George BM Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: The volcano eruption will save us That's right Aldie man. Use your power to get us another major volcanic eruption... preferably at least a high-end VEI 6/ low-end VEI 7. I'll be checking the news throughout the evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 On 6/17/2025 at 6:12 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: So do you think we've permanently lost the 1996/2003/2016 level storms? No, not like that. Imho- record breakers are more likely than less likely. Something will line up just right and put down insane totals before long. Juice is real and prolific qpf makers in general are on the increase. Bread butter frequency is what is worrisome. The punch of the northern jet seems to be retreating on avg and south of the M/D never had a lot of room to spare even in the better times of decades past. Lack of clippers is a good example of what I'm talking about among other things. 2014-15 was 10 years ago already. Seems nearly impossible to get a run of clippers and overrunners since. The 4 decades before that had plenty. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 14 hours ago, Bob Chill said: No, not like that. Imho- record breakers are more likely than less likely. Something will line up just right and put down insane totals before long. Juice is real and prolific qpf makers in general are on the increase. Bread butter frequency is what is worrisome. The punch of the northern jet seems to be retreating on avg and south of the M/D never had a lot of room to spare even in the better times of decades past. Lack of clippers is a good example of what I'm talking about among other things. 2014-15 was 10 years ago already. Seems nearly impossible to get a run of clippers and overrunners since. The 4 decades before that had plenty. I second this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 are we already trying to skip this winter and wait for the 26-27 nino? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 20 hours ago, Bob Chill said: No, not like that. Imho- record breakers are more likely than less likely. Something will line up just right and put down insane totals before long. Juice is real and prolific qpf makers in general are on the increase. Bread butter frequency is what is worrisome. The punch of the northern jet seems to be retreating on avg and south of the M/D never had a lot of room to spare even in the better times of decades past. Lack of clippers is a good example of what I'm talking about among other things. 2014-15 was 10 years ago already. Seems nearly impossible to get a run of clippers and overrunners since. The 4 decades before that had plenty. More likely is relative imo. We are on an incredible fail streak right now. Especially out here where it is SUPPOSED TO SNOW in the winter. And maybe that is the deal. The fringes have become the same as the cities. And you need to be way out at elevations that no one wants to live at. As far as big storms go? No Idea. IMO and MO only the Mid Atlantic cold anomaly is F'ing with our weather HERE. The ocean currents are all screwed up compared to historically. No clue what that means for us anymore. Also volcanism is starting to increase all over the planet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 On 6/17/2025 at 6:12 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: So do you think we've permanently lost the 1996/2003/2016 level storms? Bro. How do make a post naming years and ignore 09/10 in that post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Bro. How do make a post naming years and ignore 09/10 in that post? Because 09/10 is a once in a generation type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Because 09/10 is a once in a generation type setup. 2016 was a once in Millennium storm here. 40 inches from a single storm is outrageous. And no chance I live to see it again. Yet you included that.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Sunday at 02:53 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:53 AM We are due. Nor'easters will clobber DCA with heavy snows and Vodka cold, over and over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Sunday at 02:56 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:56 AM On 6/19/2025 at 5:18 PM, clskinsfan said: More likely is relative imo. We are on an incredible fail streak right now. Especially out here where it is SUPPOSED TO SNOW in the winter. And maybe that is the deal. The fringes have become the same as the cities. And you need to be way out at elevations that no one wants to live at. As far as big storms go? No Idea. IMO and MO only the Mid Atlantic cold anomaly is F'ing with our weather HERE. The ocean currents are all screwed up compared to historically. No clue what that means for us anymore. Also volcanism is starting to increase all over the planet as well. You guys are gonna get your cold. You are gonna get your snow, too. Starting in 2030. I'll be way too old. But get ready. Buy 50 Jebman Shovels, several snowblowers and get some construction equipment. You're gonnabe charging exorbitant rates for snow removal. You guys are gonna get so damn tired of snow you will move south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 02:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:37 AM We are really going -PDO If this keeps up, the July monthly may come close to -3! The further into the Summer you go, the stronger the Jan-Feb PNA correlation is to PDO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 02:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:40 AM Good thing it's not Winter.. this is quite a streak of bad indices: June will be the 5th month in a row with +NAO 4th straight month of +AO 4th straight month of -PNA The roll forward-combined of these three over a 4-month period looks like this for the following Winter (DJFM) (colored is 53-55% probability): And now June will be the 9th straight month of +SOI.. this tells me that the atmosphere is not in a state of major change. Recent analogs could be better ones going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 23 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We are really going -PDO If this keeps up, the July monthly may come close to -3! The further into the Summer you go, the stronger the Jan-Feb PNA correlation is to PDO 23 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Good thing it's not Winter.. this is quite a streak of bad indices: June will be the 5th month in a row with +NAO 4th straight month of +AO 4th straight month of -PNA The roll forward-combined of these three over a 4-month period looks like this for the following Winter (DJFM) (colored is 53-55% probability): And now June will be the 9th straight month of +SOI.. this tells me that the atmosphere is not in a state of major change. Recent analogs could be better ones going forward. How likely is a 19-20, 22-23 redux? I only ask because I have a theory that starting with 2016-17 every 3rd winter is a snowless torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 2025-26 is going to be a snowFULL FREEZE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: How likely is a 19-20, 22-23 redux? I only ask because I have a theory that starting with 2016-17 every 3rd winter is a snowless torch. I would say that all the analogs from 16-17 on have 2x the weight of one's before it. Recent, non-strong ENSO probably 3x (18-19, 19-20, 22-23, 24-25) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago More on how the Winter PNA correlates with the PDO the further into the year you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago This air temp correlation is actually high for something that is not over-lapping. Negative PDO is opposite of this map (but both phases are considered in the composite) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago decent -PDO in the Fall + global warming probably gives us a 85% chance of an above normal temperature Winter. of course last year broke that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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