Hurricane Erin: 140 MPH - 937 mb - NW @ 10

[NJwx85]

12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

A halficane! That is the worst looking cat 4 I've ever seen structurally (realistically has probably dropped back down to cat 3). Should put the lid on intensity, probably for the rest of Erin's truck across the Atlantic 

It’s going through another EWRC and there’s some Northerly shear.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z UKMET gets to only 115 miles SE of Cape Hatteras at hour 72, when it has it still down at 950 mb!

[NJwx85]

IR presentation is improving again as deep convection is wrapping around the Western half.

[Wannabehippie]

5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 18
Location: 24.0°N 71.3°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 937 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
 

[yoda]

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
 
Erin's cloud pattern has become somewhat less organized than 
earlier today, likely as a result of some dry air intrusion over 
the northwestern portion of the circulation and increased northerly 
shear.  An AMSR microwave image from the GCOM satellite showed the 
dry air intrusion which is consistent with the presence of arc 
clouds emanating northwestward from the system.  The northerly 
shear has also begun to restrict the outflow to the north of Erin.  
The intensity is held at 120 kt for now, pending observations from 
another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few hours.  This 
intensity estimate is also consistent with a blend of objective 
values from UW-CIMSS.

After a west-northwestward wobble earlier today, the hurricane has 
resumed its northwest course with a motion estimate of 310/9 kt.  
The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged.  Over 
the next 72 hours or so, Erin should turn northward and move 
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and on the western 
side of a mid-level anticyclone.  Later in the forecast period, an 
approaching mid-level trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

The model guidance and low-level water vapor imagery suggests that 
the dry air incursion into Erin is probably temporary.  However, 
given the degraded cloud pattern and the less conducive shear over 
the system, not much additional strengthening is likely.  In any 
event since the system will remain over warm waters for at least 
the next 72 hours, Erin will likely retain major hurricane status 
through the middle of the week.  The official intensity forecast is 
at the high end of the model guidance.
  
Erin's continued expanding wind field will result in rough ocean 
conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted 
that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in 
the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk 
of those winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind field 
of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind 
field used to derive the wind speed probability product.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected over portions of Hispaniola 
this evening, and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos, the 
southeast Bahamas, and the easternmost central Bahamas.  Flash and 
urban flooding are possible.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos 
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas through this evening.  Tropical 
storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas 
tonight through Tuesday.
 
3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip 
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of 
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. 
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, 
local authorities, and beach warning flags. 
 
4. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in 
the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday where 
Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect.  Interests in 
Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are 
possible beginning on Thursday.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 24.0N  71.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 24.9N  71.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 26.5N  72.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 28.4N  73.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 30.5N  73.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 32.7N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 34.8N  71.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 38.0N  64.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 41.0N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

[WxWatcher007]

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck,
North Carolina including Pamlico Sound
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck,
North Carolina.

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck,
North Carolina including Pamlico Sound
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck,
North Carolina.

Slezak may get a win for his “likely Carolinas” prediction.

@BarryStantonGBP

[wthrmn654]

Consensus model has shifted both north and west this time around!  The amount of shifting past few days is remarkable!

 

Euro cmc, and even some of the more reliable hurricane models had a decent shift west/ north at 12z

[Eskimo Joe]

Already have water overwashing lower Assateague Island.