September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

To be fair, last Fall was warmer than this but the Winter was quite cold, we just didn't get the precipitation timed quite right.

Winter was quite cold?

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Winter was quite cold?

relatively speaking yes especially compared to the last 2

[Sundog]

47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

relatively speaking yes especially compared to the last 2

Two out of three months finished above normal using 1981-2010 normals. 

Under no circumstances would you call that quite cold. 

 

[donsutherland1]

Above normal temperatures will continue through tomorrow, the remainder of September. 

The start of October will start with arrival of the coolest air mass so far this season, but temperatures will likely quickly moderate, rising to above normal levels within a few days.

The guidance and historical experience following a second half September mean temperature of 70° or above suggest that October will be warmer than normal in the New York City area. The two most recent Octobers with a cooler than normal first half like 2025 and a second half with a mean temperature of 70° or above were: 2017 (October mean temperature: 64.1° and October 2019: October mean temperature 59.9°).

Imelda will approach the South Carolina coast but then turn out to sea avoiding U.S. landfall on account of Fujiwhara interaction with the stronger Humberto. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was -16.99 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.298 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.5° (1.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[psv88]

4 hours ago, uofmiami said:

74.9 only so far for both my stations.  You have more sun or temp sensor is at EWR, lol

The nearest PWS to me were all 79-80. Center island was warm today for whatever reason. 

[psv88]

4 hours ago, uofmiami said:

74.9 only so far for both my stations.  You have more sun or temp sensor is at EWR, lol

Islip also hit 79 3-4 hours ago. North shore was cooler. 

[psv88]

[psv88]

Just now, psv88 said:

That’s the neighboring PWS. 

[psv88]

Farmingdale also hit 79 today…I guess ISP and FRG also have sensor issues? Lol

 

@uofmiami