Weather Will Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM WB 12Z GFS, dry work/ beach week ahead....next chance of rain on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Monday at 01:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:32 PM Spoke to soon about heat not reaching extreme levels, there is a possibility we go higher than 95 degrees, however, at this time it appears the highest air temps will be North of us, where the Euro has 100 + heat . It goes without saying that dew points are going to soar again, along with thunderstorm potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Monday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:42 PM 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Monday at 03:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:47 PM I posted this in the Discobs thread, but it really belongs here. Ensemble guidance is still advertising a shift in the longwave pattern with the upper ridge retrograding into the central/western US for the end of the month into August. That should at least give us some drier air if not notably less hot. That pattern could also put our area in a position for impacts from mesoscale convective systems that develop on the periphery of the ridge and drop southeastward. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Monday at 04:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:06 PM 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @wdrag already mentioning FF pattern concerns up in his area of the NYC forum. Seems the PWATs will be climbing again as we head closer to the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Monday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:17 PM The Euro weeklies and GEFS extended have broken a several week qp agreement toward August as they have consistently agreed on above normal precip for Virginia. The Euro has now shifted toward drier than normal. They both agree on a 500 mb. heat dome centered on Texas, NM and OKL. But, the Euro is east centered compared to 10 days ago. This eliminates any attached troughiness with a dominate NW flow. A dominate NW flow is usually drier than normal, especially for western areas without an attached trough upstream, because it puts us in the rain shadow of the mts. If this upper heights pattern verifies, I would have to lean in the direction of the Euro for the next 30 days. I have received 4.47" during the first 21 days of July compared to a normal 2.94" thru 21 days. 152% of normal. August may flip if the Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Tuesday at 07:52 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 07:52 AM WB OZ EURO precipitation for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Tuesday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:49 PM 8 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ EURO precipitation for the weekend. Ha ha Delaware is the epi center, or in this case the oblong center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Tuesday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:50 PM 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 11:42 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:42 AM ^Still looks like an h5 ridge develops in the central/western US in the LR, so it is debatable how much heat returns even after the cool shot associated with the digging eastern Canada trough lifts out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Wednesday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:07 PM 6 hours ago, CAPE said: ^Still looks like an h5 ridge develops in the central/western US in the LR, so it is debatable how much heat returns even after the cool shot associated with the digging eastern Canada trough lifts out. Appears rain chances are decreasing as a result of this overall pattern change. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Wednesday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:10 PM The WPC has decreased the rainfall potential this weekend, and the 7 day total is generally decreased from the last update. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Thursday at 02:21 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:21 AM The cooldown for the first weekend in August looks legit - very strong ensemble agreement across modeling systems. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Thursday at 02:33 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:33 AM 11 minutes ago, high risk said: The cooldown for the first weekend in August looks legit - very strong ensemble agreement across modeling systems. Please tell me it extends to the next weekend, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 07:50 AM Share Posted Thursday at 07:50 AM 5 hours ago, high risk said: The cooldown for the first weekend in August looks legit - very strong ensemble agreement across modeling systems. I go to the beach from Aug. 2nd to 9th. So naturally, the weather will be bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Thursday at 11:17 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:17 AM 8 hours ago, high risk said: The cooldown for the first weekend in August looks legit - very strong ensemble agreement across modeling systems. EPS has next Friday through the end of the run BN. I’m guessing that duration gets shortened, but looks like a gorgeous weekend at least! Going to make the inevitable late August/early September heatwave even more frustrating lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Thursday at 12:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:23 PM 10 hours ago, high risk said: The cooldown for the first weekend in August looks legit - very strong ensemble agreement across modeling systems. Salivating.... this has been a tuff summer down here for outside work. I put in my time no matter what but there is no way to fully "get used to" the level of soup that has been dominating the weeks since early June. Been tracking this pattern flip closely and making work plans. A 5 consecutive day break from relentless 70+ dews will be a lotto for me. The last few days have been nice but 3 days out of 30 doesn't really do much for my mental state lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted Thursday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:49 PM 10 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: I go to the beach from Aug. 2nd to 9th. So naturally, the weather will be bunk. This is exactly when I am going as well. This has been a trying year and I've been waiting a long time for this week so let's hope it isn't one thunderstorm after another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Ens guidance continues the idea of h5 ridge building out west for early August. For now it looks like we see below avg temps the first few days of the month then probably moderating to around avg. Could be some storms in the Aug 5-7 period if the GFS has the right idea, with some energy digging southward as the western ridge amplifies. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago From the WPC Day 6 to 7 By Wednesday and especially Thursday the cold fronts slowly pushing south could provide a focus for enhanced rain amounts in the East, which will be refined in future forecasts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 2 hours ago, frd said: From the WPC Day 6 to 7 By Wednesday and especially Thursday the cold fronts slowly pushing south could provide a focus for enhanced rain amounts in the East, which will be refined in future forecasts. That would be the front associated with the trough digging southeastward from Canada. Storms are likely along the front and there could be some surface low development. Remains to be seen if it's a quick line of scattered storms for our region with a cooler more refreshing airmass pushing in quickly behind it, or if SLP development along the front slows it a bit with a more prolonged period of rainfall. Still 5-6 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 59 minutes ago, CAPE said: That would be the front associated with the trough digging southeastward from Canada. Storms are likely along the front and there could be some surface low development. Remains to be seen if it's a quick line of scattered storms for our region with a cooler more refreshing airmass pushing in quickly behind it, or if SLP development along the front slows it a bit with a more prolonged period of rainfall. Still 5-6 days out. Yes, will be cool to see how it unfolds. meanwhile Accuweather on the cool down bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 18z GEFS actually really gets us cool Aug 1-7. Could open the month with a -3 to -4 first week, per the ensemble mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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