now. We’re snow starved down in the foothills but yall kinda are too. Ik nwf happens frequently but it feels like it’s been a century since anyone west of I-77 has seen a synoptic setup.

[Met1985]

10 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Disappointing how this unfolded for all of us, that's for sure.  Looking at the pattern ahead its easy to feel optimistic.  We have found every way possible to miss in the past 4 years though, so it's hard to get too excited.  Anyways glad I can post my thoughts here without a bunch of crazy.  This is a good group of people!

For sure Ward. Seems like this winter and last winter we have no problem getting the cold but the moisture is either north of us or south of us. I saw where even down into Destin FL saw flakes this morning.  We will get ours. This pattern of misses won't continue. Great job friend. 

[Met1985]

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

A painful amount of “close but no cigar” setups in WNC for a while now. We’re snow starved down in the foothills but yall kinda are too. Ik nwf happens frequently but it feels like it’s been a century since anyone west of I-77 has seen a synoptic setup.

It will come eventually.  Just have to be patient. 

[ncjoaquin]

17 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Disappointing how this unfolded for all of us, that's for sure.  Looking at the pattern ahead its easy to feel optimistic.  We have found every way possible to miss in the past 4 years though, so it's hard to get too excited.  Anyways glad I can post my thoughts here without a bunch of crazy.  This is a good group of people!

We enjoy having you to give your expertise. You are a great addition to the already knowledgeable posters in this subforum. This is a great group! I try not to drag us down too much! I'm not always successful. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Hunter brings great insights with awesome knowledge of our "local" climates! Our group is truly amazing that brings a wealth of knowledge. When I moved here permanently in 2019 (I lived here during my last two years of college at Mars Hill back in the day late 70's), the Mountain group welcomed me and I found my fix for this disease we call weather!

I certainly like our chances particularly next weekend and beyond! I suspect we'll have plenty of opportunities well into mid/late February. 

[Hvward]

Thanks for the kind words. On cue the 12z GFS shows what a real overunning event should look like here in WNC for next weekend.

[wncsnow]

I like seeing a CAD high. We really need that in the foothills

[CheoahBald1]

Thanks for the kind words. On cue the 12z GFS shows what a real overunning event should look like here in WNC for next weekend.

The Canadian shows a dream come true in that time frame , back to back storms. In our wildest dreams.


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[strongwxnc]

The Canadian shows a dream come true in that time frame , back to back storms. In our wildest dreams.


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Sure does. Strung out over a few days also.



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[BooneWX]

Insane blocking signature showing up. Let’s just get the southern jet involved and we’ll cook.

[buckeyefan1]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Insane blocking signature showing up. Let’s just get the southern jet involved and we’ll cook.

Hopefully it gets established in a favorable position and parked for a bit 

[BretWx]

Phew. Those two run gave me a little more pep in my step. LET’S GO!


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[Hvward]

12z Euro making dreams come true out here. Impressive run.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

So the American/Canadian/European models all have the potential event next weekend. The Euro drops 19 inches of digital snow in the Valley.