MJO812 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is the most useless tropical season that I can recall....yet to even acknowledge the season the on blog. Nothing to see here, either.....except the same 2 or 3 "doing it".... This was supposed to be a very active season. Another blown long range outlook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This was supposed to be a very active season. Another blown long range outlook. No, it wasn't...it was supposed to slightly more active than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, it wasn't...it was supposed to slightly more active than average. This year has been the biggest test of my annual peak season forecast. We're a long way from grading and spiking any footballs, but I'm pleased with my call of a dead period like last year lasting until around 9/20, and activity being focused in the SW Atlantic. A huge part of my forecast can be verified by what happens in the next week or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, it wasn't...it was supposed to slightly more active than average. Maybe according to you but not according to others. O well onto winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Maybe according to you but not according to others. O well onto winter I don't do tropical seasonal calls. Show me the forcast that called for a hyper active season....JB maybe? I guess there is an inherent level of subjetivity at play with respec to what one considers "very" active, but to me, this isn't it. Forecast for 2025 Hurricane Activity Forecast Parameters CSU Forecast for 2025* Average for 1991-2020 *CSU released its first seasonal forecast for 2025 on Thursday, April 3th, with updated forecasts on June 11, July 9th, and Aug 6. Named Storms 16 14.4 Named Storm Days 80 69.4 Hurricanes 8 7.2 Hurricane Days 30 27.0 Major Hurricanes 3 3.2 Major Hurricane Days 8 7.4 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)+ 140 123 ACE West of 60 degrees longitude 87 73 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago FWIW Norton is watching it: Then early next week will have to monitor the tropics as GFS and ECMWF show a potential tropical system approaching from the south, although GEFS and EPS ensembles keep it well to the south through Tue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Even the runs that bring it to NC coast. With that HP up there.. how can it come north ? Have to hope for an ease with the confluence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Have to hope for an ease with the confluence. That’s about as likely as you posting a picture of your patrol car 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't do tropical seasonal calls. Show me the forcast that called for a hyper active season....JB maybe? I guess there is an inherent level of subjetivity at play with respec to what one considers "very" active, but to me, this isn't it. Forecast for 2025 Hurricane Activity Forecast Parameters CSU Forecast for 2025* Average for 1991-2020 *CSU released its first seasonal forecast for 2025 on Thursday, April 3th, with updated forecasts on June 11, July 9th, and Aug 6. Named Storms 16 14.4 Named Storm Days 80 69.4 Hurricanes 8 7.2 Hurricane Days 30 27.0 Major Hurricanes 3 3.2 Major Hurricane Days 8 7.4 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)+ 140 123 ACE West of 60 degrees longitude 87 73 people hear what they want to hear...we get a dud winter and folks yell bust even though no one predicted a big winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, it wasn't...it was supposed to slightly more active than average. Accuweather said 13 to 18 named. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: Accuweather said 13 to 18 named. Well, the lower end of that range is actually below average, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, the lower end of that range is actually below average, so... Both will be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago If anything came up the coast it would transition to a cold core system so quickly. It would lose its tropical characteristics upon getting off the Carolina coast. "Worst case" scenario is some much needed rain and probably 30-40 mph gusts, mostly at the coast. And that is even fantasy 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Also AL93 is what would need to develop for any EC interest and it looks like AL94 will be the one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 12, Euro gives some hope.. but not until day 11-12 these models are all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Meh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 27 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: We track Let's go ! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Also AL93 is what would need to develop for any EC interest and it looks like AL94 will be the one Disagree. 93L is far enough east it would’ve always been caught in that weakness and shipped out. 94L is exactly the kind of system that could threaten the EC this year—weak and buried in the Bahamas before finding itself potentially captured by a cutoff or blocked by an over the top ridge. We should all be selling the ops but the ensembles have been clear this is something to watch for the east coast if not a bona fide threat, which I’m not ready to call yet. NOAA is taking it seriously—we’re already getting key messages and recon out there. Edit: usual caveats for New England—meh, this no chance here, don’t waste your time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Disagree. 93L is far enough east it would’ve always been caught in that weakness and shipped out. 94L is exactly the kind of system that could threaten the EC this year—weak and buried in the Bahamas before finding itself potentially captured by a cutoff or blocked by an over the top ridge. We should all be selling the ops but the ensembles have been clear this is something to watch for the east coast if not a bona fide threat, which I’m not ready to call yet. NOAA is taking it seriously—we’re already getting key messages and recon out there. Edit: usual caveats for New England—meh, this no chance here, don’t waste your time. Yes, you're right...I got my invests mixed up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago looks like we have Humberto at 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yes, you're right...I got my invests mixed up That’s happened to me several times already. They’ll have names soon enough. Imelda could’ve been retired the first time around. Second time’s the charm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago It's too bad because the trough over the upper OV and SE sort of argue to try and pull it closer, but again....massive gyre well N and NE of New England tries to come down and push it OTS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's too bad because the trough over the upper OV and SE sort of argue to try and pull it closer, but again....massive gyre well N and NE of New England tries to come down and push it OTS. Yeah there's one piece that seemingly wants to be in place, but unless the ridge is rolling over into SE Canada it's going to be hard to block an escape if this tries heading our way. We'll see how much, if any, things change as we get recon/balloon data and see how Humberto affects things. Part of me is wondering if Humberto takes off intensity wise and gets poleward faster for its escape if that closes the door for a future Imelda escape. I mean the 12z Euro (we sell for now) does what it does because that ridge builds over the top and into SE Canada before Imelda can escape. I still think if anything this is a Carolinas threat or OTS but we have a long way to go. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah there's one piece that seemingly wants to be in place, but unless the ridge is rolling over into SE Canada it's going to be hard to block an escape if this tries heading our way. We'll see how much, if any, things change as we get recon/balloon data and see how Humberto affects things. Part of me is wondering if Humberto takes off intensity wise and gets poleward faster for its escape if that closes the door for a future Imelda escape. I mean the 12z Euro (we sell for now) does what it does because that ridge builds over the top and into SE Canada before Imelda can escape. I still think if anything this is a Carolinas threat or OTS but we have a long way to go. 18z GFS figured out there will be two storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 28 minutes ago Share Posted 28 minutes ago GEFS also more robust with two storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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