July Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS, dry work/ beach week ahead....next chance of rain on Saturday.

 

[frd]

Spoke to soon about heat not reaching extreme levels, there is a possibility we go higher than 95 degrees, however, at this time it appears the highest air temps will be North of us, where the Euro has 100 + heat . It goes without saying that dew points are going to soar again, along with thunderstorm potential.

[WxUSAF]

 

[CAPE]

I posted this in the Discobs thread, but it really belongs here.

Ensemble guidance is still advertising a shift in the longwave pattern with the upper ridge retrograding into the central/western US for the end of the month into August. That should at least give us some drier air if not notably less hot. That pattern could also put our area in a position for impacts from mesoscale convective systems that develop on the periphery of the ridge and drop southeastward.

 

[frd]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

@wdrag already mentioning FF pattern concerns up in his area of the NYC forum.  Seems the PWATs will be climbing again as we head closer to the weekend.       

[stormy]

The Euro weeklies and GEFS extended have broken a several week qp agreement toward August as they have consistently agreed on above normal precip for Virginia.  The Euro has now shifted toward drier than normal. 

They both agree on a 500 mb. heat dome centered on Texas, NM and OKL.  But, the Euro is east centered compared to 10 days ago. This eliminates any attached troughiness with a dominate NW flow. 

A dominate NW flow is usually drier than normal, especially for western areas without an attached trough upstream, because it puts us in the rain shadow of the mts.

If this upper heights pattern verifies, I would have to lean in the direction of the Euro for the next 30 days. 

I have received 4.47"  during the first 21 days of July compared to a normal 2.94" thru 21 days.  152% of normal.

August may flip if the Euro is correct.