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September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum


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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still the coldest 14 day period at Islip.

Minimum 14-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2025-09-21
1 11.4 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-19 0
2 11.5 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-20 0
3 11.9 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-18 0
4 12.5 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-21 0
5 13.4 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-17 0
6 13.8 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-22 0
7 14.6 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-13 0
8 14.8 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-12 0
9 15.0 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-16 0
10 15.4 1979-02-10 through 1979-02-23 0
11 15.5 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-14 0
12 15.9 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-15 0
13 16.0 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-11 0
14 16.3 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-15 0
15 16.3 1968-01-04 through 1968-01-17 0
16 16.5 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-14 0
- 16.5 1968-01-05 through 1968-01-18 0
17 16.8 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-16 0
18 17.2 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-24 0
19 17.4 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-08 0
20 17.4 1981-01-01 through 1981-01-14 0
21 17.5 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-16 0
- 17.5 1981-01-02 through 1981-01-15 0
22 17.7 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-13 0
- 17.7 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-10 0

 

1979-02-06 25 13 19.0 -12.9 46 0 0.00 0.0 0
1979-02-07 22 13 17.5 -14.5 47 0 0.65 6.5 0
1979-02-08 30 17 23.5 -8.6 41 0 0.03 0.3 7
1979-02-09 19 8 13.5 -18.7 51 0 0.00 0.0 6
1979-02-10 15 -1 7.0 -25.4 58 0 0.00 0.0 5
1979-02-11 11 -2 4.5 -28.0 60 0 0.00 0.0 4
1979-02-12 15 -6 4.5 -28.2 60 0 0.09 0.9 2
1979-02-13 12 5 8.5 -24.3 56 0 T T 3
1979-02-14 13 -1 6.0 -27.0 59 0 0.00 0.0 3
1979-02-15 20 9 14.5 -18.6 50 0 T T 2
1979-02-16 18 8 13.0 -20.3 52 0 0.02 0.2 1
1979-02-17 10 0 5.0 -28.5 60 0 0.00 0.0 1
1979-02-18 14 -2 6.0 -27.7 59 0 0.00 0.0 1
1979-02-19 24 10 17.0 -16.9 48 0 0.88 8.8 2

We had PD1 in February that winter that fringed the area but was still enough for over a foot of snow for the city and Long Island.  I wonder if anyone on the south shore saw close to 20 inches in that storm?

 

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still the coldest 14 day period at Islip.

Minimum 14-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2025-09-21
1 11.4 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-19 0
2 11.5 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-20 0
3 11.9 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-18 0
4 12.5 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-21 0
5 13.4 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-17 0
6 13.8 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-22 0
7 14.6 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-13 0
8 14.8 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-12 0
9 15.0 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-16 0
10 15.4 1979-02-10 through 1979-02-23 0
11 15.5 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-14 0
12 15.9 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-15 0
13 16.0 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-11 0
14 16.3 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-15 0
15 16.3 1968-01-04 through 1968-01-17 0
16 16.5 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-14 0
- 16.5 1968-01-05 through 1968-01-18 0
17 16.8 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-16 0
18 17.2 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-24 0
19 17.4 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-08 0
20 17.4 1981-01-01 through 1981-01-14 0
21 17.5 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-16 0
- 17.5 1981-01-02 through 1981-01-15 0
22 17.7 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-13 0
- 17.7 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-10 0

 

1979-02-06 25 13 19.0 -12.9 46 0 0.00 0.0 0
1979-02-07 22 13 17.5 -14.5 47 0 0.65 6.5 0
1979-02-08 30 17 23.5 -8.6 41 0 0.03 0.3 7
1979-02-09 19 8 13.5 -18.7 51 0 0.00 0.0 6
1979-02-10 15 -1 7.0 -25.4 58 0 0.00 0.0 5
1979-02-11 11 -2 4.5 -28.0 60 0 0.00 0.0 4
1979-02-12 15 -6 4.5 -28.2 60 0 0.09 0.9 2
1979-02-13 12 5 8.5 -24.3 56 0 T T 3
1979-02-14 13 -1 6.0 -27.0 59 0 0.00 0.0 3
1979-02-15 20 9 14.5 -18.6 50 0 T T 2
1979-02-16 18 8 13.0 -20.3 52 0 0.02 0.2 1
1979-02-17 10 0 5.0 -28.5 60 0 0.00 0.0 1
1979-02-18 14 -2 6.0 -27.7 59 0 0.00 0.0 1
1979-02-19 24 10 17.0 -16.9 48 0 0.88 8.8 2

OMG that is just glorious!

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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 Islip.

 

1979-02-06 25 13 19.0 -12.9 46 0 0.00 0.0 0
1979-02-07 22 13 17.5 -14.5 47 0 0.65 6.5 0
1979-02-08 30 17 23.5 -8.6 41 0 0.03 0.3 7
1979-02-09 19 8 13.5 -18.7 51 0 0.00 0.0 6
1979-02-10 15 -1 7.0 -25.4 58 0 0.00 0.0 5
1979-02-11 11 -2 4.5 -28.0 60 0 0.00 0.0 4
1979-02-12 15 -6 4.5 -28.2 60 0 0.09 0.9 2
1979-02-13 12 5 8.5 -24.3 56 0 T T 3
1979-02-14 13 -1 6.0 -27.0 59 0 0.00 0.0 3
1979-02-15 20 9 14.5 -18.6 50 0 T T 2
1979-02-16 18 8 13.0 -20.3 52 0 0.02 0.2 1
1979-02-17 10 0 5.0 -28.5 60 0 0.00 0.0 1
1979-02-18 14 -2 6.0 -27.7 59 0 0.00 0.0 1
1979-02-19 24 10 17.0 -16.9 48 0 0.88 8.8 2

I have never been able to unravel the mystery of airport snow-depth reporting.

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55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah and it's almost comical how quickly the changeover comes in.

I'll tell you what the "fake cold" is good for though, cooling surfaces down so that when it starts to snow it sticks better. 

Many times the city will get snow, but we are sitting in the upper 30s waiting for precip to drag our temps down to freezing. Meanwhile several hours earlier some locations were radiating and cooled into the 20s while skies were still clear. That allowed for surfaces to cool down nicely so that even if temps did jump back to the mid 30s when clouds moved in, surfaces are not cooling down from being in the 40s because of solar insolation from earlier in the day, they are warming up from being in the 20s. 

It makes a nice difference in terms of stickage.  

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3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I'll tell you what the "fake cold" is good for though, cooling surfaces down so that when it starts to snow it sticks better. 

Many times the city will get snow, but we are sitting in the upper 30s waiting for precip to drag our temps down to freezing. Meanwhile several hours earlier some locations were radiating and cooled into the 20s while skies were still clear. That allowed for surfaces to cool down nicely so that even if temps did jump back to the mid 30s when clouds moved in, surfaces are not cooling down from being in the 40s because of solar insolation from earlier in the day, they are warming up from being in the 20s. 

It makes a nice difference in tyerms of stickage.  

I remember this happening during an SWFE back in February 2008 and it was a big surprise 6-8 inches of snow -- the changeover happened after the heaviest snow moved away and ended as drizzle.  Everything had to be timed just right, the heavy snow came in like a wall at around 2-3 am and it snowed heavily into the morning and ended around 9 am as drizzle.  It came in so quickly that it just didn't have a chance to changeover during the meat of the storm.

 

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1 hour ago, MANDA said:

WPC usually on the conservative side so if you are looking / hoping for meaningful rain you gotta like the look of this.  As Walt said still a ways off and details not solid but nice starting point.

Screenshot 2025-09-22 at 9.40.14 AM.jpg

we really do not need or want this much flooding rain, 1-2 inches of rain like before is just fine and not days and days of depressing cloudiness either.

 

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Islip had some weird snowfall reporting back then, thankfully their snowfall reporting was good for February 1978 (unlike JFK).

I said "snow depth"  That mystery hasn't changed.  FWIW those daily snowfall totals from ISP in 1979 look reasonable.  Here is Syosset comparison for the same period:

 

  Syosset   ISP
1979  F E B   F E B
Day    
6 0.0 0.0
7 6.3 6.5
8 T 0.3
9 0.0 0.0
10 0.0 0.0
11 0.0 0.0
12 1.5 0.9
13 T T
14 0.0 0.0
15 1.0 T
16 0.2 0.2
17 0.0 0.0
18 0.0 0.0
19 10.1 8.8


 

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9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I said "snow depth"  That hasn't changed.  FWIW those daily snowfall totals from ISP in 1979 look reasonable.  Here is Syosset comparison for the same period:

 

  Syosset   ISP
1979  F E B   F E B
Day    
6 0.0 0.0
7 6.3 6.5
8 T 0.3
9 0.0 0.0
10 0.0 0.0
11 0.0 0.0
12 1.5 0.9
13 T T
14 0.0 0.0
15 1.0 T
16 0.2 0.2
17 0.0 0.0
18 0.0 0.0
19 10.1 8.8


 

PD1 was pretty big, there must have been more snowfall than ISP at JFK and some of the other south shore locations.

 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We had PD1 in February that winter that fringed the area but was still enough for over a foot of snow for the city and Long Island.  I wonder if anyone on the south shore saw close to 20 inches in that storm?

 

Areas closer to Southern NJ did.

Data for February 18, 1979 through February 19, 1979
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
TUCKERTON 2 NE COOP 21.0
ESTELL MANOR COOP 19.4
CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 18.2
FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 18.0
RAHWAY COOP 18.0
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 17.1
Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 17.1
WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 17.0
PLAINFIELD COOP 17.0
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 16.6
Newark Area ThreadEx 16.6
AUDUBON COOP 14.0
BELVIDERE COOP 14.0
Belvidere Area ThreadEx 14.0
MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 12.5
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 12.0
PEMBERTON COOP 12.0
MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 12.0
LAMBERTVILLE COOP 12.0
INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 11.6
CRANFORD COOP 11.0
CANOE BROOK COOP 11.0
MIDLAND PARK COOP 11.0
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 10.5
SANDY HOOK COOP 10.0

 

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5 hours ago, steve392 said:

OMG that is just glorious!

Still the record for number of days with lows at or below 0° at Islip.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb Days with low temperature at or below 0°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1978-1979 6 0
2 1964-1965 4 0
3 1967-1968 3 0
- 1966-1967 3 0
4 1987-1988 2 0
- 1983-1984 2 0
- 1981-1982 2 0
- 1980-1981 2 0
5 2015-2016 1 0
- 2013-2014 1 0
- 1984-1985 1 0
- 1976-1977 1 0
- 1975-1976 1 0
- 1973-1974 1 0
- 1969-1970 1 0
- 1963-1964 1 2

 

Data for December 1, 1978 through February 28, 1979 Days with low temperature at of below 0°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 16
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 11
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 11
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 11
NY CARMEL COOP 10
CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 9
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 9
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 8
NJ CRANFORD COOP 8
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 8
NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 8
NY SUFFERN COOP 8
CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 8
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 8
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 7
NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 7
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 7
CT DANBURY COOP 7
NY SCARSDALE COOP 7
CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 7
CT GROTON COOP 7
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 6
NY WEST POINT COOP 6
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 6
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 6
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 5
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 5
NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 5
CT NEW HAVEN COOP 5
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 5

 

Data for December 1, 1978 through February 28, 1979 Days with low temperature at or below 0°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 16
PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 14
NJ LONG VALLEY COOP 13
NJ NEWTON COOP 13
NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 13
PA COATESVILLE 1 SW COOP 10
NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 10
PA READING 4 NNW COOP 10
NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 10
NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 9
NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 9
NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 9
PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 9
NJ BELVIDERE COOP 9
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It will turn noticeably warmer tomorrow before a weak cool front crosses the region on Wednesday. Highs tomorrow will likely reach the lower 80s with some middle 80s in the warmer spots. The advancing front could trigger some showers or thundershowers.

Additional rain is possible Thursday into Saturday as a series of low pressure systems move along the frontal boundary. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was -1.19 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.147 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.4° (0.2° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still the record for number of days with lows at or below 0° at Islip.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb Days with low temperature at or below 0°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1978-1979 6 0
2 1964-1965 4 0
3 1967-1968 3 0
- 1966-1967 3 0
4 1987-1988 2 0
- 1983-1984 2 0
- 1981-1982 2 0
- 1980-1981 2 0
5 2015-2016 1 0
- 2013-2014 1 0
- 1984-1985 1 0
- 1976-1977 1 0
- 1975-1976 1 0
- 1973-1974 1 0
- 1969-1970 1 0
- 1963-1964 1 2

 

Data for December 1, 1978 through February 28, 1979 Days with low temperature at of below 0°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 16
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 11
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 11
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 11
NY CARMEL COOP 10
CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 9
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 9
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 8
NJ CRANFORD COOP 8
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 8
NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 8
NY SUFFERN COOP 8
CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 8
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 8
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 7
NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 7
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 7
CT DANBURY COOP 7
NY SCARSDALE COOP 7
CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 7
CT GROTON COOP 7
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 6
NY WEST POINT COOP 6
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 6
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 6
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 5
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 5
NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 5
CT NEW HAVEN COOP 5
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 5

 

Data for December 1, 1978 through February 28, 1979 Days with low temperature at or below 0°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 16
PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 14
NJ LONG VALLEY COOP 13
NJ NEWTON COOP 13
NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 13
PA COATESVILLE 1 SW COOP 10
NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 10
PA READING 4 NNW COOP 10
NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 10
NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 9
NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 9
NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 9
PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 9
NJ BELVIDERE COOP 9

I was still just a twinkly in my dad's eye that winter LOL

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I mostly remember how cold it was waiting for the school bus every morning during those late 70s winters.

We were the first stop in the morning and we lived close to the bus yard-the bus had the heat on by the time it reached us, but the seats were frozen solid.   Ah the memories...

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Still the record for number of days with lows at or below 0° at Islip.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb Days with low temperature at or below 0°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1978-1979 6 0
2 1964-1965 4 0
3 1967-1968 3 0
- 1966-1967 3 0
4 1987-1988 2 0
- 1983-1984 2 0
- 1981-1982 2 0
- 1980-1981 2 0
5 2015-2016 1 0
- 2013-2014 1 0
- 1984-1985 1 0
- 1976-1977 1 0
- 1975-1976 1 0
- 1973-1974 1 0
- 1969-1970 1 0
- 1963-1964 1 2

 

Data for December 1, 1978 through February 28, 1979 Days with low temperature at of below 0°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 16
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 11
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 11
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 11
NY CARMEL COOP 10
CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 9
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 9
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 8
NJ CRANFORD COOP 8
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 8
NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 8
NY SUFFERN COOP 8
CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 8
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 8
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 7
NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 7
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 7
CT DANBURY COOP 7
NY SCARSDALE COOP 7
CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 7
CT GROTON COOP 7
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 6
NY WEST POINT COOP 6
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 6
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 6
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 5
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 5
NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 5
CT NEW HAVEN COOP 5
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 5

 

Data for December 1, 1978 through February 28, 1979 Days with low temperature at or below 0°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 16
PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 14
NJ LONG VALLEY COOP 13
NJ NEWTON COOP 13
NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 13
PA COATESVILLE 1 SW COOP 10
NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 10
PA READING 4 NNW COOP 10
NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 10
NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 9
NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 9
NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 9
PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 9
NJ BELVIDERE COOP 9

Weird and NYC only had 1?

1993-94 was better in that regard, NYC had 3.

 

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49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I mostly remember how cold it was waiting for the school bus every morning during those late 70s winters.

January 1985 had our deepest arctic outbreak though and that's the one I remember.  The last time JFK went below 0.  The high was in the single digits too, which is extremely rare here.

 

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19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

January 1985 had our deepest arctic outbreak though and that's the one I remember.  The last time JFK went below 0.  The high was in the single digits too, which is extremely rare here.

 

What about around Xmas time a couple of years ago. I kinda remember hitting 4 degrees I need to look it up. 

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