September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

To be fair, last Fall was warmer than this but the Winter was quite cold, we just didn't get the precipitation timed quite right.

Winter was quite cold?

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Winter was quite cold?

relatively speaking yes especially compared to the last 2

[Sundog]

47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

relatively speaking yes especially compared to the last 2

Two out of three months finished above normal using 1981-2010 normals. 

Under no circumstances would you call that quite cold. 

 

[donsutherland1]

Above normal temperatures will continue through tomorrow, the remainder of September. 

The start of October will start with arrival of the coolest air mass so far this season, but temperatures will likely quickly moderate, rising to above normal levels within a few days.

The guidance and historical experience following a second half September mean temperature of 70° or above suggest that October will be warmer than normal in the New York City area. The two most recent Octobers with a cooler than normal first half like 2025 and a second half with a mean temperature of 70° or above were: 2017 (October mean temperature: 64.1° and October 2019: October mean temperature 59.9°).

Imelda will approach the South Carolina coast but then turn out to sea avoiding U.S. landfall on account of Fujiwhara interaction with the stronger Humberto. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was -16.99 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.298 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.5° (1.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[psv88]

4 hours ago, uofmiami said:

74.9 only so far for both my stations.  You have more sun or temp sensor is at EWR, lol

The nearest PWS to me were all 79-80. Center island was warm today for whatever reason. 

[psv88]

4 hours ago, uofmiami said:

74.9 only so far for both my stations.  You have more sun or temp sensor is at EWR, lol

Islip also hit 79 3-4 hours ago. North shore was cooler. 

[psv88]

[psv88]

Just now, psv88 said:

That’s the neighboring PWS. 

[psv88]

Farmingdale also hit 79 today…I guess ISP and FRG also have sensor issues? Lol

 

@uofmiami

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Two out of three months finished above normal using 1981-2010 normals. 

Under no circumstances would you call that quite cold. 

 

it would now be called cold and dry

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Farmingdale also hit 79 today…I guess ISP and FRG also have sensor issues? Lol

 

@uofmiami

no it definitely hit 80 today, it was 80 here even when it was cloudy.

High of 81

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

The pattern going forward looks very similar to October 1963 which was remarkably warm, dry and sunny for almost the entire month. Another similar feature was a long-lived meandering hurricane off the southeast coast. I recall the month from a location near Toronto where we had absolutely no rain from the 1st to 30th and only avoided a total drought when it rained on the 31st. November 1963 was then very mild and unsettled, December was quite cold and snowy. 

 

You could also say it will be a lot like last October was.

[uofmiami]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The nearest PWS to me were all 79-80. Center island was warm today for whatever reason. 

I looked on the Davis map & saw your station and one in Dix Hills were 80, others around 78-79.  I was just busted your chops.  There was more sun further E & winds out of the N kept N Shore in check, as my stations topped off around 75 (74.9 & 75.1) from this morning due to cloud cover the rest of the day.

[FPizz]

52 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Two out of three months finished above normal using 1981-2010 normals. 

Under no circumstances would you call that quite cold. 

 

Change with the times dude, unless you are still playing with gi joes and transformers.  

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Change with the times dude, unless you are still playing with gi joes and transformers.  

I'm not changing when those averages were being used just 4 years ago. 

This isn't 60 years ago we're talking about. 

So if averages one day become 50 in NYC for January I'm supposed to pretend that an average of 48 is cold? Haha never happening lol

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Winter was quite cold?

In general, it was seasonably cold.  I believe 2 months actually averaged below normal?

[Sundog]

43 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

In general, it was seasonably cold.  I believe 2 months actually averaged below normal?

It was seasonable when taken as a whole   

I'm not going to do celebratory backflips because we achieved normal temps when ranked against the warmest 30 year average we've ever had lol

I'm not impressed 

[Sundog]

Euro AI kills the mega ridge much quicker now and brings cool temps in the long range

[psv88]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

I looked on the Davis map & saw your station and one in Dix Hills were 80, others around 78-79.  I was just busted your chops.  There was more sun further E & winds out of the N kept N Shore in check, as my stations topped off around 75 (74.9 & 75.1) from this morning due to cloud cover the rest of the day.

Yep. Long lsland microclimate is crazy. Moving south I thought I’d always be cooler in summer but it’s not the case at all. Some days yes some days no, but it often evens out. 
 

in winter I’m expecting lots of suckage in south Commack in marginal events. 

[Sundog]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yep. Long lsland microclimate is crazy. Moving south I thought I’d always be cooler in summer but it’s not the case at all. Some days yes some days no, but it often evens out. 
 

in winter I’m expecting lots of suckage in south Commack in marginal events. 

You moved south at a time when the water is now extra toasty so your cooling seabreezes aren't what they used to be. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

I looked on the Davis map & saw your station and one in Dix Hills were 80, others around 78-79.  I was just busted your chops.  There was more sun further E & winds out of the N kept N Shore in check, as my stations topped off around 75 (74.9 & 75.1) from this morning due to cloud cover the rest of the day.

the sun came out here for a bit too but it hit 81 here even when it was cloudy.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

You moved south at a time when the water is now extra toasty so your cooling seabreezes aren't what they used to be. 

lol this summer we were 100+ even on a seabreeze.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs
 

PHL: 81
EWR: 80
TEB: 79
ISP: 79
TTN: 79
New Brnswck: 78
JFK: 78
ACY: 77
NYC: 77
BLM: 75
LGA: 75

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

You moved south at a time when the water is now extra toasty so your cooling seabreezes aren't what they used to be. 

That plus north winds which make the north shore cooler. I have a cool app for the boat called predict wind. Micro level wind forecasts which show how in the summer three general wind zones. North shore, mid island and south shore. Mid island bounces back and forth between north shore and south shore wind directions, when the other 2 can remain steady 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Yep. Long lsland microclimate is crazy. Moving south I thought I’d always be cooler in summer but it’s not the case at all. Some days yes some days no, but it often evens out. 
 

in winter I’m expecting lots of suckage in south Commack in marginal events. 

This time of year after the water warms up the south shore isn't much cooler anymore if at all. Also the last few summers the seabreeze just brought more humidity even if temp went down a few degrees, so no relief. You're also still well away from the barrier islands. 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That plus north winds which make the north shore cooler. I have a cool app for the boat called predict wind. Micro level wind forecasts which show how in the summer three general wind zones. North shore, mid island and south shore. Mid island bounces back and forth between north shore and south shore wind directions, when the other 2 can remain steady 

The gradation is even finer than that.  Many times the sea breeze never makes it north of the barrier islands and the south shore is the hottest place. This is what happened in late June.

 

[winterwarlock]

80 for a high

 

7th day in a row of 80 and above

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No 90s though, so this isn't extreme heat like we had in October 2019 when we hit 95 on the 2nd.  Last fall we had 80s too, but much later in the season in November.

So while warm, this isn't extreme.

 

This was still the warmest last week of September for many across the region. 
 

Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-09-30	71.2	1
2	2011-09-30	70.3	0
3	2017-09-30	69.4	0
4	2010-09-30	69.3	0
5	2015-09-30	67.0	0
6	2007-09-30	66.8	0
7	2020-09-30	66.5	0
8	2024-09-30	66.1	0
-	2019-09-30	66.1	0
9	2004-09-30	65.0	0
10	2014-09-30	64.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-09-30	69.4	1
2	2011-09-30	68.6	0
3	2010-09-30	66.9	0
4	2017-09-30	66.3	0
5	2020-09-30	65.1	0
6	2007-09-30	64.8	0
7	2024-09-30	64.5	0
8	2014-09-30	64.3	0
9	2015-09-30	63.5	0
10	2019-09-30	62.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-09-30	73.2	1
2	2017-09-30	72.0	0
3	2011-09-30	71.8	0
4	1959-09-30	71.6	0
-	1920-09-30	71.6	0
5	2010-09-30	71.2	0
6	1945-09-30	71.0	0
7	1933-09-30	70.5	0
8	1923-09-30	69.9	0
9	1910-09-30	69.8	2
10	1970-09-30	69.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1881-09-30	77.5	0
2	2025-09-30	75.0	1
3	1959-09-30	73.3	0
4	2011-09-30	73.1	0
5	2010-09-30	72.6	0
6	1986-09-30	72.1	0
7	2017-09-30	72.0	0
8	1920-09-30	71.1	1
9	2007-09-30	70.5	0
10	2019-09-30	70.4	0
-	1968-09-30	70.4	0
-	1933-09-30	70.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-09-30	71.0	1
2	1959-09-30	70.9	0
3	2011-09-30	69.5	0
4	2017-09-30	69.1	0
5	1970-09-30	69.0	0
6	2010-09-30	68.7	0
7	2007-09-30	67.6	0
8	1986-09-30	66.9	0
9	1968-09-30	66.7	0
10	2020-09-30	66.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-09-30	72.5	1
2	1959-09-30	72.4	0
3	2011-09-30	71.7	0
4	2010-09-30	71.6	0
5	2017-09-30	70.9	0
6	1986-09-30	69.8	0
7	1968-09-30	69.6	0
8	2007-09-30	69.2	0
9	2015-09-30	69.1	0
10	2020-09-30	68.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-09-30	74.5	1
2	1959-09-30	74.3	0
3	2007-09-30	73.8	0
4	2010-09-30	73.7	0
5	2011-09-30	72.1	0
6	2017-09-30	72.0	0
7	2020-09-30	71.9	0
8	1986-09-30	71.7	0
9	2019-09-30	71.4	0
10	1968-09-30	69.7	0
-	1945-09-30	69.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-09-30	74.0	1
2	2010-09-30	71.1	0
3	2011-09-30	70.7	0
4	2017-09-30	69.6	0
5	2007-09-30	68.1	0
6	2020-09-30	68.0	0
-	1986-09-30	68.0	0
8	2015-09-30	66.9	0
9	1972-09-30	66.4	0
10	2019-09-30	66.3	0
11	2014-09-30	65.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-09-30	72.1	1
2	2011-09-30	71.5	0
3	2010-09-30	71.2	0
4	1970-09-30	70.4	2
5	1959-09-30	69.9	0
6	2020-09-30	69.1	0
7	2017-09-30	67.9	0
8	2019-09-30	67.0	0
-	2007-09-30	67.0	0
10	2024-09-30	66.1	0
11	2014-09-30	65.5	0

 

[Dark Star]

12 hours ago, Sundog said:

It was seasonable when taken as a whole   

I'm not going to do celebratory backflips because we achieved normal temps when ranked against the warmest 30 year average we've ever had lol

I'm not impressed 

Yes, but I welcomed it.  I actually saw some local ponds freeze in Union County, NJ.

[SACRUS]

 

64 / 60 cloudy.   Clouds all the way linked down to the Imelda / front  - no rain.  Clouds lingering may break the 80s streak for those that continued it yesterday.   Cool ENE/NE flow for 48 hours Wed and Thu before flow comes around wirh ridge into the northeast.   Warm to much warmer Fri - Tue next week with more low- mid 80s in the warmest spots.  Overall above normal beyond there.