Invest 97L - NOW AT 60/90

[WxWatcher007]

That’s a TC to me but maybe the NHC pulls the trigger at 11…

[TampaMan]

2 hours ago, dbullsfan said:

I’m sure a lot of us quietly would love a storm to track and love the natural beauty of big storms, but maybe don’t openly act so excited and seemingly be rooting for a devastating storm. Real lives are affected and it isn’t just a video game. I can only hope as this or any storm gets closer to land these kinds of post get cleaned up. You can start your own wish casting thread if you want but don’t bring it in here.

This is how I felt. I came to this forum rooting for winter weather, and when we did it obviously when it became an emergency situation we would alert people and let them know what to do.  I came here looking for input on a vacation planned Aug 15-22 and noticed there is active rooting for a hurricane to develop and track towards mainland U.S. which just seems felt odd to me. By all means, track and get hyped all you want, but getting excited over one tracking towards us just seems eh..
 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[WxWatcher007]

35 minutes ago, TampaMan said:

 

It’s a small contingent fortunately. 

[bigtenfan]

12 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

If you don’t want a US hit then you want the TC to form as early as possible as stonger storms tend to be pulled poleward quicker.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET for the record:

 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.0N  39.9W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 13.08.2025   60  18.0N  39.9W     1009            30
    1200UTC 13.08.2025   72  17.8N  43.8W     1008            26
    0000UTC 14.08.2025   84  19.0N  46.2W     1009            30
    1200UTC 14.08.2025   96  20.5N  50.1W     1009            30
    0000UTC 15.08.2025  108  21.9N  53.0W     1008            32
    1200UTC 15.08.2025  120  23.3N  55.9W     1006            36
    0000UTC 16.08.2025  132  24.4N  57.9W     1005            43
    1200UTC 16.08.2025  144  25.5N  59.8W     1004            46
    0000UTC 17.08.2025  156  26.7N  60.8W     1002            48
    1200UTC 17.08.2025  168  28.2N  61.2W      998            52

[dbullsfan]

27 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

If you don’t want a US hit then you want the TC to form as early as possible as stonger storms tend to be pulled poleward quicker.

yeah we will see, mother nature can be crazy, but this smells like one for the Fish. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

Bam bam bam

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization 
in association with a well-defined low pressure area located over 
the eastern portion of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Only a small 
increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a 
tropical depression as the low continues moving across the Cabo 
Verde Islands tonight and on Monday.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue 
tonight and Monday across the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests 
there should monitor the progress of this system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so, 
environmental conditions appear conducive for later development, and 
a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by the 
middle to latter portion of this week while moving westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Chinook]

I wonder if the ensemble average/ low SLP spots give a very good indication of where the storm will be at in a week (or more.) (Something like, east of the Bahamas.) I'll try to see what these ensembles say in 2-3 days.

[WE GOT HIM]

Formed too quick. Fish storm

[Torch Tiger]

There seems to be a cluster closer to Bermuda than Bahamas.

[Diggiebot]

3 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

If you don’t want a US hit then you want the TC to form as early as possible as stonger storms tend to be pulled poleward quicker.

That’s what she said 

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, WE GOT HIM said:

Formed too quick. Fish storm

What

[WxWatcher007]

50 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I wonder if the ensemble average/ low SLP spots give a very good indication of where the storm will be at in a week (or more.) (Something like, east of the Bahamas.) I'll try to see what these ensembles say in 2-3 days.

I really like using a “super ensemble” to visualize what’s being modeled, and Tomer has a great site that shows the trend over time.

 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

I wonder if the ensemble average/ low SLP spots give a very good indication of where the storm will be at in a week (or more.) (Something like, east of the Bahamas.) I'll try to see what these ensembles say in 2-3 days.

On this ensemble at least looking at the players on the field the center of the high way out in the Eastern Atlantic would allow this to turn north or even continue westbound depending on high up north along the Eastern States.    Now what is exactly going on along the east coast will tell the tale to where exactly this will go.  I mean right now (and caveat is right now) there is quite a bit of blocking going on off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts the Carolinas by no means are out of the woods at this long lead or up into the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. 

[WxWatcher007]

I mean...that's a TC to me. 

 

SHIPS has continued to get more aggressive with development, and now has this becoming our first major hurricane of the year in a few days when it reaches a more favorable environment. 

97L is getting an upper level assist from a passing CCKW, but heat content and SSTs will significantly improve further west.

 

That said, note the drier air ahead of it though. It may impact its ability to intensify despite its current IR display. 

 

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET recurves along 63.3W:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.8N 32.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2025 36 18.1N 35.6W 1008 32
0000UTC 13.08.2025 48 17.5N 39.4W 1007 29
1200UTC 13.08.2025 60 17.9N 42.4W 1007 30
0000UTC 14.08.2025 72 18.8N 45.3W 1007 31
1200UTC 14.08.2025 84 19.9N 48.8W 1007 31
0000UTC 15.08.2025 96 20.5N 51.8W 1006 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 108 21.0N 54.9W 1005 40
0000UTC 16.08.2025 120 21.7N 57.2W 1004 42
1200UTC 16.08.2025 132 22.8N 60.0W 1003 46
0000UTC 17.08.2025 144 23.9N 61.7W 1003 44
1200UTC 17.08.2025 156 25.7N 63.3W 1003 42
0000UTC 18.08.2025 168 28.1N 63.3W 1003 45

[LakeNormanStormin]

Highly unlikely that thing makes it to the US based on those above graphics. There is a notable northward component this far out. And some projected kinks in the ridge down the road to add.

But it will absolutely moisten the palate for everything that follows.

[TriPol]

Go fishe

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Regardless of eventual direct impacts on the east coast, a major hurricane that makes it west of 60 west will be a prolific swell producer. Since it is relatively early beaches will be impacted. Closures for rip currents, and minor beach erosion.