June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The water on the south shore is currently close to 60 degrees. 

Either way, whatever the high temperature is, it's going to be seen as a referendum on the effects of climate change on our area in terms of summertime high temperatures. Let's see how much climate change has really affected our high temperatures in the summer.  JFK hit 99 on May 29, 1969 and 98 on June 19, 1994.  Let's see if CC has made enough of a difference to beat those records, sea breeze or not.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Yea I can recall many times in the past where it's 90+ degrees with a southerly wind off the water in June, and that's in modest heat waves

Yes, we live in a continental climate, the influence of the ocean is limited and in such a situation comes in only after the high temperature has already been reached.

[Sundog]

25 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Yea I can recall many times in the past where it's 90+ degrees with a southerly wind off the water in June, and that's in modest heat waves

That means pretty much every model is overdoing the seabreeze which is something that globals I would think would have a problem picking up properly to begin with. 

So if they're all showing an ocean wind cooling everyone off you'd think they'd be on to something. 

[SACRUS]

 

Ended on a partly cloudy note Gorgeous day

 

Clouds and some showers storms back in PA look to fizzle out, but some clouds overnight and into the morning perhaps

 

[SACRUS]

 

All look to dry up beyoond CPA

 

[TWCCraig]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

That means pretty much every model is overdoing the seabreeze which is something that globals I would think would have a problem picking up properly to begin with. 

So if they're all showing an ocean wind cooling everyone off you'd think they'd be on to something. 

The NAM always overdoes the seabreeze, I would never use that. Also, as someone who lives out here, I never use raw numbers off of a global model for temps especially this time of year, you'll never be right. You think today's Euro was correct with today's forecast out here? Today's 12z Euro had a high of 79 for Shirley and 80 for ISP for today, Shirley hit 84 and ISP hit 85 officially. Today's 18z GFS never had Westhampton over 80, all wrong. GFS doesn't even have the resolution to "see" Westhampton properly if you're looking at maps

I prefer to use hi-res models in the short term, you get a much better idea of the kind of temperature gradient to expect and wind direction. I love the GEM-LAM (HRDPS) for this although it can be a little too warm sometimes. HRRR isn't bad either, but the NAM is way too cool most of the time.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

That means pretty much every model is overdoing the seabreeze which is something that globals I would think would have a problem picking up properly to begin with. 

So if they're all showing an ocean wind cooling everyone off you'd think they'd be on to something. 

its just like they overdo the rain/snow line and show Long Island getting 0 snow lol

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

The NAM always overdoes the seabreeze, I would never use that. Also, as someone who lives out here, I never use raw numbers off of a global model for temps especially this time of year, you'll never be right. You think today's Euro was correct with today's forecast out here? Today's 12z Euro had a high of 79 for Shirley and 80 for ISP for today, Shirley hit 84 and ISP hit 85 officially. Today's 18z GFS never had Westhampton over 80, all wrong. GFS doesn't even have the resolution to "see" Westhampton properly if you're looking at maps

I prefer to use hi-res models in the short term, you get a much better idea of the kind of temperature gradient to expect and wind direction. I love the GEM-LAM (HRDPS) for this although it can be a little too warm sometimes. HRRR isn't bad either, but the NAM is way too cool most of the time.

They didn't have Montauk hitting 80 on a SW wind either a few weeks ago and yet it happened.

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 87
ISP: 86
JFK: 86
PHL: 86
ACY: 86
LGA: 85
TEB: 85
New Brnswck: 84
BLM: 84
TTN: 83

NYC: 82

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 87
ISP: 86
JFK: 86
PHL: 86
ACY: 86
LGA: 85
TEB: 85
New Brnswck: 84
BLM: 84
TTN: 83

NYC: 82

86 here just one off EWR, nice.

I expect the same thing at least for the peak heat day next week on Tuesday.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 87
ISP: 86
JFK: 86
PHL: 86
ACY: 86
LGA: 85
TEB: 85
New Brnswck: 84
BLM: 84
TTN: 83

NYC: 82

note how JFK is hotter than either LGA or NYC on an offshore wind.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 87
ISP: 86
JFK: 86
PHL: 86
ACY: 86
LGA: 85
TEB: 85
New Brnswck: 84
BLM: 84
TTN: 83

NYC: 82

Tony, what's the earliest JFK has hit 100? I know they've hit 100 multiple times in my life on or just after July 4th.

July 4, 2010 101 degrees (hotter than either NYC or LGA)

July 5, 1999 102 degrees

 

[Sundog]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 87
ISP: 86
JFK: 86
PHL: 86
ACY: 86
LGA: 85
TEB: 85
New Brnswck: 84
BLM: 84
TTN: 83

NYC: 82

That 82 is sickening

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

That 82 is sickening

I thought you like cooler temps

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

That 82 is sickening

Incidentally it would have been 90 here with more sunshine.

[SACRUS]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony, what's the earliest JFK has hit 100? I know they've hit 100 multiple times in my life on or just after July 4th.

July 4, 2010 101 degrees (hotter than either NYC or LGA)

July 5, 1999 102 degrees

 

 

102 July 1, 1963 all others were 99 in June

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought you like cooler temps

I love cooler temps, not if they're fake though 

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony, what's the earliest JFK has hit 100? I know they've hit 100 multiple times in my life on or just after July 4th.

July 4, 2010 101 degrees (hotter than either NYC or LGA)

July 5, 1999 102 degrees

 

July 1, 1963 (102).

[SACRUS]

 

79 / 59 a gorgeous summer evening.

[Wannabehippie]

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

18z NAM has a seabreeze for Monday as well. But it gets close to 100 before it drops us into the 80s and 70s east of the city. 

How much of a sea breeze will there be in places like Long Branch NJ on Monday?

 

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

How much of a sea breeze will there be in places like Long Branch NJ on Monday?

 

That's one of the hottest parts of the NJ coast on the 18z NAM at 5PM Monday. This is fickle though so I'm sure it will change:

[FPizz]

Beautiful day.  84, Sun, and pool.  

Trenton is usually hot, so it being 1 degree warmer than nyc, who cares? Plenty of stations all around today were 82. 

[donsutherland1]

While New York City waits for the onset of potentially extreme heat, New York City tied the June monthly record for smallest daily temperature range on June 9. The temperature range was just 2° (high: 64°; low: 62°).

That tied the June record that was set on June 8, 1869 and tied on June 11, 1910, June 8, 1916, June 20, 1958, and June 17, 1978. June 17, 1978 also had an identical 64°-62° daily range.

[donsutherland1]

On 6/19/2025 at 8:49 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The operational ECMWF and GFS are now in good agreement that daily record temperatures will likely be challenged or broken during June 23-24 across the New York City region. June monthly records could be challenged, as well.

EFI for June 23:

EFI for June 24:

Select Data:

Expanded lists of June record high maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures for the New York City area are below:

[psv88]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Beautiful day.  84, Sun, and pool.  

Trenton is usually hot, so it being 1 degree warmer than nyc, who cares? Plenty of stations all around today were 82. 

This is not correct. No other stations were 82. Sacrus posted the numbers. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Either way, whatever the high temperature is, it's going to be seen as a referendum on the effects of climate change on our area in terms of summertime high temperatures. Let's see how much climate change has really affected our high temperatures in the summer.  JFK hit 99 on May 29, 1969 and 98 on June 19, 1994.  Let's see if CC has made enough of a difference to beat those records, sea breeze or not.

 

As a strong believer in climate change and global warming I think this is ridiculous and outrageous. There have been heatwaves going way back. By allowing yourself to rate climate change according to the weather on a day or two you are promoting the ability of deniers to come back when it snows or is cold for a day or two and say, "see there's no climate change". It's absurd and it is NOT what climate change is. It is far bigger and based on statistics globally over 100s of years. It is not a hot day or a snowstorm.

WX/PT

[psv88]

16 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

As a strong believer in climate change and global warming I think this is ridiculous and outrageous. There have been heatwaves going way back. By allowing yourself to rate climate change according to the weather on a day or two you are promoting the ability of deniers to come back when it snows or is cold for a day or two and say, "see there's no climate change". It's absurd and it is NOT what climate change is. It is far bigger and based on statistics globally over 100s of years. It is not a hot day or a snowstorm.

WX/PT

Liberty gonna Liberty

[qg_omega]

25 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

As a strong believer in climate change and global warming I think this is ridiculous and outrageous. There have been heatwaves going way back. By allowing yourself to rate climate change according to the weather on a day or two you are promoting the ability of deniers to come back when it snows or is cold for a day or two and say, "see there's no climate change". It's absurd and it is NOT what climate change is. It is far bigger and based on statistics globally over 100s of years. It is not a hot day or a snowstorm.

WX/PT

99 percent of Liberty’s posts are insane and ridiculous

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

As a strong believer in climate change and global warming I think this is ridiculous and outrageous. There have been heatwaves going way back. By allowing yourself to rate climate change according to the weather on a day or two you are promoting the ability of deniers to come back when it snows or is cold for a day or two and say, "see there's no climate change". It's absurd and it is NOT what climate change is. It is far bigger and based on statistics globally over 100s of years. It is not a hot day or a snowstorm.

WX/PT

Where climate change is a factor is in the strength and staying power of the ridge. If we hit 600dm that likely is directly attributable to CC. We can break that record and still not break temp records. JFK needs a wind vector of WNW to NW, for a daily record. The Park needs surrounding stations to be 105 to hit 100. So lots of little intricacies on a local level. 

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

99 percent of Liberty’s posts are insane and ridiculous

Also missed the point that the warming has become sustained and prolonged even if max temps don't pass previous highs. 

That's a far bigger CC indicator than how hot it gets. However even with that, we may just challenge that too. 

Because once we surpass previous baselines, it becomes much easier to hit new all time records.