Winter 2025-26

[Weather Will]

4 hours ago, IronTy said:

JD has a new posting about SSTs and.implications for winter:

 

His summary so far:

 

"Looking at years with a La Nada to weak La Nina, east QBO, negative PDO, negative MEI, positive AMO and declining solar, winter temperatures are cold."

Pictures from preliminary WB Joe D'Aleo analysis;  hope it's right!!!!  I like the strategy of rooting for cold air and then see if we can time a low to move in while it's established.   Note also WB is still watching the above normal water in the North Pacific to see what role (if it holds) it could play this winter.

[WxUSAF]

I can buy some good cold shots this winter a lot more than I buy AN snowfall. Feels like cold+dry/warm+wet taken to 11.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I can buy some good cold shots this winter a lot more than I buy AN snowfall. Feels like cold+dry/warm+wet taken to 11.

If those SST'S remain pretty much as are around Newfoundland and those in the GOA warm a bit we could be looking at both. 50-50 Lows should be more prevalent. +TNH Pattern possible with the NPAC SST Profile. Let's not forget the QBO as well. 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Pictures from preliminary WB Joe D'Aleo analysis;  hope it's right!!!!  I like the strategy of rooting for cold air and then see if we can time a low to move in while it's established.   Note also WB is still watching the above normal water in the North Pacific to see what role (if it holds) it could play this winter.

Being on the eastern flank of the BN temps with the Atlantic to our east looks pretty palatable to these weenie eyes.

[mitchnick]

New Cansips is out. Looks like it's August forecast with D-F temps at or ever so slightly AN. It may be a hair warmer than last month the further south you go. Does look dry as it did last month. Until we shake the Niña, or Niña like features equatorially, we stay on the dry side.

Fwiw, it does have a Niño developing next summer. 

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

New Cansips is out. Looks like it's August forecast with D-F temps at or ever so slightly AN. It may be a hair warmer than last month the further south you go. Does look dry as it did last month. Until we shake the Niña, or Niña like features equatorially, we stay on the dry side.

Fwiw, it does have a Niño developing next summer. 

Last year's 9/1 forecast for 12/24-2/25 very similar. 

[Bob Chill]

19 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I can buy some good cold shots this winter a lot more than I buy AN snowfall. Feels like cold+dry/warm+wet taken to 11.

100%. All signs point towards a predictable Nina'ish winter. There's almost always a wildcard in the general base state that surprises long rangers though. I don't have any real thoughts there. Optimist wag would be anomalous amplification of the epo ridge and downstream troughing in the east. Pessimist wag would be poor alignment in the NE pac causing a propensity to ridge in the east and a predominant storm track NW of us. 

I do think the AO will be half decent for the balance of met winter. Gut feelin the flip in the longer term phase bias cycle. Maybe the nao actually does something too. Kinda hand and hand there with decent Nina's. Without north Atlantic help, Northern stream stuff likes to avoid the MA. Especially further south like where i am lol

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

100%. All signs point towards a predictable Nina'ish winter. There's almost always a wildcard in the general base state that surprises long rangers though. I don't have any real thoughts there. Optimist wag would be anomalous amplification of the epo ridge and downstream troughing in the east. Pessimist wag would be poor alignment in the NE pac causing a propensity to ridge in the east and a predominant storm track NW of us. 

I do think the AO will be half decent for the balance of met winter. Gut feelin the flip in the longer term phase bias cycle. Maybe the nao actually does something too. Kinda hand and hand there with decent Nina's. Without north Atlantic help, Northern stream stuff likes to avoid the MA. Especially further south like where i am lol

I think if you like last year, you'll like this year and vice-versa. Fwiw, Enso will not be quite as cool as last year, but subsurface probably close.

[Daniel Boone]

14 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Last year's 9/1 forecast for 12/24-2/25 very similar. 

Makes sense given ENSO heaviest weighted . Throw in a good amount of upstream blocking and you would get a good look. Hopefully the QBO State along with NATL SST'S will help accomplish that. I saw a Forecaster saying 2010-11 was a favored analogue. Ryan Hall I believe. That type Pattern would be what would result with the Cansips Outlook with added blocking.