Sundog Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 3 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: Yea that's why you can't take the numbers at face value out here. Globals aren't like the higher resolution models. The GFS thinks JFK is in the ocean. JFK should at least be in the 90's there To be fair the higher resolution models are much cooler than the inferno Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 2 minutes ago, Sundog said: Can you post 5PM map? Still has 100 for NYC at 5pm, cools off fast though after this. I don't know if I buy the 74 at East Hampton lol, that realistically would be more like 76-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 4 minutes ago, Sundog said: To be fair the higher resolution models are much cooler than the inferno Euro. I think the Euro is too hot for places like the city and inland. RGEM has 98 for Monday in NYC, don't think NYC will see 100 Monday. Mid to upper 90's likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 7 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: I think the Euro is too hot for places like the city and inland. RGEM has 98 for Monday in NYC, don't think NYC will see 100 Monday. Mid to upper 90's likely 93 I would say CPK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 13 minutes ago, Sundog said: To be fair the higher resolution models are much cooler than the inferno Euro. Rather than any model I would much rather rely on climate knowledge and what has happened in the past here. Let the past be your guide to the future as the saying goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 10 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: I think the Euro is too hot for places like the city and inland. RGEM has 98 for Monday in NYC, don't think NYC will see 100 Monday. Mid to upper 90's likely 100 for all us likely on Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 19 minutes ago, Sundog said: Euro is still 105 for Tuesday, the only model that hot. 100 likely, 105 not likely, you don't get that kind of heat in June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 27 minutes ago, Sundog said: To be fair the higher resolution models are much cooler than the inferno Euro. Sorry to say this about models, but they aren't very smart Look at this from a climate history perspective. June 26, 1952 at JFK -- 99 degrees on a SSW wind at 13 mph!! and it's hard to believe it did not hit 100 at JFK in between hours on this date, when it was 99 on a SSW wind and then the wind switched to WSW and it was 99 for two more hours..... https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1952-6-26 12:00 PM 94 °F 75 °F 54 % SW 18 mph 0 mph 29.78 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 1:00 PM 95 °F 74 °F 50 % SW 17 mph 0 mph 29.76 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 2:00 PM 98 °F 73 °F 44 % SW 15 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 3:00 PM 99 °F 72 °F 42 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 4:00 PM 92 °F 73 °F 54 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Fair 5:00 PM 99 °F 68 °F 36 % WSW 20 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 6:00 PM 99 °F 69 °F 38 % WSW 15 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 7:00 PM 94 °F 74 °F 52 % SW 12 mph 0 mph 29.74 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 32 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: Yea that's why you can't take the numbers at face value out here. Globals aren't like the higher resolution models. The GFS thinks JFK is in the ocean. JFK should at least be in the 90's there Did you see this that I just posted lol Sorry to say this about models, but they aren't very smart Look at this from a climate history perspective. June 26, 1952 at JFK -- 99 degrees on a SSW wind at 13 mph!! and it's hard to believe it did not hit 100 at JFK in between hours on this date, when it was 99 on a SSW wind and then the wind switched to WSW and it was 99 for two more hours..... https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1952-6-26 12:00 PM 94 °F 75 °F 54 % SW 18 mph 0 mph 29.78 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 1:00 PM 95 °F 74 °F 50 % SW 17 mph 0 mph 29.76 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 2:00 PM 98 °F 73 °F 44 % SW 15 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 3:00 PM 99 °F 72 °F 42 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 4:00 PM 92 °F 73 °F 54 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Fair 5:00 PM 99 °F 68 °F 36 % WSW 20 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 6:00 PM 99 °F 69 °F 38 % WSW 15 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 7:00 PM 94 °F 74 °F 52 % SW 12 mph 0 mph 29.74 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 Just now, LibertyBell said: Did you see this that I just posted lol Sorry to say this about models, but they aren't very smart Look at this from a climate history perspective. June 26, 1952 at JFK -- 99 degrees on a SSW wind at 13 mph!! https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1952-6-26 12:00 PM 94 °F 75 °F 54 % SW 18 mph 0 mph 29.78 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 1:00 PM 95 °F 74 °F 50 % SW 17 mph 0 mph 29.76 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 2:00 PM 98 °F 73 °F 44 % SW 15 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 3:00 PM 99 °F 72 °F 42 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 4:00 PM 92 °F 73 °F 54 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Fair 5:00 PM 99 °F 68 °F 36 % WSW 20 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 6:00 PM 99 °F 69 °F 38 % WSW 15 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 7:00 PM 94 °F 74 °F 52 % SW 12 mph 0 mph 29.74 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy on a side note, I can't believe it didn't hit 100 at JFK on this date when it was 99 on a SSW wind and then the wind switched to WSW and it was 99 for two more hours one would think that JFK hit 100 in between hours..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 We just hit 90 here at 2:30 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 2PM EWR: 89 PHL: 89 JFK: 89 New Brnswck: 88 BLM: 87 LGA: 87 TTN: 87 JFK: 86 TEB: 86 JFK: 86 NYC: 85 ISP: 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 14 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 2PM EWR: 89 PHL: 89 JFK: 89 New Brnswck: 88 BLM: 87 LGA: 87 TTN: 87 JFK: 86 TEB: 86 JFK: 86 NYC: 85 ISP: 84 90 here at 2:30 perhaps JFK gets it in between hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 15 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 2PM EWR: 89 PHL: 89 JFK: 89 New Brnswck: 88 BLM: 87 LGA: 87 TTN: 87 JFK: 86 TEB: 86 JFK: 86 NYC: 85 ISP: 84 wait you have JFK listed twice Tony, actually three times but only with two different temperatures lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 I think somebody in the area has a shot at their first June 105° reading on Tuesday since this will be a 3 day heat build. The Euro was correct with the low 90s today as the GFS only had upper 80s. The heat away from the local sea breezes will begin ramping up tomorrow and build higher each day. My guess is that the best shot for 105° will be around Newark and Corona, Queens Tuesday. Maybe even an area we don’t expect further east into Nassau or NW Suffolk where the best compressional warming occurs right along the sea breeze front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think somebody in the area has a shot at their first June 105° reading on Tuesday since this will be a 3 day heat build. The Euro was correct with the low 90s today as the GFS only had upper 80s. The heat away from the local sea breezes will begin ramping up tomorrow and build higher each day. My guess is that the best shot for 105° will be around Newark and Corona, Queens Tuesday. Maybe even an area we don’t expect further east into Nassau or NW Suffolk where the best compressional warming occurs right along the sea breeze front. it was 90 here at 2:30 pm and then the sea breeze came in here around 3 pm and knocked temperatures down 4 degrees. the temperature spike occurs right before the sea breeze comes in sounds a lot like the heaviest snow / largest snowflakes occurring right before the changeover hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think somebody in the area has a shot at their first June 105° reading on Tuesday since this will be a 3 day heat build. The Euro was correct with the low 90s today as the GFS only had upper 80s. The heat away from the local sea breezes will begin ramping up tomorrow and build higher each day. My guess is that the best shot for 105° will be around Newark and Corona, Queens Tuesday. Maybe even an area we don’t expect further east into Nassau or NW Suffolk where the best compressional warming occurs right along the sea breeze front. I'm thinking the seabreeze on Monday afternoon knocks down the heat building effects. We are not going to see 90 degrees at 2AM early Tuesday morning like models were showing several days ago. No doubt if the Euro is right though Tuesday will be very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 1 minute ago, Sundog said: I'm thinking the seabreeze on Monday afternoon knocks down the heat building effects. We are not going to see 90 degrees at 2AM early Tuesday morning like models were showing several days ago. No doubt if the Euro is right though Tuesday will be very bad. not *very bad* but a time to celebrate a once a decade occurrence! you should be a fan of weather extremes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: not *very bad* but a time to celebrate a once a decade occurrence! you should be a fan of weather extremes! If I knew for a fact their wouldn't be any power issues I would care if it got very hot every once in awhile. That's were my biggest concern lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 1 minute ago, Sundog said: If I knew for a fact their wouldn't be any power issues I would care if it got very hot every once in awhile. That's were my biggest concern lies. it should be okay for 1 day, this is a fairly short heatwave. Con Ed really sucks though so you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 Up to 91 here for a high now at 88 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 88.5, gorgeous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 It's 91 here right now. Doesn't feel too bad out there with dewpoints in the low 60s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It's 91 here right now. Doesn't feel too bad out there with dewpoints in the low 60s. Im heading to piscataway now. Ill see if I can feel the 2° difference lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 5 minutes ago, FPizz said: Im heading to piscataway now. Ill see if I can feel the 2° difference lol LOL. Yeah my location a little west of NYC is always one of the warm spots. We hit 92 a little while ago. Have a good time in Piscataway tonight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: LOL. Yeah my location a little west of NYC is always one of the warm spots. We hit 92 a little while ago. Have a good time in Piscataway tonight! Thanks. I grew up there and moved away only 9 years ago. Im still there often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: LOL. Yeah my location a little west of NYC is always one of the warm spots. We hit 92 a little while ago. Have a good time in Piscataway tonight! you probably get a lot more snow than NYC too lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 moosonee canada south of hudson bay will be in the 50's on tuesday.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 87.7 & 87.4 for the high temp at my stations today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 21, 2025 Share Posted June 21, 2025 A sustained period of above normal temperatures is now underway. Excessive heat will overspread the region tomorrow with the mercury soaring into the 90s across the region. Extreme heat is likely Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. The ECMWF and GFS continue to show potential June monthly record heat for parts of the region. June Monthly Records: Bridgeport: 97°, June 9, 2008 Islip: 96°, June 24, 1966 and June 19, 1994 New York City-Central Park: 101°, June 29, 1934 and June 27, 1966 New York City-JFK Airport: 99°, June 29, 1949, June 26, 1952, June 30, 1964 New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 101°, June 26, 1952 and June 13, 2017 Newark: 103°, June 27, 1952 June 26, 1952 is currently the hottest June day on record in and around the New York City area. Out of the five stations from the above list that were operating in 1952, three reached or exceeded 100° on June 26, 1952 (Central Park: 100°, LaGuardia Airport: 101°, and Newark: 102°). All five reached 95° or above. Two stations also saw 80° or above lows: Central Park: 81° and LaGuardia Airport: 84°. Both the number of 100° highs and 80° lows is the highest on record for June for this five-station area. For June 26, 1952, the five-station average high was 99.4°, the average low was 78.2°, and the mean was 88.4°. The average high and mean are the highest on record for June. The average low is the second highest on record for June. June 21, 2012 was the second hottest day, overall, in this region. Its average high was 96.8°. Its average low was 78.4°. Its mean was 87.6°. That average low was the highest on record for June. The average high and mean were the second highest for June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +2.11 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.206 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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