Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,213
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

Winter 2025-26


Ji
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, IronTy said:

JD has a new posting about SSTs and.implications for winter:

 

His summary so far:

 

"Looking at years with a La Nada to weak La Nina, east QBO, negative PDO, negative MEI, positive AMO and declining solar, winter temperatures are cold."

Pictures from preliminary WB Joe D'Aleo analysis;  hope it's right!!!!  I like the strategy of rooting for cold air and then see if we can time a low to move in while it's established.   Note also WB is still watching the above normal water in the North Pacific to see what role (if it holds) it could play this winter.

IMG_6175.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I can buy some good cold shots this winter a lot more than I buy AN snowfall. Feels like cold+dry/warm+wet taken to 11.

If those SST'S remain pretty much as are around Newfoundland and those in the GOA warm a bit we could be looking at both. 50-50 Lows should be more prevalent. +TNH Pattern possible with the NPAC SST Profile. Let's not forget the QBO as well. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Pictures from preliminary WB Joe D'Aleo analysis;  hope it's right!!!!  I like the strategy of rooting for cold air and then see if we can time a low to move in while it's established.   Note also WB is still watching the above normal water in the North Pacific to see what role (if it holds) it could play this winter.

IMG_6175.png

Being on the eastern flank of the BN temps with the Atlantic to our east looks pretty palatable to these weenie eyes.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

New Cansips is out. Looks like it's August forecast with D-F temps at or ever so slightly AN. It may be a hair warmer than last month the further south you go. Does look dry as it did last month. Until we shake the Niña, or Niña like features equatorially, we stay on the dry side.

Fwiw, it does have a Niño developing next summer. 

cansips_T2maMean_month_us_4.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

New Cansips is out. Looks like it's August forecast with D-F temps at or ever so slightly AN. It may be a hair warmer than last month the further south you go. Does look dry as it did last month. Until we shake the Niña, or Niña like features equatorially, we stay on the dry side.

Fwiw, it does have a Niño developing next summer. 

cansips_T2maMean_month_us_4.png

Last year's 9/1 forecast for 12/24-2/25 very similar. 

cansips_T2maMean_month_us_4 (1).png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I can buy some good cold shots this winter a lot more than I buy AN snowfall. Feels like cold+dry/warm+wet taken to 11.

100%. All signs point towards a predictable Nina'ish winter. There's almost always a wildcard in the general base state that surprises long rangers though. I don't have any real thoughts there. Optimist wag would be anomalous amplification of the epo ridge and downstream troughing in the east. Pessimist wag would be poor alignment in the NE pac causing a propensity to ridge in the east and a predominant storm track NW of us. 

I do think the AO will be half decent for the balance of met winter. Gut feelin the flip in the longer term phase bias cycle. Maybe the nao actually does something too. Kinda hand and hand there with decent Nina's. Without north Atlantic help, Northern stream stuff likes to avoid the MA. Especially further south like where i am lol

  • Like 4
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

100%. All signs point towards a predictable Nina'ish winter. There's almost always a wildcard in the general base state that surprises long rangers though. I don't have any real thoughts there. Optimist wag would be anomalous amplification of the epo ridge and downstream troughing in the east. Pessimist wag would be poor alignment in the NE pac causing a propensity to ridge in the east and a predominant storm track NW of us. 

I do think the AO will be half decent for the balance of met winter. Gut feelin the flip in the longer term phase bias cycle. Maybe the nao actually does something too. Kinda hand and hand there with decent Nina's. Without north Atlantic help, Northern stream stuff likes to avoid the MA. Especially further south like where i am lol

I think if you liked last year, you'll like this year and vice-versa. Fwiw, Enso will not be quite as cool as last year, but subsurface probably close.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Last year's 9/1 forecast for 12/24-2/25 very similar. 

cansips_T2maMean_month_us_4 (1).png

Makes sense given ENSO heaviest weighted . Throw in a good amount of upstream blocking and you would get a good look. Hopefully the QBO State along with NATL SST'S will help accomplish that. I saw a Forecaster saying 2010-11 was a favored analogue. Ryan Hall I believe. That type Pattern would be what would result with the Cansips Outlook with added blocking. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Recent Ninas have been normal to slightly above snowfall for here overall. A couple big clunkers in there too. Mostly depends on the NE PAC ridge position/orientation, and getting some luck in the NA. Cold ENSO seems to be predominant in the current regime. Probably should get used to it.

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Recent Ninas have been normal to slightly above snowfall for here overall. A couple big clunkers in there too. Mostly depends on the NE PAC ridge position/orientation, and getting some luck in the NA. Cold ENSO seems to be predominant in the current regime. Probably should get used to it.

not really overall, but i do think we are about of the insane depression stretch starting with 23-24 and 24-25. this winter should be at least okay imo. plus, we have better days ahead.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Which ones? I have been below average every Winter since 15-16, and there have been 6 La Nina's in that time (RONI). 

I said for here, meaning over here towards the coast. Places N and W of the cities haven't done as well, and part of that is the avg annual snowfall there is higher.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/31/2025 at 3:27 PM, Daniel Boone said:

If those SST'S remain pretty much as are around Newfoundland and those in the GOA warm a bit we could be looking at both. 50-50 Lows should be more prevalent. +TNH Pattern possible with the NPAC SST Profile. Let's not forget the QBO as well. 

The actual correlation to the Winter NAO consists of two area: cold up north, and warm below New Foundland correlates with Winter +NAO and warm up north and cold below New Foundland correlations with Winter -NAO. Erin really did a lot of cooling in the southern region, but it's actually a 5-month average (May-Sept), and May-Aug so far is running +NAO probability because the north part has been so cold. 

Here's the Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs -> Winter NAO correlation (default positive)

3aaaa-5.png

Here is May-Aug so far:

3-Oc-Bbp03-N1-3.png

Weak Winter +NAO signal overall. 

Edit: ^That was only August, but it does show how we are progressing lately. Here is May-Aug.. it comes out at a +0.22 DJFM mean NAO prediction

4-1-2024.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Which ones? I have been below average every Winter since 15-16, and there have been 6 La Nina's in that time (RONI). 

16-17: Slightly below avg here but above for the immediate coast with the big early Jan storm

17-18: Avg/slightly above avg snowfall here; above avg for the coast> Da bomb cyclone in Jan

21-22: Above avg snowfall for much of the coastal plain

24-25: Above avg snowfall for much of the coastal plain

Long term annual avg snowfall for my area is 18.5".. No idea what it actually is anymore, but probably anything over 16" is above.

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The actual correlation to the Winter NAO consists of two area: cold up north, and warm below New Foundland correlates with Winter +NAO and warm up north and cold below New Foundland correlations with Winter -NAO. Erin really did a lot of cooling in the southern region, but it's actually a 5-month average (May-Sept), and May-Aug so far is running +NAO probability because the north part has been so cold. 

Here's the Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs -> Winter NAO correlation (default positive)

3aaaa-5.png

Here is May-Aug so far:

3-Oc-Bbp03-N1-3.png

Weak Winter +NAO signal overall. 

Edit: ^That was only August, but it does show how we are progressing lately. Here is May-Aug.. it comes out at a +0.22 DJFM mean NAO prediction

4-1-2024.png

What look do you get with the combined QBO Status ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

What look do you get with the combined QBO Status ?

QBO actually works well with ENSO state for 10mb. El Nino/-QBO gives about 75% odds for Winter Stratosphere warmings, and La Nina/+QBO gives about 75% for Winter cold Stratosphere. Last year was Weak La Nina per RONI and with +QBO, it was one of the coldest 10mb's on record Nov-Feb. 2 years ago in -QBO/Strong El Nino we had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. ENSO and the QBO are at odds this Winter. In an unconnected ENSO state it runs about 55-60% warm 10mb for -QBO and 55-60% cold for +QBO. Remember, the QBO is a Stratosphere index, What it means at the surface depends on a lot of in between factors. I think we are pretty split this Winter on -NAO or +NAO indicators, with this recent 6-7 month consecutive +AO/+NAO usually rolling forward to the Winter for the same thing at about 0.2 correlation or 60% probability. Cold H5 during the Summer since the Arctic ice melt low in 2012 has usually put a following Winter ridge at 90N. I think we can possibly be looking at some -AO this Winter, but further south in the N. Atlantic it may be +NAO. The Stratosphere should be warm some of the time with strong -QBO in place, but that occurrence has time lag to -AO events at +15-45 days (depending when in the Winter the Stratosphere warming happens). It's actually really hard to say what XQBO will do to the pattern, since it occurs >30,000ft in the atmosphere. There is some Asia Mountain Torque possibility, which sometimes leads to +PNA, but the correlation on that is actually really weak. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eric Webb posted some preliminary thoughts. Tl;dr is more canonical Nina look than last winter but with some +TNH flavor. May average AN in the SE (where he focuses on) but with some cold shots and snow. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...