kdxken Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Just now, CoastalWx said: I bet it's fine in most areas. Don't look at the gfs. I'll hold you to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 4 minutes ago, kdxken said: I'll hold you to it. Them too. "but the ensembles do show probs of 0.5", the GEFS at 40-60%, ENS does not show this, but has even lower probabilites of 0.1" at 20-40%, while the CMC has 10-30% of 0.5" and +70% of 0.1". Something to watch, though the better forcing does look to be in northern New England.Don`t go canceling any outdoor events just yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago There could be some morning stuff before 9a, but I think bulk of day is ok. Might not be totally sunny, but if progs show 80+, they'll be some sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I bet it's fine in most areas. Don't look at the gfs. GFS is wildly more pessimistic than the Euro for Saturday, mid day. Pick 'em I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago On 6/22/2025 at 4:38 PM, ineedsnow said: I'm guessing you haven't looked at any of the 12z stuff yet.. Euro is 58 at 2pm Saturday GFS 60 CMC 68 looks mostly average or slightly below after Wednesday for awhile.. Tip of the cap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Euro for 18z Saturday GFS ... We all know that the GFS is climatologically more sound than the Euro, particularly when considering the 24 to 36 hours prior to this 18z layout above. Today's slab of Canadian polar air getting nice and jammed into the region does not typically displace by merely weak warm front momentum/kinematics - in acknowledgement of both theory and practic, the Euro is out to lunch. on the flip side ... The Euro is seldom wrong this close. It's an interesting little test here. .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, kdxken said: Tip of the cap. More like tip of the weenie. It's not avg to slight below for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Euro for 18z Saturday GFS ... We all know that the GFS is climatologically more sound than the Euro, particularly when considering the 24 to 36 hours prior to this 18z layout above. Today's slab of Canadian polar air getting nice and jammed into the region does not typically displace by merely weak warm front momentum/kinematics - in acknowledgement of both theory and practic, the Euro is out to lunch. on the flip side ... The Euro is seldom wrong this close. I'll toss the GFS, it's a POS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Skynet Euro looks like the op too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Gfs on an island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: More like tip of the weenie. It's not avg to slight below for awhile. Today, tomorrow,Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Skynet Euro looks like the op too. I have seen maybe 3 times spanning decades worth of years ...whence the warm solutions won out over BD air mass lay-ins, and they were all in the last 10 years. I don't recall specific dates, but there was one where all the models even the day before, had moderately well defined BD boundary replete with the whole 2-meter large T correction punching SW clear to NYC by mid day. 3pm rolls around it was still 88 in Nashua NH. I was looking at the satellite, and there was no impression that boundary even existed anyway but there was a drape mid way up the Maine shore. I think with models being much better, I have noticed that the improvement kind of makes them over-sensitive too? - you know, 20 years ago, the models were never aggressive enough with these things. Something like that. I'm wondering if this one of those situations with the GFS just ending up too aggressive. See ...even a crushingly mundane weather synopsis, there's something to be excruciating about hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 minutes ago, kdxken said: Today, tomorrow,Saturday. Sat AN is my guess. So 2 days. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I have seen maybe 3 times spanning decades worth of years ...whence the warm solutions won out over BD air mass lay-ins, and they were all in the last 10 years. I don't recall specific dates, but there was one where all the models even the day before, had moderately well defined BD boundary replete with the whole 2-meter large T correction punching SW clear to NYC by mid day. 3pm rolls around at was still 88 in Nashua NH. I was look at the satellite, and there was no impression that boundary even existed. It was recently too - like in the last 10 years. I think with models being much better, I have noticed that the improvement kind of makes them over-sensitive too? - you know, 20 years ago, the models were never aggressive enough with these things. Something like that. I'm wondering if this one of those situations with the GFS just ending up too aggressive. See ...even a crushingly mundane weather synopsis, there's something to be excruciating about hahaha IMO Euro is usually better than the GFS for damming. I'm wondering if it's more synoptics that's an issue. If I'm wrong so be it, but I feel like GFS is too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: IMO Euro is usually better than the GFS for damming. I'm wondering if it's more synoptics that's an issue. If I'm wrong so be it, but I feel like GFS is too far south. OH I'm on fence. I'm just trying to objectively lay out the differences. I did look at the 06z GFS and it trended N - that could be an early capitulation. we'll see. The NAM fwiw was Ner than it's previous 00z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There could be some morning stuff before 9a, but I think bulk of day is ok. Might not be totally sunny, but if progs show 80+, they'll be some sun. Had a decent rain here that's just letting up, need the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sat AN is my guess. So 2 days. Meh. Maybe a tick on Saturday if we get lucky. Maybe in Dittyland. Average temperature has gotta be 80 or above by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: OH I'm on fence. I'm just trying to objectively lay out the differences. I did look at the 06z GFS and it trended N - that could be an early capitulation. we'll see. The NAM fwiw was Ner than it's previous 00z run... I hear ya. I’ve been disgusted with the gfs lately. It was so bad for last weekend into Monday. Even 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I hear ya. I’ve been disgusted with the gfs lately. It was so bad for last weekend into Monday. Even 48 hours out. Ha...You gotta understand ... I grew up in the 1980s and 1990s modeling arrogance - which means ...I was left heartbroken more than not. That steady abuse of being gaslit by model solutions convincing us of a reality that would only prove fantasy, turned me into an neg nazi when it comes to situations where in one hand, it's what I want, and in the other, it's the looming reality that god is an asshole. There's not a lot of evidence defending the latter, so ...we pick the model solution that best aligns with that principle and we'll always score remarkably well. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Doesn't Kevin live close to that Vernon ... Rockville area of CT ... where it is presently 62/57 priceless - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 66 here with a NE breeze AC is off and windows are open-feels great! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I bet it's fine in most areas. Don't look at the gfs. Noted for winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 67.1/48.9°F, So refreshing. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago GYX precip map has us at 1.5-2", though the AFD is only 0.75-1.25". Either one would be welcomed, as we've had only 1/2" in the past 2.5 weeks and my current limited movement prevents watering. Forecast high for Saturday is 58, cool but nothing special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I'll toss the GFS, it's a POS. You mean i won’t be 53 on June 28? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Tuesday could be a fun day...start of NHL free agency and maybe some strong storms! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Only 69 as we close in on 10:30. Tuesday seems like months ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Getting some sunny breaks . Turning into decent day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Actually I wonder if Berkshire County could get some strong storms late Sat afternoon or early evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Getting some sunny breaks . Turning into decent day Yeah who's going to complain about temps in the '60s and '70s. Perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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