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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The problem is there are still diesel trucks around.  Air pollution shortens life by about 2.5 years even more than tobacco smoking does.  There are asthma hot spots in northern Queens and in the Bronx in the highest trafficked areas.

Do you know Cancer Alley in Louisiana?

They have another one in Oakland.

There are a few localized spots that still suck but they are way down from what they used to be and even the spots that still suck are better than what they were. 

Overall NO2 in the atmosphere is way down. And we were talking about rural spots anyway, not the Cross Bronx haha

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57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont think you could grow crops here with lows in the 30s, maybe that was a mountaintop thing?

 

I don't think one night in the upper 30s would do much harm to corn/maize. Obviously, if it was consistently cold (and/or moist) that would affect growth. Consistently warm overnight temperatures are a bigger concern because the plant can respire through the night and burn stored energy faster than it can be replenished. Corn is native to higher latitudes in Mexico. It does best with overnight lows from in the 50s/low 60s.

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51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

if that even happened an argument can be made for global warming being a good thing to keep that kind of cold weather away and increase and lengthen the growing season.

 

I'm OK with a couple of degrees.  Things could adapt, and there are indeed benefits for some.  Beyond that though, I think it introduces more problems, some of which are already unfolding like melting glaciers, rising seas, and a positive feedback loop that keeps it all going.  
Regarding your comment on stopping driving cars - not going to happen.  I am waiting for a day when I could buy a relatively inexpensive independently duel powered vehicle, and I'm in.  In other words, the gasoline engine is ready to fire up if I run out of battery.  And eventually, I think, among other problems, we're going to be running into problems of sourcing EV batteries, and disposal of spent batteries.

Cars by themselves are only part of the issue.  It's also the sheer demand of goods and services in this country, as well as our throw away culture.  By a TV, don't like it in a year, or want a better one, or some minor glitch prevents it from working properly?  No problem, just toss it and by a new one.

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52 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The problem is there are still diesel trucks around.  Air pollution shortens life by about 2.5 years even more than tobacco smoking does.  There are asthma hot spots in northern Queens and in the Bronx in the highest trafficked areas.

Do you know Cancer Alley in Louisiana?

They have another one in Oakland.

Eh tobacco smoking takes 5-10 years and often decades off peoples life

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Back then we probably had a lot of volcanic eruptions and nuclear fall out emissions.

It's not part of our climate to get that cold here in July.

 

I would say it is. I asked xAI's Grok to estimate what the climate of New York City would have looked like at the height of the last glacial maximum. I think most here would agree that this is MILES better than the current climate.

Month
Estimated Mean Temperature (°C)
Estimated Mean Temperature (°F)
January
-15 to -10°C
5 to 14°F
February
-14 to -9°C
7 to 16°F
March
-10 to -5°C
14 to 23°F
April
-3 to 2°C
27 to 36°F
May
3 to 8°C
37 to 46°F
June
10 to 15°C
50 to 59°F
July
12 to 17°C
54 to 63°F
August
10 to 15°C
50 to 59°F
September
5 to 10°C
41 to 50°F
October
0 to 5°C
32 to 41°F
November
-5 to 0°C
23 to 32°F
December
-12 to -7°C
10 to 19°F

  • Winter (Dec–Feb): Very cold, with means likely between -15°C and -7°C (5–19°F), similar to modern subarctic or high-latitude tundra climates. Frequent snow was probable, but low precipitation meant less accumulation than in modern snowy regions like upstate New York.
  • Summer (Jun–Aug): Short and cool, with July means likely 12–17°C (54–63°F), resembling modern high-latitude coastal areas (e.g., parts of Iceland or northern Canada). Proximity to the ice sheet and cold Atlantic Ocean currents kept summers chilly.
  • Precipitation and Snow: The climate was drier than today due to cold air holding less moisture. Snow was common in winter, but total accumulation was likely moderate, with a tundra-like landscape. Permafrost was widespread, affecting soil and vegetation.
  • Ice Sheet Influence: The Laurentide Ice Sheet, terminating near Long Island, would have cooled NYC via cold air drainage and albedo effects. Cold ocean currents along the Atlantic coast further suppressed temperatures.
  • Variability: Daily and annual variability was likely high, with cold snaps in winter and occasional warm days in summer. Strong winds from the ice sheet (katabatic winds) could have made conditions feel even colder.

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont think you could grow crops here with lows in the 30s, maybe that was a mountaintop thing?

 

Dipping into the upper 30s periodically back then in July probably wasn’t that much of an issue for the growing season. But August lowest temperatures in the 30s at the Charolotteburg Reservior were a much more common occurrence.

They haven’t dropped below 50° in August since 2017. Their last 30s in August was in 1986. Their earliest first freeze was on 8-25-40. 9-7-84 was their last freeze during the first week of September. So rural NJ used to have a much shorter growing season than it has now. 

The average first freeze was September 26th from 1895 to 1910. From 2010 to 2024 the average first freeze is on October 22nd. 


 

IMG_4271.thumb.jpeg.3d3723b0a36d2512e3f3a60fca427c6f.jpeg

 

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Dipping into the upper 30s periodically back then in July probably wasn’t that much of an issue for the growing season. But August lowest temperatures in the 30s at the Charolotteburg Reservior were a much more common occurrence.

They haven’t dropped below 50° in August since 2017. Their last 30s in August was in 1986. Their earliest first freeze was on 8-25-40. 9-7-84 was their last freeze during the first week of September. So rural NJ used to have a much shorter growing season than it has now. 

The average first freeze was September 26th from 1895 to 1910. From 2010 to 2024 the average first freeze is on October 22nd. 


 

IMG_4271.thumb.jpeg.3d3723b0a36d2512e3f3a60fca427c6f.jpeg

 

This is probably a good thing for the growing season to be longer?

I remember August 1986 that was my first Perseid meteor shower and it was a crystal clear sky with no haze temperatures near 50, felt like early fall.

That first time had the best viewing conditions of any time I've seen it since (outside of the times I've seen them in the Poconos away from light pollution.)

 

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15 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This is an interesting map. Number of 90+ days since June 1. All the long-term climate stations along the I-95 are in the top 10, except for NYC, which is tied for 44th. Things that make you go hmmm...

RtVPjW9.png

this is our best summer since 2010-2011

the ones after 2013 were all mediocre

 

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I would say it is. I asked xAI's Grok to estimate what the climate of New York City would have looked like at the height of the last glacial maximum. I think most here would agree that this is MILES better than the current climate.

 

Month
Estimated Mean Temperature (°C)
Estimated Mean Temperature (°F)
January
-15 to -10°C
5 to 14°F
February
-14 to -9°C
7 to 16°F
March
-10 to -5°C
14 to 23°F
April
-3 to 2°C
27 to 36°F
May
3 to 8°C
37 to 46°F
June
10 to 15°C
50 to 59°F
July
12 to 17°C
54 to 63°F
August
10 to 15°C
50 to 59°F
September
5 to 10°C
41 to 50°F
October
0 to 5°C
32 to 41°F
November
-5 to 0°C
23 to 32°F
December
-12 to -7°C
10 to 19°F

 

  • Winter (Dec–Feb): Very cold, with means likely between -15°C and -7°C (5–19°F), similar to modern subarctic or high-latitude tundra climates. Frequent snow was probable, but low precipitation meant less accumulation than in modern snowy regions like upstate New York.
  • Summer (Jun–Aug): Short and cool, with July means likely 12–17°C (54–63°F), resembling modern high-latitude coastal areas (e.g., parts of Iceland or northern Canada). Proximity to the ice sheet and cold Atlantic Ocean currents kept summers chilly.
  • Precipitation and Snow: The climate was drier than today due to cold air holding less moisture. Snow was common in winter, but total accumulation was likely moderate, with a tundra-like landscape. Permafrost was widespread, affecting soil and vegetation.
  • Ice Sheet Influence: The Laurentide Ice Sheet, terminating near Long Island, would have cooled NYC via cold air drainage and albedo effects. Cold ocean currents along the Atlantic coast further suppressed temperatures.
  • Variability: Daily and annual variability was likely high, with cold snaps in winter and occasional warm days in summer. Strong winds from the ice sheet (katabatic winds) could have made conditions feel even colder.

 

The question is, do we actually want that kind of climate? I would say no, because it would be horrible for the growing season.

The ideal climate is a nice compact winter with lots of snow in January and February, around 3 to 5 feet of snow and then a nice dry hot summer with 30 90 degree days 10 95 degree days and 3 100 degree days.  I know I'm being very specific .... because my favorite season was the period from 2009-10 to 2010-11 for both winter and summer.

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is probably a good thing for the growing season to be longer?

I remember August 1986 that was my first Perseid meteor shower and it was a crystal clear sky with no haze temperatures near 50, felt like early fall.

That first time had the best viewing conditions of any time I've seen it since (outside of the times I've seen them in the Poconos away from light pollution.)

 

The main issue for those areas in NJ with the steadily warming minimums has been insect damage.

https://www.njweather.org/content/seasonal-trends-extreme-minimum-temperatures-six-new-jersey-locations

 

 

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I would say it is. I asked xAI's Grok to estimate what the climate of New York City would have looked like at the height of the last glacial maximum. I think most here would agree that this is MILES better than the current climate.

 

Month
Estimated Mean Temperature (°C)
Estimated Mean Temperature (°F)
January
-15 to -10°C
5 to 14°F
February
-14 to -9°C
7 to 16°F
March
-10 to -5°C
14 to 23°F
April
-3 to 2°C
27 to 36°F
May
3 to 8°C
37 to 46°F
June
10 to 15°C
50 to 59°F
July
12 to 17°C
54 to 63°F
August
10 to 15°C
50 to 59°F
September
5 to 10°C
41 to 50°F
October
0 to 5°C
32 to 41°F
November
-5 to 0°C
23 to 32°F
December
-12 to -7°C
10 to 19°F

 

  • Winter (Dec–Feb): Very cold, with means likely between -15°C and -7°C (5–19°F), similar to modern subarctic or high-latitude tundra climates. Frequent snow was probable, but low precipitation meant less accumulation than in modern snowy regions like upstate New York.
  • Summer (Jun–Aug): Short and cool, with July means likely 12–17°C (54–63°F), resembling modern high-latitude coastal areas (e.g., parts of Iceland or northern Canada). Proximity to the ice sheet and cold Atlantic Ocean currents kept summers chilly.
  • Precipitation and Snow: The climate was drier than today due to cold air holding less moisture. Snow was common in winter, but total accumulation was likely moderate, with a tundra-like landscape. Permafrost was widespread, affecting soil and vegetation.
  • Ice Sheet Influence: The Laurentide Ice Sheet, terminating near Long Island, would have cooled NYC via cold air drainage and albedo effects. Cold ocean currents along the Atlantic coast further suppressed temperatures.
  • Variability: Daily and annual variability was likely high, with cold snaps in winter and occasional warm days in summer. Strong winds from the ice sheet (katabatic winds) could have made conditions feel even colder.

 

this sounds like 1976-77 lol

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Eh tobacco smoking takes 5-10 years and often decades off peoples life

 

it's the average over the entire planet, so taking that into account, people have the choice not to smoke (and very few do anymore) while people don't really have a choice when it comes to air pollution-- it affects minority communities even more because thats where the polluting factories and diesel trucks usually are.

I saw an estimate for Oakland that stated that air pollution has shortened life expectancy there by 8 years, 2.5 years was the planetary average-- so it's much worse in some communities than it is in others.

 

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1 hour ago, Picard said:

I'm OK with a couple of degrees.  Things could adapt, and there are indeed benefits for some.  Beyond that though, I think it introduces more problems, some of which are already unfolding like melting glaciers, rising seas, and a positive feedback loop that keeps it all going.  
Regarding your comment on stopping driving cars - not going to happen.  I am waiting for a day when I could buy a relatively inexpensive independently duel powered vehicle, and I'm in.  In other words, the gasoline engine is ready to fire up if I run out of battery.  And eventually, I think, among other problems, we're going to be running into problems of sourcing EV batteries, and disposal of spent batteries.

Cars by themselves are only part of the issue.  It's also the sheer demand of goods and services in this country, as well as our throw away culture.  By a TV, don't like it in a year, or want a better one, or some minor glitch prevents it from working properly?  No problem, just toss it and by a new one.

Duel powered vehicles are better in that they don't impact the grid or the climate much, you really have the best of both worlds.

We do have an awful consumerist philosophy, eventually we're going to have to retire diesel trucks that ship our goods from coast to coast and replace them with electric trucks.

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't think one night in the upper 30s would do much harm to corn/maize. Obviously, if it was consistently cold (and/or moist) that would affect growth. Consistently warm overnight temperatures are a bigger concern because the plant can respire through the night and burn stored energy faster than it can be replenished. Corn is native to higher latitudes in Mexico. It does best with overnight lows from in the 50s/low 60s.

The reason I said mountaintop is because I've been in the Poconos during the summer and it does get into the 30s there a few nights every summer and it's quite refreshing.  I've never seen it happen in July though, it's happened in the first half of June and the last half of August a bunch of times.

 

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

What a difference up here from yesterday, currently 66/63 and breezy as more rain moves in, I have to admit there is an early fall feel out there for now. 

lol it was a sauna here this morning as hot as it was yesterday, but after 1 pm the temperature suddenly dropped from 93 at 1:10 pm to 86 at 1:30 pm and now I hear thunder and it looks like it's raining at Yankee Stadium??

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1 hour ago, Sundog said:

There are a few localized spots that still suck but they are way down from what they used to be and even the spots that still suck are better than what they were. 

Overall NO2 in the atmosphere is way down. And we were talking about rural spots anyway, not the Cross Bronx haha

I feel bad for those people that live near those highways.  There's also a strong link between children who grow up near highways and autism.  It's probably the strongest environmental link there is.

 

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this sounds like 1976-77 lol

Too bad we didn’t have the forum back in 1976. Can you imagine what the speculation of what the winter would have been like after the record cold in late August?

It would have also been great to have social media with everyone posting photos. The amount of ice on the local waterways by late January 1977 was epic. But there aren’t that many photos still available. All I remember from that winter was how cold it was in the mornings waiting at the bus stop. 
 

Monthly Data for August 1976 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 37
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 38
CT DANBURY COOP 38
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 39
NY CARMEL COOP 39
CT WESTBROOK COOP 39
CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 39
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 40
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 40
NY SCARSDALE COOP 40
CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 40
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 41
CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 41
NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 42
NY SUFFERN COOP 42
NY WEST POINT COOP 42
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 42
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 42
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 43
NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 43
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 43
CT GROTON COOP 43
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 44
NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 44
NY NEW YORK BOTANICAL GARDEN COOP 45
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 45
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 45
NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 46
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 46
NY MINEOLA COOP 46
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 46
CT NEW HAVEN COOP 47
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 47
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 48
NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 48
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 50
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50


 

Monthly Data for August 1976 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 34
PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 35
NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 36
NJ NEWTON COOP 36
PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 37
NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 37
NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 37
NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 38
NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 38
PA PERKASIE COOP 39
PA PALMERTON COOP 39
NJ CHATSWORTH COOP 39
PA GEORGE SCHOOL COOP 39


 

Monthly Data for August 1976 for Burlington VT NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY LAKE PLACID 2 S COOP 27
NY RAY BROOK COOP 28
VT WOODSTOCK COOP 29
VT NORTHFIELD 3 SSE COOP 29
VT NORTHFIELD COOP 29
VT MOUNT MANSFIELD COOP 29
VT SUTTON 2NE COOP 29

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Too bad we didn’t have the forum back in 1976. Can you imagine what the speculation of what the winter would have been like after the record cold in late August?

It would have also been great to have social media with everyone posting photos. The amount of ice on the local waterways by late January 1977 was epic. But there aren’t that many photos still available. All I remember from that winter was how cold it was in the mornings waiting at the bus stop. 
 

Monthly Data for August 1976 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 37
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 38
CT DANBURY COOP 38
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 39
NY CARMEL COOP 39
CT WESTBROOK COOP 39
CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 39
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 40
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 40
NY SCARSDALE COOP 40
CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 40
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 41
CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 41
NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 42
NY SUFFERN COOP 42
NY WEST POINT COOP 42
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 42
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 42
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 43
NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 43
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 43
CT GROTON COOP 43
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 44
NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 44
NY NEW YORK BOTANICAL GARDEN COOP 45
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 45
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 45
NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 46
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 46
NY MINEOLA COOP 46
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 46
CT NEW HAVEN COOP 47
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 47
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 48
NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 48
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 50
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50


 

Monthly Data for August 1976 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 34
PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 35
NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 36
NJ NEWTON COOP 36
PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 37
NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 37
NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 37
NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 38
NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 38
PA PERKASIE COOP 39
PA PALMERTON COOP 39
NJ CHATSWORTH COOP 39
PA GEORGE SCHOOL COOP 39


 

Monthly Data for August 1976 for Burlington VT NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY LAKE PLACID 2 S COOP 27
NY RAY BROOK COOP 28
VT WOODSTOCK COOP 29
VT NORTHFIELD 3 SSE COOP 29
VT NORTHFIELD COOP 29
VT MOUNT MANSFIELD COOP 29
VT SUTTON 2NE COOP 29

 

So you lived in Long Beach in 1976-77 and 1977-78? You saw the epic February 1978 blizzard there then!  I always thought the 14" JFK reported was way too low-- it was probably too hard to measure snow accurately with so much wind!

Were the waterways around Long Beach completely frozen in 1976-77? It must have been a shock to the system when JFK recorded their earliest ever 90 degree day in April 1977!!

 

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24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So you lived in Long Beach in 1976-77 and 1977-78? You saw the epic February 1978 blizzard there then!  I always thought the 14" JFK reported was way too low-- it was probably too hard to measure snow accurately with so much wind!

Were the waterways around Long Beach completely frozen in 1976-77? It must have been a shock to the system when JFK recorded their earliest ever 90 degree day in April 1977!!

 

Yeah, the 1970s were a wild decade living in Long Beach. First, I got flooded out of my basement apartment for a week in 1972 when TS Agnes came ashore with the very heavy rains. Then the December 1974 Nor’easter which flooded the streets with a tidal surge in front of my elementary school.

1976 featured Hurricane Belle in early August when the ocean met the bay in the West End. My friends lived on Gerogia Ave and the tidal surge pushed the ticket booth for the beach passes down the street. Then the record cold at the end of August with 50 around NYC and 30s to the north and west.That was the coldest winter that I ever experienced. It was so cold that I wasn’t able to get down to the local waterways to see how much ice there was. 


Then the January 1978 ice storm which was the worst on the South Shore until January 1994. This was followed by the surprise January 1978 15” snowstorm when heavy rains were forecast. Followed by the epic February 1978 blizzard and snow drifts that the LB city bus got stuck in.

Next on the memorable events list was our coldest 2 week stretch in February 1979 and the PD 1 snowstorm.

The only two major heatwaves in that record cold decade were late August 1973 and mid-July 1977. Outside those two short periods there really wasn’t much need to even turn on the AC much living in Long Beach. Just using a fan was enough most of the time. 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the 1970s were a wild decade living in Long Beach. First, I got flooded out of my basement apartment for a week in 1972 when TS Agnes came ashore with the very heavy rains. Then the December 1974 Nor’easter which flooded the streets with a tidal surge in front of my elementary school.

1976 featured Hurricane Belle in early August when the ocean met the bay in the West End. My friends lived on Gerogia Ave and the tidal surge pushed the ticket booth for the beach passes down the street. Then the record cold at the end of August with 50 around NYC and 30s to the north and west.That was the coldest winter that I ever experienced. It was so cold that I wasn’t able to get down to the local waterways to see how much ice there was. 


Then the January 1978 ice storm which was the worst on the South Shore until January 1994. This was followed by the surprise January 1978 15” snowstorm when heavy rains were forecast. Followed by the epic February 1978 blizzard and snow drifts that the LB city bus got stuck in.

Next on the memorable events list was our coldest 2 week stretch in February 1979 and the PD 1 snowstorm.

The only two major heatwaves in that record cold decade were late August 1973 and mid-July 1977. Outside those two short periods there really wasn’t much need to even turn on the AC much living in Long Beach. Just using a fan was enough most of the time. 

1996 and 2010-12 were the two wild weather periods I remember. This stretch personally since Jan 2022 however by far has been the most boring. 

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