July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[SACRUS]

55 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Weekend looks cooler now-Friday the hottest day

 

Clouds/storms look to limit heating on Saturday , if those are delayed or we have more clearing, then it very hot one.  Sunday looks mainly cloudy and / stormsy.

[FPizz]

59 this morning.  I see there were a few record lows in New England. Nice.

San Francisco isn’t expected to hit 70°F again this July.

 

If that holds, it’ll tie the all-time record: just two days above 70°F in June and July, the fewest since records began in 1874

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

59 this morning.  I see there were a few record lows in New England. Nice.

turned off the AC here for the day-give it a rest and let some fresh air in-69 and breezy right now

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 108 (2011)
NYC: 104 (2011)
LGA: 104 (2011)
JFK: 103 (2011)
Nw Bnswck: 102 (1980)


Lows:

EWR: 56 (1944)
NYC: 58 (1890)
LGA: 62 (1956)
JFK: 59 (1966)
New Bnswck: 51 (1944)


Historical:

 

1918 - A single bolt of lightning struck 504 sheep dead in their tracks at the Wasatch National Forest in Utah. Sheep often herd together in storms, and as a result the shock from the lightning bolt was passed from one animal to another. (David Ludlum)

 

1926: State maximum temperature record was set today at Troy, New York which was 108 °F. Also the maximum temperature of 105 °F was recorded at Waterbury, Connecticut but their state record is now 106 °F in 1995. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States)

1959: Two one-hundredths of an inch of rain was recorded ending a streak of 150 days with no measurable precipitation at Las Vegas, NV. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972: One person in Virginia was killed by lightning while playing softball. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

1986 - Hurricane Estelle passed 120 miles south of the Hawaiian Islands creating a ten to twenty foot surf. The large swells resulted from a combination of high tides, a full moon, and 50 mph winds. The hurricane also deluged Oahu Island with as much as 6.86 inches of rain on the 24th and 25th of the month. (Storm Data)

1987 - Barrow, AK, receives 1.38 inches in 24 hours on the 21st and 22nd, an all-time record for that location. The average annual precipitation for Barrow is just 4.75 inches. Thunderstorms in Montana produced 4 to 6 inches of rain in Glacier County causing extensive flooding along Divide Creek. Missoula, MT, received 1.71 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the month of July. (The National Weather Summary) (The Weather Channel)

1988 - Six cities in the south central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Pueblo, CO, with a reading of 48 degrees. Thunderstorms over the Atlantic Coast Region drenched Wilmington, NC, with 6.49 inches of rain in about eight hours. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms prevailed across the southeastern third of the country. Afternoon thunderstorms in Florida produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Zephyrhills, and gusts to 92 mph at Carrollwood and Lutz. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 69 mph at Crystal Lake damaged nineteen mobile homes. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1992: Lightning hit on or near a concrete mixing truck near Walla Walla, WA; a man was knocked off the truck. 10 minutes later a 2nd strike knocked him away from the truck again. He was fortunate he was only slightly hurt. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1993: The levee, holding back the flooding Mississippi River at Kaskaskia, Illinois, ruptures, forcing the town's people to flee on barges. The incident at Kaskaskia was the most dramatic event of the flood. At 9:48 a.m., the levee broke, leaving the people of Kaskaskia with no escape route other than two Army Corp of Engineers barges. By 2 p.m., the entire town was underwater.

 

1999: The Cedar River in Charles City, IA reached its all-time crest of an estimated 22.8 feet. Approximately 100 homes had flood damage in Charles City. Almost 12 inches of rain fell in a 48 hours period over these counties. Rainfall totals that day: New Hampton, IA: 7.10 inches (wettest day on record), Charles City, IA: 6.65 inches, West Union, IA: 4 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: "The Mid-South Derecho of 2003" States affected....AR, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC (Ref. For More Information)

2006: Palm Springs, California: Mercury soars to 121 °F. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2006: Widespread damaging winds, estimated around 90 mph, raked most of Jefferson County in south central Illinois. The city of Mt. Vernon was especially hard hit, where about 14% of all homes received at least minor damage. In Mt. Vernon, damage assessments indicated 1,107 homes were affected by some type of damage. 491 homes received minor damage such as roofs blown off, 152 received major damage, and 18 were destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2011: A low of 82 degrees Fahrenheit on the 22nd at Norfolk tied for the second highest minimum temperature ever recorded there. Also the highest temperature for 2011 was 103 °F at Norfolk and 102°F at Richmond both on July, 22nd. (Ref.NWS, Wakefield, Virginia - A Near Record High Minimum Temperature for Norfork)

[Brian5671]

37 minutes ago, FPizz said:

59 this morning.  I see there were a few record lows in New England. Nice.

San Francisco isn’t expected to hit 70°F again this July.

 

If that holds, it’ll tie the all-time record: just two days above 70°F in June and July, the fewest since records began in 1874

someone said once "the coldest winter I ever spent was summer in San Fran"

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, FPizz said:

59 this morning.  I see there were a few record lows in New England. Nice.

San Francisco isn’t expected to hit 70°F again this July.

 

If that holds, it’ll tie the all-time record: just two days above 70°F in June and July, the fewest since records began in 1874

I posted this the other day. Only a very small area around San Francisco has seen the cooler temperatures. Fits the recent theme of the cooler areas covering much less real estate against the record warmth in the Northern Hemisphere this summer.

 

 

[psv88]

62 this morning. So it looks like no 50s this July. A few 62s but that’s as long as it got 

[SACRUS]

 

14 years ago

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna43851978

[Stormlover74]

Going to miss these 60s and 70s for sure. Haven't seen 80 in over a week up here

[TheClimateChanger]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I posted this the other day. Only a very small area around San Francisco has seen the cooler temperatures. Fits the recent theme of the cooler areas covering much less real estate against the record warmth in the Northern Hemisphere this summer.

 

 

The trend doesn't lie. If anything, this is more like the typical conditions that would have been present when Mark Twain famously quipped that the coldest winter he had ever experienced was a summer in San Francisco. I am assuming the weird anomaly in the 1980s & 1990s is due to a defective HO-83 hygrothermometer installation? I know they had a lot of problems with those reading high.

[TheClimateChanger]

8 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The trend doesn't lie. If anything, this is more like the typical conditions that would have been present when Mark Twain famously quipped that the coldest winter he had ever experienced was a summer in San Francisco. I am assuming the weird anomaly in the 1980s & 1990s is due to a defective HO-83 hygrothermometer installation? I know they had a lot of problems with those reading high.

Also, highly questionable to call the Bay Area likely lived through their coldest summer on record. That's true only if your dataset begins in 2000. Prior to that date, these look like fairly typical temperatures. We can see between 1946 & 1982 (a period of 37 years), there were 19 years as cold or colder than this one at the airport. So this year has actually been above the median summer temperature for the mid to late 20th century. This looks more like typical engagement farming, hype-driven nonsense than an observation predicated on historical data. It's literally just summer.

San Francisco Airport

San Francisco Downtown

[nycwinter]

how often mid to late july in nyc you get a gusty northeast wind from high pressure in eastern canada felt very refreshing..

[TheClimateChanger]

With that said, I did note a stunning reversal from the high heat and humidity with Saranac Lake plunging all the way to 34F this morning. That reading ties the daily record low set in 1914.  The all-time record July monthly record low in the Saranac Lake threaded record is 29F, set on July 8, 1919. At the airport site, the all-time monthly record low is 32F, which has been set on more than one day, last on July 28, 2001.

The all-time observed record low for the month of July in the state of New York is 25F, which was set at Allegany State Park, in Cattaragus County, on July 8, 1963.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Clouds/storms look to limit heating on Saturday , if those are delayed or we have more clearing, then it very hot one.  Sunday looks mainly cloudy and / stormsy.

Friday is our hottest day and a chance of 100 even at the coast, Saturday still very hot but probably slightly *cooler*

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

With that said, I did note a stunning reversal from the high heat and humidity with Saranac Lake plunging all the way to 34F this morning. That reading ties the daily record low set in 1914.  The all-time record July monthly record low in the Saranac Lake threaded record is 29F, set on July 8, 1919. At the airport site, the all-time monthly record low is 32F, which has been set on more than one day, last on July 28, 2001.

The all-time observed record low for the month of July in the state of New York is 25F, which was set at Allegany State Park, in Cattaragus County, on July 8, 1963.

This is actually how summer is supposed to be, some extremely hot days and some below normal cooler days.  Also note that Central Park has no triple digit highs at all between July 24 and July 30, this Friday is a chance to break that.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 108 (2011)
NYC: 104 (2011)
LGA: 104 (2011)
JFK: 103 (2011)
Nw Bnswck: 102 (1980)


Lows:

EWR: 56 (1944)
NYC: 58 (1890)
LGA: 62 (1956)
JFK: 59 (1966)
New Bnswck: 51 (1944)


Historical:

 

1918 - A single bolt of lightning struck 504 sheep dead in their tracks at the Wasatch National Forest in Utah. Sheep often herd together in storms, and as a result the shock from the lightning bolt was passed from one animal to another. (David Ludlum)

 

1926: State maximum temperature record was set today at Troy, New York which was 108 °F. Also the maximum temperature of 105 °F was recorded at Waterbury, Connecticut but their state record is now 106 °F in 1995. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States)

1959: Two one-hundredths of an inch of rain was recorded ending a streak of 150 days with no measurable precipitation at Las Vegas, NV. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972: One person in Virginia was killed by lightning while playing softball. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

1986 - Hurricane Estelle passed 120 miles south of the Hawaiian Islands creating a ten to twenty foot surf. The large swells resulted from a combination of high tides, a full moon, and 50 mph winds. The hurricane also deluged Oahu Island with as much as 6.86 inches of rain on the 24th and 25th of the month. (Storm Data)

1987 - Barrow, AK, receives 1.38 inches in 24 hours on the 21st and 22nd, an all-time record for that location. The average annual precipitation for Barrow is just 4.75 inches. Thunderstorms in Montana produced 4 to 6 inches of rain in Glacier County causing extensive flooding along Divide Creek. Missoula, MT, received 1.71 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the month of July. (The National Weather Summary) (The Weather Channel)

1988 - Six cities in the south central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Pueblo, CO, with a reading of 48 degrees. Thunderstorms over the Atlantic Coast Region drenched Wilmington, NC, with 6.49 inches of rain in about eight hours. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms prevailed across the southeastern third of the country. Afternoon thunderstorms in Florida produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Zephyrhills, and gusts to 92 mph at Carrollwood and Lutz. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 69 mph at Crystal Lake damaged nineteen mobile homes. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1992: Lightning hit on or near a concrete mixing truck near Walla Walla, WA; a man was knocked off the truck. 10 minutes later a 2nd strike knocked him away from the truck again. He was fortunate he was only slightly hurt. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1993: The levee, holding back the flooding Mississippi River at Kaskaskia, Illinois, ruptures, forcing the town's people to flee on barges. The incident at Kaskaskia was the most dramatic event of the flood. At 9:48 a.m., the levee broke, leaving the people of Kaskaskia with no escape route other than two Army Corp of Engineers barges. By 2 p.m., the entire town was underwater.

 

1999: The Cedar River in Charles City, IA reached its all-time crest of an estimated 22.8 feet. Approximately 100 homes had flood damage in Charles City. Almost 12 inches of rain fell in a 48 hours period over these counties. Rainfall totals that day: New Hampton, IA: 7.10 inches (wettest day on record), Charles City, IA: 6.65 inches, West Union, IA: 4 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: "The Mid-South Derecho of 2003" States affected....AR, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC (Ref. For More Information)

2006: Palm Springs, California: Mercury soars to 121 °F. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2006: Widespread damaging winds, estimated around 90 mph, raked most of Jefferson County in south central Illinois. The city of Mt. Vernon was especially hard hit, where about 14% of all homes received at least minor damage. In Mt. Vernon, damage assessments indicated 1,107 homes were affected by some type of damage. 491 homes received minor damage such as roofs blown off, 152 received major damage, and 18 were destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2011: A low of 82 degrees Fahrenheit on the 22nd at Norfolk tied for the second highest minimum temperature ever recorded there. Also the highest temperature for 2011 was 103 °F at Norfolk and 102°F at Richmond both on July, 22nd. (Ref.NWS, Wakefield, Virginia - A Near Record High Minimum Temperature for Norfork)

1993: The levee, holding back the flooding Mississippi River at Kaskaskia, Illinois, ruptures, forcing the town's people to flee on barges. The incident at Kaskaskia was the most dramatic event of the flood. At 9:48 a.m., the levee broke, leaving the people of Kaskaskia with no escape route other than two Army Corp of Engineers barges. By 2 p.m., the entire town was underwater.

a historic summer in so many ways

 

2011: A low of 82 degrees Fahrenheit on the 22nd at Norfolk tied for the second highest minimum temperature ever recorded there. Also the highest temperature for 2011 was 103 °F at Norfolk and 102°F at Richmond both on July, 22nd. (Ref.NWS, Wakefield, Virginia - A Near Record High Minimum Temperature for Norfork)

 

one of our hottest days on record!

Highs:

EWR: 108 (2011)
NYC: 104 (2011)
LGA: 104 (2011)
JFK: 103 (2011)

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

59 this morning.  I see there were a few record lows in New England. Nice.

San Francisco isn’t expected to hit 70°F again this July.

 

If that holds, it’ll tie the all-time record: just two days above 70°F in June and July, the fewest since records began in 1874

and to think on this day in 2011 we had one of our all time hottest days ever.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 108 (2011)
NYC: 104 (2011)
LGA: 104 (2011)
JFK: 103 (2011)
Nw Bnswck: 102 (1980)


Lows:

EWR: 56 (1944)
NYC: 58 (1890)
LGA: 62 (1956)
JFK: 59 (1966)
New Bnswck: 51 (1944)


Historical:

 

1918 - A single bolt of lightning struck 504 sheep dead in their tracks at the Wasatch National Forest in Utah. Sheep often herd together in storms, and as a result the shock from the lightning bolt was passed from one animal to another. (David Ludlum)

 

1926: State maximum temperature record was set today at Troy, New York which was 108 °F. Also the maximum temperature of 105 °F was recorded at Waterbury, Connecticut but their state record is now 106 °F in 1995. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States)

1959: Two one-hundredths of an inch of rain was recorded ending a streak of 150 days with no measurable precipitation at Las Vegas, NV. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972: One person in Virginia was killed by lightning while playing softball. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

1986 - Hurricane Estelle passed 120 miles south of the Hawaiian Islands creating a ten to twenty foot surf. The large swells resulted from a combination of high tides, a full moon, and 50 mph winds. The hurricane also deluged Oahu Island with as much as 6.86 inches of rain on the 24th and 25th of the month. (Storm Data)

1987 - Barrow, AK, receives 1.38 inches in 24 hours on the 21st and 22nd, an all-time record for that location. The average annual precipitation for Barrow is just 4.75 inches. Thunderstorms in Montana produced 4 to 6 inches of rain in Glacier County causing extensive flooding along Divide Creek. Missoula, MT, received 1.71 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the month of July. (The National Weather Summary) (The Weather Channel)

1988 - Six cities in the south central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Pueblo, CO, with a reading of 48 degrees. Thunderstorms over the Atlantic Coast Region drenched Wilmington, NC, with 6.49 inches of rain in about eight hours. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms prevailed across the southeastern third of the country. Afternoon thunderstorms in Florida produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Zephyrhills, and gusts to 92 mph at Carrollwood and Lutz. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 69 mph at Crystal Lake damaged nineteen mobile homes. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1992: Lightning hit on or near a concrete mixing truck near Walla Walla, WA; a man was knocked off the truck. 10 minutes later a 2nd strike knocked him away from the truck again. He was fortunate he was only slightly hurt. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1993: The levee, holding back the flooding Mississippi River at Kaskaskia, Illinois, ruptures, forcing the town's people to flee on barges. The incident at Kaskaskia was the most dramatic event of the flood. At 9:48 a.m., the levee broke, leaving the people of Kaskaskia with no escape route other than two Army Corp of Engineers barges. By 2 p.m., the entire town was underwater.

 

1999: The Cedar River in Charles City, IA reached its all-time crest of an estimated 22.8 feet. Approximately 100 homes had flood damage in Charles City. Almost 12 inches of rain fell in a 48 hours period over these counties. Rainfall totals that day: New Hampton, IA: 7.10 inches (wettest day on record), Charles City, IA: 6.65 inches, West Union, IA: 4 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: "The Mid-South Derecho of 2003" States affected....AR, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC (Ref. For More Information)

2006: Palm Springs, California: Mercury soars to 121 °F. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2006: Widespread damaging winds, estimated around 90 mph, raked most of Jefferson County in south central Illinois. The city of Mt. Vernon was especially hard hit, where about 14% of all homes received at least minor damage. In Mt. Vernon, damage assessments indicated 1,107 homes were affected by some type of damage. 491 homes received minor damage such as roofs blown off, 152 received major damage, and 18 were destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2011: A low of 82 degrees Fahrenheit on the 22nd at Norfolk tied for the second highest minimum temperature ever recorded there. Also the highest temperature for 2011 was 103 °F at Norfolk and 102°F at Richmond both on July, 22nd. (Ref.NWS, Wakefield, Virginia - A Near Record High Minimum Temperature for Norfork)

Nw Bnswck: 102 (1980)


Lows:

EWR: 56 (1944)
NYC: 58 (1890)
LGA: 62 (1956)
JFK: 59 (1966)
New Bnswck: 51 (1944)

 

Nice to see a record from 1980, I assume, NYC's record before 2011 was from 1980 on this date?

Note how 1944, 1966, two of our previous hottest summers, were on a cool break on this date.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/19/2025 at 7:41 AM, bluewave said:

The WAA actually peaked around 8-10 pm for the day with +20°C 850s arriving late. So we got that combined with downsloping and drying. It allowed the earlier low max at ISP to hold at 79°. That was the 3rd warmest low max ever at ISP.

Warmest Low Maximum Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1999	81
2	2006	80
3	2025	79
-	2019	79
-	2013	79

 

Chris, we had a late high of 90 here at 4:04 pm yesterday also under partly cloudy skies.

And then we had an unexpected heavy rain shower around 9 pm last night, a frontal passage?

 

[LibertyBell]

I thought it was supposed to be mostly sunny today

[LibertyBell]

On 7/19/2025 at 6:54 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Secondary heat peak latter next week looks likely. If models continue to ramp up the ridging then more 100+ isn't out of the question 

Lucky, where you live it's much more likely, NJ gets like 2-3 or more 100 degree temperatures almost every summer. A completely different climate compared to here =\

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/18/2025 at 5:51 PM, Sundog said:

Just keep the high dewpoints away. They make everything far more miserable than high heat does. 

I can't stand sauna weather either.  Today is such a nice respite.

[SACRUS]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought it was supposed to be mostly sunny today

 

Woulnt buy the mostly clear on a day winds go a bit onshore(ish)  Still looks clearer

 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Friday is our hottest day and a chance of 100 even at the coast, Saturday still very hot but probably slightly *cooler*

Pretty strong Ambrose Jet on Friday keeping the LI temps down compared to NJ especially South Shore.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty strong Ambrose Jet on Friday keeping the LI temps down compared to NJ especially South Shore.

 

how do we get an Ambrose Jet in late July? I thought those things only happen in April and May when the water temperature is 60 degrees?

My point and click says a high of 92 here.

 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty strong Ambrose Jet on Friday keeping the LI temps down compared to NJ especially South Shore.

 

Temperature difference between NJ and Long Island. So it’s unlikely JFK sees 100° on Friday. Saturday will have a frontal passage to deal with. So more clouds and convection chances again for the weekend. South Shore beaches could see strong rip currents  and 30+ mph SSW gusts Friday.

 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Temperature difference between NJ and Long Island. So it’s unlikely JFK sees 100° on Friday. Saturday will have a frontal passage to deal with. So more clouds and convection chances again for the weekend. South Shore beaches could see strong rip currents  and 30+ mph SSW gusts Friday.

 

So this is one of our more mediocre heat ups that does not involve Long Island- it's like a coastal hugger where it snows in NJ and rains on LI.

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Woulnt buy the mostly clear on a day winds go a bit onshore(ish)  Still looks clearer

 

when is the next time we actually see a sunny day, Tony?

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

75 / 53 dew points dropping

we had unexpected heavy rain here last night for about 30 minutes or so.

[weathermedic]

Storms now right along the southern NJ coast and off shore moving south.