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September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum


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47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

relatively speaking yes especially compared to the last 2

Two out of three months finished above normal using 1981-2010 normals. 

Under no circumstances would you call that quite cold. 

 

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Above normal temperatures will continue through tomorrow, the remainder of September. 

The start of October will start with arrival of the coolest air mass so far this season, but temperatures will likely quickly moderate, rising to above normal levels within a few days.

The guidance and historical experience following a second half September mean temperature of 70° or above suggest that October will be warmer than normal in the New York City area. The two most recent Octobers with a cooler than normal first half like 2025 and a second half with a mean temperature of 70° or above were: 2017 (October mean temperature: 64.1° and October 2019: October mean temperature 59.9°).

Imelda will approach the South Carolina coast but then turn out to sea avoiding U.S. landfall on account of Fujiwhara interaction with the stronger Humberto. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was -16.99 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.298 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.5° (1.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

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4 hours ago, uofmiami said:

74.9 only so far for both my stations.  You have more sun or temp sensor is at EWR, lol

The nearest PWS to me were all 79-80. Center island was warm today for whatever reason. 

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4 hours ago, uofmiami said:

74.9 only so far for both my stations.  You have more sun or temp sensor is at EWR, lol

Islip also hit 79 3-4 hours ago. North shore was cooler. 

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2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

The pattern going forward looks very similar to October 1963 which was remarkably warm, dry and sunny for almost the entire month. Another similar feature was a long-lived meandering hurricane off the southeast coast. I recall the month from a location near Toronto where we had absolutely no rain from the 1st to 30th and only avoided a total drought when it rained on the 31st. November 1963 was then very mild and unsettled, December was quite cold and snowy. 

 

You could also say it will be a lot like last October was.

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19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The nearest PWS to me were all 79-80. Center island was warm today for whatever reason. 

I looked on the Davis map & saw your station and one in Dix Hills were 80, others around 78-79.  I was just busted your chops.  There was more sun further E & winds out of the N kept N Shore in check, as my stations topped off around 75 (74.9 & 75.1) from this morning due to cloud cover the rest of the day.

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52 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Two out of three months finished above normal using 1981-2010 normals. 

Under no circumstances would you call that quite cold. 

 

Change with the times dude, unless you are still playing with gi joes and transformers.  

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3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Change with the times dude, unless you are still playing with gi joes and transformers.  

I'm not changing when those averages were being used just 4 years ago. 

This isn't 60 years ago we're talking about. 

So if averages one day become 50 in NYC for January I'm supposed to pretend that an average of 48 is cold? Haha never happening lol

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43 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

In general, it was seasonably cold.  I believe 2 months actually averaged below normal?

It was seasonable when taken as a whole   

I'm not going to do celebratory backflips because we achieved normal temps when ranked against the warmest 30 year average we've ever had lol

I'm not impressed 

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