Weather Will Posted Sunday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:39 PM 4 hours ago, IronTy said: JD has a new posting about SSTs and.implications for winter: His summary so far: "Looking at years with a La Nada to weak La Nina, east QBO, negative PDO, negative MEI, positive AMO and declining solar, winter temperatures are cold." Pictures from preliminary WB Joe D'Aleo analysis; hope it's right!!!! I like the strategy of rooting for cold air and then see if we can time a low to move in while it's established. Note also WB is still watching the above normal water in the North Pacific to see what role (if it holds) it could play this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:06 PM I can buy some good cold shots this winter a lot more than I buy AN snowfall. Feels like cold+dry/warm+wet taken to 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:27 PM 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I can buy some good cold shots this winter a lot more than I buy AN snowfall. Feels like cold+dry/warm+wet taken to 11. If those SST'S remain pretty much as are around Newfoundland and those in the GOA warm a bit we could be looking at both. 50-50 Lows should be more prevalent. +TNH Pattern possible with the NPAC SST Profile. Let's not forget the QBO as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 09:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:04 PM 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: Pictures from preliminary WB Joe D'Aleo analysis; hope it's right!!!! I like the strategy of rooting for cold air and then see if we can time a low to move in while it's established. Note also WB is still watching the above normal water in the North Pacific to see what role (if it holds) it could play this winter. Being on the eastern flank of the BN temps with the Atlantic to our east looks pretty palatable to these weenie eyes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 11:31 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:31 AM New Cansips is out. Looks like it's August forecast with D-F temps at or ever so slightly AN. It may be a hair warmer than last month the further south you go. Does look dry as it did last month. Until we shake the Niña, or Niña like features equatorially, we stay on the dry side. Fwiw, it does have a Niño developing next summer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 11:49 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:49 AM 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: New Cansips is out. Looks like it's August forecast with D-F temps at or ever so slightly AN. It may be a hair warmer than last month the further south you go. Does look dry as it did last month. Until we shake the Niña, or Niña like features equatorially, we stay on the dry side. Fwiw, it does have a Niño developing next summer. Last year's 9/1 forecast for 12/24-2/25 very similar. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Monday at 01:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:32 PM 19 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I can buy some good cold shots this winter a lot more than I buy AN snowfall. Feels like cold+dry/warm+wet taken to 11. 100%. All signs point towards a predictable Nina'ish winter. There's almost always a wildcard in the general base state that surprises long rangers though. I don't have any real thoughts there. Optimist wag would be anomalous amplification of the epo ridge and downstream troughing in the east. Pessimist wag would be poor alignment in the NE pac causing a propensity to ridge in the east and a predominant storm track NW of us. I do think the AO will be half decent for the balance of met winter. Gut feelin the flip in the longer term phase bias cycle. Maybe the nao actually does something too. Kinda hand and hand there with decent Nina's. Without north Atlantic help, Northern stream stuff likes to avoid the MA. Especially further south like where i am lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:35 PM 20 hours ago, Bob Chill said: 100%. All signs point towards a predictable Nina'ish winter. There's almost always a wildcard in the general base state that surprises long rangers though. I don't have any real thoughts there. Optimist wag would be anomalous amplification of the epo ridge and downstream troughing in the east. Pessimist wag would be poor alignment in the NE pac causing a propensity to ridge in the east and a predominant storm track NW of us. I do think the AO will be half decent for the balance of met winter. Gut feelin the flip in the longer term phase bias cycle. Maybe the nao actually does something too. Kinda hand and hand there with decent Nina's. Without north Atlantic help, Northern stream stuff likes to avoid the MA. Especially further south like where i am lol I think if you liked last year, you'll like this year and vice-versa. Fwiw, Enso will not be quite as cool as last year, but subsurface probably close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 02:51 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:51 AM 14 hours ago, mitchnick said: Last year's 9/1 forecast for 12/24-2/25 very similar. Makes sense given ENSO heaviest weighted . Throw in a good amount of upstream blocking and you would get a good look. Hopefully the QBO State along with NATL SST'S will help accomplish that. I saw a Forecaster saying 2010-11 was a favored analogue. Ryan Hall I believe. That type Pattern would be what would result with the Cansips Outlook with added blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Tuesday at 11:25 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 11:25 PM Last year's 9/1 forecast for 12/24-2/25 very similar. I do like that Canada is cold. That killed our 23-24 Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted yesterday at 02:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:38 PM WB has their first preview of winter forecast up. Basically for us it's average temps with slightly above average snowfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted yesterday at 03:46 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:46 PM 1 hour ago, IronTy said: WB has their first preview of winter forecast up. Basically for us it's average temps with slightly above average snowfall. Is there a map? Can you post it? Tia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted yesterday at 04:16 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:16 PM 30 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Is there a map? Can you post it? Tia Temps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted yesterday at 04:18 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:18 PM Snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted yesterday at 05:27 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:27 PM 2 hours ago, IronTy said: WB has their first preview of winter forecast up. Basically for us it's average temps with slightly above average snowfall. I'm all for it. I think we'll have a lot of fun tracking to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 2 hours ago, IronTy said: Temps 2 hours ago, IronTy said: Snow Seems reasonable enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Recent Ninas have been normal to slightly above snowfall for here overall. A couple big clunkers in there too. Mostly depends on the NE PAC ridge position/orientation, and getting some luck in the NA. Cold ENSO seems to be predominant in the current regime. Probably should get used to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Recent Ninas have been normal to slightly above snowfall for here overall. A couple big clunkers in there too. Mostly depends on the NE PAC ridge position/orientation, and getting some luck in the NA. Cold ENSO seems to be predominant in the current regime. Probably should get used to it. not really overall, but i do think we are about of the insane depression stretch starting with 23-24 and 24-25. this winter should be at least okay imo. plus, we have better days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Recent Ninas have been normal to slightly above snowfall for here overall. Which ones? I have been below average every Winter since 15-16, and there have been 6 La Nina's in that time (RONI). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 56 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Which ones? I have been below average every Winter since 15-16, and there have been 6 La Nina's in that time (RONI). I said for here, meaning over here towards the coast. Places N and W of the cities haven't done as well, and part of that is the avg annual snowfall there is higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago On 8/31/2025 at 3:27 PM, Daniel Boone said: If those SST'S remain pretty much as are around Newfoundland and those in the GOA warm a bit we could be looking at both. 50-50 Lows should be more prevalent. +TNH Pattern possible with the NPAC SST Profile. Let's not forget the QBO as well. The actual correlation to the Winter NAO consists of two area: cold up north, and warm below New Foundland correlates with Winter +NAO and warm up north and cold below New Foundland correlations with Winter -NAO. Erin really did a lot of cooling in the southern region, but it's actually a 5-month average (May-Sept), and May-Aug so far is running +NAO probability because the north part has been so cold. Here's the Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs -> Winter NAO correlation (default positive) Here is May-Aug so far: Weak Winter +NAO signal overall. Edit: ^That was only August, but it does show how we are progressing lately. Here is May-Aug.. it comes out at a +0.22 DJFM mean NAO prediction 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Which ones? I have been below average every Winter since 15-16, and there have been 6 La Nina's in that time (RONI). 16-17: Slightly below avg here but above for the immediate coast with the big early Jan storm 17-18: Avg/slightly above avg snowfall here; above avg for the coast> Da bomb cyclone in Jan 21-22: Above avg snowfall for much of the coastal plain 24-25: Above avg snowfall for much of the coastal plain Long term annual avg snowfall for my area is 18.5".. No idea what it actually is anymore, but probably anything over 16" is above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The actual correlation to the Winter NAO consists of two area: cold up north, and warm below New Foundland correlates with Winter +NAO and warm up north and cold below New Foundland correlations with Winter -NAO. Erin really did a lot of cooling in the southern region, but it's actually a 5-month average (May-Sept), and May-Aug so far is running +NAO probability because the north part has been so cold. Here's the Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs -> Winter NAO correlation (default positive) Here is May-Aug so far: Weak Winter +NAO signal overall. Edit: ^That was only August, but it does show how we are progressing lately. Here is May-Aug.. it comes out at a +0.22 DJFM mean NAO prediction What look do you get with the combined QBO Status ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: What look do you get with the combined QBO Status ? QBO actually works well with ENSO state for 10mb. El Nino/-QBO gives about 75% odds for Winter Stratosphere warmings, and La Nina/+QBO gives about 75% for Winter cold Stratosphere. Last year was Weak La Nina per RONI and with +QBO, it was one of the coldest 10mb's on record Nov-Feb. 2 years ago in -QBO/Strong El Nino we had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. ENSO and the QBO are at odds this Winter. In an unconnected ENSO state it runs about 55-60% warm 10mb for -QBO and 55-60% cold for +QBO. Remember, the QBO is a Stratosphere index, What it means at the surface depends on a lot of in between factors. I think we are pretty split this Winter on -NAO or +NAO indicators, with this recent 6-7 month consecutive +AO/+NAO usually rolling forward to the Winter for the same thing at about 0.2 correlation or 60% probability. Cold H5 during the Summer since the Arctic ice melt low in 2012 has usually put a following Winter ridge at 90N. I think we can possibly be looking at some -AO this Winter, but further south in the N. Atlantic it may be +NAO. The Stratosphere should be warm some of the time with strong -QBO in place, but that occurrence has time lag to -AO events at +15-45 days (depending when in the Winter the Stratosphere warming happens). It's actually really hard to say what XQBO will do to the pattern, since it occurs >30,000ft in the atmosphere. There is some Asia Mountain Torque possibility, which sometimes leads to +PNA, but the correlation on that is actually really weak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Eric Webb posted some preliminary thoughts. Tl;dr is more canonical Nina look than last winter but with some +TNH flavor. May average AN in the SE (where he focuses on) but with some cold shots and snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now