Tracking the tropics - 2025

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the most useless tropical season that I can recall....yet to even acknowledge the season the on blog. Nothing to see here, either.....except the same 2 or 3 "doing it"....

This was supposed to be a very active season. Another blown long range outlook.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This was supposed to be a very active season. Another blown long range outlook.

No, it wasn't...it was supposed to slightly more active than average.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it wasn't...it was supposed to slightly more active than average.

This year has been the biggest test of my annual peak season forecast. We're a long way from grading and spiking any footballs, but I'm pleased with my call of a dead period like last year lasting until around 9/20, and activity being focused in the SW Atlantic. A huge part of my forecast can be verified by what happens in the next week or so. 

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it wasn't...it was supposed to slightly more active than average.

Maybe according to you but not according to others. O well onto winter 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe according to you but not according to others. O well onto winter 

I don't do tropical seasonal calls.  Show me the forcast that called for a hyper active season....JB maybe?

I guess there is an inherent level of subjetivity at play with respec to what one considers "very" active, but to me, this isn't it.

Forecast for 2025 Hurricane Activity

Forecast Parameters	CSU Forecast for 2025*	Average for 1991-2020
*CSU released its first seasonal forecast for 2025 on Thursday, April 3th, with updated forecasts on June 11, July 9th, and Aug 6.
Named Storms	16	14.4
Named Storm Days	80	69.4
Hurricanes	8	7.2
Hurricane Days	30	27.0
Major Hurricanes	3	3.2
Major Hurricane Days	8	7.4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)+	140	123
ACE West of 60 degrees longitude	87	73

[Cyclone-68]

FWIW Norton is watching it:

Then early next week will
have to monitor the tropics as GFS and ECMWF show a potential
tropical system approaching from the south, although GEFS and EPS
ensembles keep it well to the south through Tue.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Even the runs that bring it to NC coast. With that HP up there.. how can it come north ?

Have to hope for an ease with the confluence.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Have to hope for an ease with the confluence.  

That’s about as likely as you posting a picture of your patrol car 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't do tropical seasonal calls.  Show me the forcast that called for a hyper active season....JB maybe?

I guess there is an inherent level of subjetivity at play with respec to what one considers "very" active, but to me, this isn't it.

Forecast for 2025 Hurricane Activity

Forecast Parameters	CSU Forecast for 2025*	Average for 1991-2020
*CSU released its first seasonal forecast for 2025 on Thursday, April 3th, with updated forecasts on June 11, July 9th, and Aug 6.
Named Storms	16	14.4
Named Storm Days	80	69.4
Hurricanes	8	7.2
Hurricane Days	30	27.0
Major Hurricanes	3	3.2
Major Hurricane Days	8	7.4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)+	140	123
ACE West of 60 degrees longitude	87	73

people hear what they want to hear...we get a dud winter and folks yell bust even though no one predicted a big winter

[cleetussnow]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it wasn't...it was supposed to slightly more active than average.

Accuweather said 13 to 18 named.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Accuweather said 13 to 18 named.  

Well, the lower end of that range is actually below average, so...

[cleetussnow]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, the lower end of that range is actually below average, so...

Both will be wrong.

[weatherwiz]

If anything came up the coast it would transition to a cold core system so quickly. It would lose its tropical characteristics upon getting off the Carolina coast. "Worst case" scenario is some much needed rain and probably 30-40 mph gusts, mostly at the coast. And that is even fantasy 

[weatherwiz]

Also AL93 is what would need to develop for any EC interest and it looks like AL94 will be the one

[ineedsnow]

12, Euro gives some hope.. but not until day 11-12 these models are all over the place

[ineedsnow]

[CoastalWx]

Meh

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We track

Let's go !

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Also AL93 is what would need to develop for any EC interest and it looks like AL94 will be the one

Disagree. 93L is far enough east it would’ve always been caught in that weakness and shipped out. 94L is exactly the kind of system that could threaten the EC this year—weak and buried in the Bahamas before finding itself potentially captured by a cutoff or blocked by an over the top ridge. 

We should all be selling the ops but the ensembles have been clear this is something to watch for the east coast if not a bona fide threat, which I’m not ready to call yet. 

NOAA is taking it seriously—we’re already getting key messages and recon out there.

Edit: usual caveats for New England—meh, this no chance here, don’t waste your time.  

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Disagree. 93L is far enough east it would’ve always been caught in that weakness and shipped out. 94L is exactly the kind of system that could threaten the EC this year—weak and buried in the Bahamas before finding itself potentially captured by a cutoff or blocked by an over the top ridge. 

We should all be selling the ops but the ensembles have been clear this is something to watch for the east coast if not a bona fide threat, which I’m not ready to call yet. 

NOAA is taking it seriously—we’re already getting key messages and recon out there.

Edit: usual caveats for New England—meh, this no chance here, don’t waste your time.  

Yes, you're right...I got my invests mixed up  

[ineedsnow]

looks like we have Humberto at 5pm