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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


wdrag
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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow could be unhealthy. Then, we'll see whether the heavy rain later tomorrow and Friday can wash the particulates out of the air.

it's interesting how the really long 7+ day heatwaves have become very rare, our last one was in 2013.

Any thoughts on why this has happened Don? Are frontal passages during the summer becoming more common?

I remember during the megaheatwave in July 1993 that lasted 10 days that there was no frontal passage for almost 2 weeks lol.

In July 1999 we had an 11 day heatwave without any frontal passages too!!

My hottest summers prior to 2010: 1993, 1999 and 2002 each had multiple heatwaves of 7+ days.

 

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3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Interestingly the wind veered out of the east strongly with this last tail end of this heavy cell moving through Queens. 

Outflow coming from the storm moving east. Also the storm is collapsing due to becoming dominated by downdrafts. You can see the outflow boundary racing south on radar. 

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22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's interesting how the really long 7+ day heatwaves have become very rare, our last one was in 2013.

Any thoughts on why this has happened Don? Are frontal passages during the summer becoming more common?

I remember during the megaheatwave in July 1993 that lasted 10 days that there was no frontal passage for almost 2 weeks lol.

In July 1999 we had an 11 day heatwave without any frontal passages too!!

My hottest summers prior to 2010: 1993, 1999 and 2002 each had multiple heatwaves of 7+ days.

 

I suspect the changes in Atlantic and Pacific SSTAs have played a role in influencing synoptic patterns and their durability. Out in the Southwest, heat now locks in for longer durations. Heatwaves are more variable in the East (probably a combination of the patterns + wetter climate). 

Central Park notwithstanding, the region is having a hot summer so far. 

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9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect the changes in Atlantic and Pacific SSTAs have played a role in influencing synoptic patterns and their durability. Out in the Southwest, heat now locks in for longer durations. Heatwaves are more variable in the East (probably a combination of the patterns + wetter climate). 

Central Park notwithstanding, the region is having a hot summer so far. 

Yes my best summer since 2010.  But even in 2010 we did not have any 7+ day heatwaves from what I remember, but it was my hottest summer for 90,95 and 100 degree days.

32/11/3 in that department!!!

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I also think they build differently, their buildings don't trap heat like ours do.

Thats true. And central AC is much more common down there. Northeast cities were developed before they was AC or even cars. Down there people go from central ac home, to ac in the car, drive to store with ac and ample parking nearby. Meanwhile people in NY tend to experience the weather more directly every day.

Subway platforms, while always super hot, felt like a new level today. If records were kept on that, it would of broke it. Somewhere in the 110s wouldn't be surprising at stations like Union Sq or BK Bridge.

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JFK Airport (31 days) and Newark (31 days) have tied their July records for most 80F (26.7C) or above days. JFK Airport (2 consecutive years) and Newark (4 consecutive years) have their longest streaks of 31 80F (26.7C) or above July days. Neither site had ever had 2 consecutive such years before their current streaks.

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13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

well now that we know that Tampa can hit 100 degrees I guess we can too.

I read they just had their highest ever heat index of 113 too.

 

Tampa just set their highest heat index at 119°. SMQ reached 118° for the 1st time back in June.

This July at SMQ was the highest average max dew point at 74.2°. This is similar to July at RDU. So the Mid-Atlantic dew points have shifted north into our area.

JFK finished at the 2nd highest avg max dew point at 73.1° just behind the record of 74.1° in 2019. 
 

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82 / 75 clouds to the NYS border.  A race to 90 will likely come up short, but may see some inland/southern areas.   Storms / heavy rain in local areas Thu PM - Fri Pm 2-4 in the heaviest slowest moving storms.   Cloudy / E/ENE flow keeps Friday in the 70s - similar to 6/27.  Onshore barrage E/ENE flow the next 4 - 6 days jeeps  it near / below normal with 90s capped.  Weekend is nice overall 8/2-8/3.  By the 8th flow comes around more south as the atlantic ridge builds in with a warm - hot / humid and wetter overall returning towards the 9th.  Heat expanding from the west - eastward.

7/31:  Hot/ Humid - storms
8/1 :  Cool / cloudy (70s) Onshore
8/2 - 8/8:  Onshore barrage - normal / below normal 
8/9 - beyond :  Warm - hot / humid  wetter overall

 

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