Winter 2025-26

[Weather Will]

4 hours ago, IronTy said:

JD has a new posting about SSTs and.implications for winter:

 

His summary so far:

 

"Looking at years with a La Nada to weak La Nina, east QBO, negative PDO, negative MEI, positive AMO and declining solar, winter temperatures are cold."

Pictures from preliminary WB Joe D'Aleo analysis;  hope it's right!!!!  I like the strategy of rooting for cold air and then see if we can time a low to move in while it's established.   Note also WB is still watching the above normal water in the North Pacific to see what role (if it holds) it could play this winter.

[WxUSAF]

I can buy some good cold shots this winter a lot more than I buy AN snowfall. Feels like cold+dry/warm+wet taken to 11.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I can buy some good cold shots this winter a lot more than I buy AN snowfall. Feels like cold+dry/warm+wet taken to 11.

If those SST'S remain pretty much as are around Newfoundland and those in the GOA warm a bit we could be looking at both. 50-50 Lows should be more prevalent. +TNH Pattern possible with the NPAC SST Profile. Let's not forget the QBO as well. 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Pictures from preliminary WB Joe D'Aleo analysis;  hope it's right!!!!  I like the strategy of rooting for cold air and then see if we can time a low to move in while it's established.   Note also WB is still watching the above normal water in the North Pacific to see what role (if it holds) it could play this winter.

Being on the eastern flank of the BN temps with the Atlantic to our east looks pretty palatable to these weenie eyes.

[mitchnick]

New Cansips is out. Looks like it's August forecast with D-F temps at or ever so slightly AN. It may be a hair warmer than last month the further south you go. Does look dry as it did last month. Until we shake the Niña, or Niña like features equatorially, we stay on the dry side.

Fwiw, it does have a Niño developing next summer. 

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

New Cansips is out. Looks like it's August forecast with D-F temps at or ever so slightly AN. It may be a hair warmer than last month the further south you go. Does look dry as it did last month. Until we shake the Niña, or Niña like features equatorially, we stay on the dry side.

Fwiw, it does have a Niño developing next summer. 

Last year's 9/1 forecast for 12/24-2/25 very similar. 

[Bob Chill]

19 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I can buy some good cold shots this winter a lot more than I buy AN snowfall. Feels like cold+dry/warm+wet taken to 11.

100%. All signs point towards a predictable Nina'ish winter. There's almost always a wildcard in the general base state that surprises long rangers though. I don't have any real thoughts there. Optimist wag would be anomalous amplification of the epo ridge and downstream troughing in the east. Pessimist wag would be poor alignment in the NE pac causing a propensity to ridge in the east and a predominant storm track NW of us. 

I do think the AO will be half decent for the balance of met winter. Gut feelin the flip in the longer term phase bias cycle. Maybe the nao actually does something too. Kinda hand and hand there with decent Nina's. Without north Atlantic help, Northern stream stuff likes to avoid the MA. Especially further south like where i am lol

[mitchnick]

20 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

100%. All signs point towards a predictable Nina'ish winter. There's almost always a wildcard in the general base state that surprises long rangers though. I don't have any real thoughts there. Optimist wag would be anomalous amplification of the epo ridge and downstream troughing in the east. Pessimist wag would be poor alignment in the NE pac causing a propensity to ridge in the east and a predominant storm track NW of us. 

I do think the AO will be half decent for the balance of met winter. Gut feelin the flip in the longer term phase bias cycle. Maybe the nao actually does something too. Kinda hand and hand there with decent Nina's. Without north Atlantic help, Northern stream stuff likes to avoid the MA. Especially further south like where i am lol

I think if you liked last year, you'll like this year and vice-versa. Fwiw, Enso will not be quite as cool as last year, but subsurface probably close.

[Daniel Boone]

14 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Last year's 9/1 forecast for 12/24-2/25 very similar. 

Makes sense given ENSO heaviest weighted . Throw in a good amount of upstream blocking and you would get a good look. Hopefully the QBO State along with NATL SST'S will help accomplish that. I saw a Forecaster saying 2010-11 was a favored analogue. Ryan Hall I believe. That type Pattern would be what would result with the Cansips Outlook with added blocking. 

[Ji]

Last year's 9/1 forecast for 12/24-2/25 very similar. 

I do like that Canada is cold. That killed our 23-24 Nino

[IronTy]

WB has their first preview of winter forecast up.  Basically for us it's average temps with slightly above average snowfall.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

WB has their first preview of winter forecast up.  Basically for us it's average temps with slightly above average snowfall.

Is there a map? Can you post it? Tia

[IronTy]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Is there a map? Can you post it? Tia

Temps

[IronTy]

Snow

[bncho]

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

WB has their first preview of winter forecast up.  Basically for us it's average temps with slightly above average snowfall.

 I'm all for it. I think we'll have a lot of fun tracking to do.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

Temps

 

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

Snow

Seems reasonable enough

[CAPE]

Recent Ninas have been normal to slightly above snowfall for here overall. A couple big clunkers in there too. Mostly depends on the NE PAC ridge position/orientation, and getting some luck in the NA. Cold ENSO seems to be predominant in the current regime. Probably should get used to it.

[bncho]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Recent Ninas have been normal to slightly above snowfall for here overall. A couple big clunkers in there too. Mostly depends on the NE PAC ridge position/orientation, and getting some luck in the NA. Cold ENSO seems to be predominant in the current regime. Probably should get used to it.

not really overall, but i do think we are about of the insane depression stretch starting with 23-24 and 24-25. this winter should be at least okay imo. plus, we have better days ahead.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Recent Ninas have been normal to slightly above snowfall for here overall. 

Which ones? I have been below average every Winter since 15-16, and there have been 6 La Nina's in that time (RONI). 

[CAPE]

56 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Which ones? I have been below average every Winter since 15-16, and there have been 6 La Nina's in that time (RONI). 

I said for here, meaning over here towards the coast. Places N and W of the cities haven't done as well, and part of that is the avg annual snowfall there is higher.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 8/31/2025 at 3:27 PM, Daniel Boone said:

If those SST'S remain pretty much as are around Newfoundland and those in the GOA warm a bit we could be looking at both. 50-50 Lows should be more prevalent. +TNH Pattern possible with the NPAC SST Profile. Let's not forget the QBO as well. 

The actual correlation to the Winter NAO consists of two area: cold up north, and warm below New Foundland correlates with Winter +NAO and warm up north and cold below New Foundland correlations with Winter -NAO. Erin really did a lot of cooling in the southern region, but it's actually a 5-month average (May-Sept), and May-Aug so far is running +NAO probability because the north part has been so cold. 

Here's the Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs -> Winter NAO correlation (default positive)

Here is May-Aug so far:

Weak Winter +NAO signal overall. 

Edit: ^That was only August, but it does show how we are progressing lately. Here is May-Aug.. it comes out at a +0.22 DJFM mean NAO prediction