July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[allgame830]

The storm west of Milford NJ just went severe. 

[allgame830]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NJC037-041-302130-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0200.250730T2039Z-250730T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
439 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Sussex County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Northeastern Warren County in northwestern New Jersey...

* Until 530 PM EDT.

* At 439 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Newton,
  moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to
           roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Newton, Blairstown, Franklin, Ogdensburg, Andover, Lake Mohawk, and
  Greendell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4102 7458 4101 7460 4090 7506 4105 7495
      4117 7462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 264DEG 7KT 4103 7482

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

RCM

 

[forkyfork]

another 100 for ewr

[uofmiami]

96.5 in Muttontown & 95.9 in Syosset for the highs today.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures again soared well into the 90s across the region. High temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 95° (tied record set in 1949)
Islip: 96° (old record: 95°, 1988)
New York City-Central Park: 95°
New York City-JFK Airport: 95°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 99° (tied record set in 1988)
Newark: 100°

A break in the heat is now imminent. A front will cross the region this evening triggering some scattered showers and thundershowers.  A few areas could experience strong or severe thunderstorms.

Behind the front, it will turn cooler for an extended period of time. A widespread 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts of 3.00" or more is likely from tomorrow night into Saturday.

Generally somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through the first week of August. There are hints on the long-range guidance that a new round of heat could develop past August 10th.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +5.97 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.052 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5° (2.0° above normal). 

 

[forkyfork]

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

another 100 for ewr

 

[lee59]

96 my high, now 93.

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

Maybe I'm getting older but these last three days have been absolute hell. I'm straight up not having a good time.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We have a SW or S wind off the water, it’s just not a strong wind and Jones Beach’s water temp is 77 today so less cooling influence. It’s disgusting on the barrier islands-I just saw a 90/78 in Long Beach. That’s all the S wind’s really good for today. 

Yep it actually ended up being my hottest day of the entire month at 97 (third hottest for the year).  JFK hit 95, so that's 3 straight days of 95+ for them.  Ditto for NYC.

 

[Cfa]

Topped out at 99 here, briefly. Generally around 96-97 for much of the day.

Down to 92 now. Feels good.

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures again soared well into the 90s across the region. High temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 95° (tied record set in 1949)
Islip: 96° (old record: 95°, 1988)
New York City-Central Park: 95°
New York City-JFK Airport: 95°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 99° (tied record set in 1988)
Newark: 99°

A break in the heat is now imminent. A front will cross the region this evening triggering some scattered showers and thundershowers.  A few areas could experience strong or severe thunderstorms.

Behind the front, it will turn cooler for an extended period of time. A widespread 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts of 3.00" or more is likely from tomorrow night into Saturday.

Generally somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through the first week of August. There are hints on the long-range guidance that a new round of heat could develop past August 10th.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +5.97 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.052 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5° (2.0° above normal). 

 

Looks like EWR reached 101 again Don

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Cfa said:

Topped out at 99 here.

Less staying power than yesterday’s 100 though, generally around 96-97 for much of the day.

Down to 92 now. Feels good.

thats amazing you hit 100 in Suffolk County yesterday (and 99 today although I thought today was hotter lol.)

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if someone has a flash flood emergency. Meanwhile it’s the hottest day of the season at the beach. We have had 2 heat stroke incidents with people unconscious.

It had to be hotter than this in June, unless you mean just the barrier islands, I dont know the temperatures there but in Far Rockaway, Oceanside, Island Park, Freeport, etc, all these coastal towns were well over 100 degrees in June for 2 days.

 

[Cfa]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thats amazing you hit 100 in Suffolk County yesterday (and 99 today although I thought today was hotter lol.)

I think the dryness is partly to blame. The grass around here has seen better days.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The high temperature potential gets a little lower following each deluge. We were 103°-105° back in June. Then the record rains a few weeks ago. So this warm up only made it to 101° -103°. Maybe when the temps rebound again after the first week of August the max potential will only be 97° -100°. We’ll see how it goes.

I mean the local furnaces made it that high, but I have a strong feeling that in summers past (like 1991, 1993, 1999, etc.)  places like Corona Queens were regularly over 100 degrees.  Places like that probably hit 100 degrees at least once every summer.

The peak was 103-106 in June, but more like 97-101 in July.  The lower sun angle might have more to do with it, as it hasn't been rained here much.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Islip reached 95 for the fifth time this year. That ties 2025 with 1966 and 2010 for the second most such days. The record of seven days was set in 1999.

JFK still well behind its 10 set in 2010.

[donsutherland1]

Newark reached 100° a short time ago.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like EWR reached 101 again Don

 

it reached 100° at 4:40 pm.

[Jersey Andrew]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like EWR reached 101 again Don

 

These heat waves are brutal with these high dew points and humidity. Everyone who left Florida for 

 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean the local furnaces made it that high, but I have a strong feeling that in summers past (like 1991, 1993, 1999, etc.)  places like Corona Queens were regularly over 100 degrees.  Places like that probably hit 100 degrees at least once every summer.

The peak was 103-106 in June, but more like 97-101 in July.  The lower sun angle might have more to do with it, as it hasn't been rained here much.

 

Past heat waves have not been as oppressive with these high dewpoints. The Northeast has become Florida-like in the summer. You can call it anything you want but the climate has changed for the worse and our weather is miserable in July.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

SE flow is cooler off Newark Bay and SW is warmer off the land there.

The really interesting thing is they are always considerably hotter than the rest of us and even exceed Philadelphia in 90 and 100 degree highs.

Sometimes JFK is tied with them in heat on a downsloping wind, but they're usually ahead of everyone else even then.

1993 was a case in point, 9 100+ degree days at EWR, 3 100+ degree days at NYC, and 2 100+ degree days at JFK and this was before the ASOS and/or siting issues.

And I read that the siting isn't as much of an issue with Central Park, as is the switch to ASOS.  Why did we switch to ASOS in the first place? I liked what we had before it was much more accurate (with temperatures and wind speeds and precipitation type.)

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, weathermedic said:

94/76 at my station with a southerly wind

It got to 97 here on a southerly wind, my hottest of the month

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Another issue is the winds stay up in the city at night while they go dead in rural areas, adding to the UHI woes.

 

Normally, you'd want some winds at night.  The winds aid in evaporative cooling off your skin to make you feel cooler.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, some of the backyard weather stations are pushing 80 degree dewpoints on the barrier islands.

well now that we know that Tampa can hit 100 degrees I guess we can too.

I read they just had their highest ever heat index of 113 too.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

These heat waves are brutal with these high dew points and humidity. Everyone who left Florida for 

 

Past heat waves have not been as oppressive with these high dewpoints. The Northeast has become Florida-like in the summer. You can call it anything you want but the climate has changed for the worse and our weather is miserable in July.

yep and even Florida is hitting 100 more often now-- Tampa hit 100 for the first time ever and a record setting 113 heat index too.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It’s about time for our August deluge. The warm 77 degree waters will give plenty of fuel. 

Remember August 2011?? After it hit 103 and 102 on back to back days on July 22 and July 23 2011 at JFK, we had 10 inches of rain on August 14 2011; this was 2 weeks before Irene.  A Saturday all day heavy rain!!

The SST peaked in the low 80s because of all that heat, around 83 degrees.

[TheClimateChanger]

54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures again soared well into the 90s across the region. High temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 95° (tied record set in 1949)
Islip: 96° (old record: 95°, 1988)
New York City-Central Park: 95°
New York City-JFK Airport: 95°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 99° (tied record set in 1988)
Newark: 100°

A break in the heat is now imminent. A front will cross the region this evening triggering some scattered showers and thundershowers.  A few areas could experience strong or severe thunderstorms.

Behind the front, it will turn cooler for an extended period of time. A widespread 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts of 3.00" or more is likely from tomorrow night into Saturday.

Generally somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through the first week of August. There are hints on the long-range guidance that a new round of heat could develop past August 10th.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +5.97 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.052 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5° (2.0° above normal). 

 

Don, a break in the heat may be coming, but it does look like there's the potential for air quality concerns. Will have to wait & see if this eventually spreads into the northeast as we head into the weekend.

 

[steve392]

My center is getting a good storm, temp dropped to 79 degrees.  At home, it's disgusting and storms going west to east north if me 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Don, a break in the heat may be coming, but it does look like there's the potential for air quality concerns. Will have to wait & see if this eventually spreads into the northeast as we head into the weekend.

 

Tomorrow could be unhealthy. Then, we'll see whether the heavy rain later tomorrow and Friday can wash the particulates out of the air.

[doncat]

Has been dry for some of us as of late, just 0.19" rain here last 16 days .

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It’s about time for our August deluge. The warm 77 degree waters will give plenty of fuel. 

That being said it could also end up as a usual big nothing east of the city if the initial warm frontal rain goes north, then the cold frontal storms do the die out as they head east from the city on Fri AM. That would leave LI as the screw zone.