May 2025

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

18z NAM is MUCH wetter for he tristate compared to 12z for the first round. 

The north trend commences...

[vegan_edible]

33 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

looks like my hoodie wearing may come to a abrupt end next week or maybe i will just leave the hoodie unzipped instead something to ponder on these next few days..

glad to hear it:)

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

glad to hear it:)

I'm excited that our forecast is rapidly changing to both hotter AND drier once June begins.  I wouldn't mind it if it didn't rain again until September.

 

[donsutherland1]

Showers are likely tomorrow into Thursday. An additional round of showers and thundershowers is possible on Saturday. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail through the week.

Meanwhile daily record and possible monthly record heat could develop for Friday and Saturday in such cities as Redding and Sacramento.

June looks to be warmer than normal on the CFSv2. However, just as had been the case for May, the AI guidance is notably cooler than the conventional models.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +29.36 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.171 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 74% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.7° (0.5° below normal).

 

[steve392]

This rain system looks like it is just sitting over that area and not moving at all. 

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, steve392 said:

This rain system looks like it is just sitting over that area and not moving at all. 

Models don't really have it lifting northeastward until midnight or beyond. 

[SACRUS]

 

Today's highs

 

LGA: 76
EWR: 76
TEB: 76
New Brnswck: 75
ISP: 75
NYC: 74
PHL: 74
BLM: 73
JFK: 73
ACY: 72
TTN: 72

[SACRUS]

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Much slower/drier on the nam

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

Models don't really have it lifting northeastward until midnight or beyond. 

There's going to be a major break between the two systems and it looks like the sun will come out Thursday afternoon just in time to see Manhattanhenge.

You have to treat this like two systems not one.  There will be a period of rain Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning, then a break where the skies will clear for the afternoon.  And then another period of rain Friday evening into Saturday morning.

 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm excited that our forecast is rapidly changing to both hotter AND drier once June begins.  I wouldn't mind it if it didn't rain again until September.

 

All this low pressure in the Northeast could continue to have a say. While it does look like we will see a warm up first week of June, the higher end heat potential may remain capped since models are now coming around to an upper low lingering nearby.

So we probably see a return back to 80s. But not sure if the first 90s of the season will occur if there is too much onshore flow. Perhaps, the interior sections of NJ would have the best shot. This is looking like another over the top warm up. The most impressive temperature departures may go to our north again. 
 

Upper low lingering nearby first week of June

 

 

[Sundog]

9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Much slower/drier on the nam

The NAM never changes its stripes.

[Sundog]

All models still bring between 0.5 and 0.75 inches of rain into the NYC area with this first round.

[SACRUS]

 

58 / 53 cloudy light rain.    Rain Wed - Sat totaling 1.00 - 2.40 in the highest locations with the heaviest in 2 timeframes today , break Thursday with mainly light rain and then Friday evening into Saturday with the heaviest portion. Clouds clear on Sunday.

Warmth and heights rising into the east - still a tendency coming around to past June heat periods with onshore flow keeping the warmest - hottest west of the coast / inland starting on / around 6/5.  Overall warmer with chance first chance of heat first inland then area into the second week 9th. Should also be drier but remain with rain chances from storms.

 

[SACRUS]

52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All this low pressure in the Northeast could continue to have a say. While it does look like we will see a warm up first week of June, the higher end heat potential may remain capped since models are now coming around to an upper low lingering nearby.

So we probably see a return back to 80s. But not sure if the first 90s of the season will occur if there is too much onshore flow. Perhaps, the interior sections of NJ would have the best shot. This is looking like another over the top warm up. The most impressive temperature departures may go to our north again. 
 

Upper low lingering nearby first week of June

 

 

 

Emerging more prominently last night, that onshore tendency - EUro cuts off the trough under the ridge into the sotheast and gfs looks like the eps.  We have seen this progression much of the last 5-7 years.   Heat takes a week or so to get past inland areas. overall ridging and much warmer into the area.  

[Monty]

High pressure doing work. Solid wall blocking the advance into CNJ. Rain finally moving in. 

[Sundog]

12z NAM is wetter again compared to 6z:

[psv88]

Just had 3500 sq feet of sod laid down. Need rain and cool

[Sundog]

There definitely is some northeastward push in the last few frames on radar.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 96 (2016)
NYC: 94 (1959)
LGA: 92 (2016)
JFK: 91 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 42 (1961)
NYC: 43 (1961)
LGA: 44 (1961)
JFK: 44 (1961)


Historical:

 

1877 - A "terrific" two day long sandstorm (sand) blasted Yuma, AZ. (28th-29th) (The Weather Channel)

1880: Savoy, TX was hit by an F4 tornado. 14 people were killed and 60 others were injured. It leveled the entire business and northeast residential sections. The tornado was described as "a funnel blazing with balls of fire".
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1896: F3 tornadoes skipped through Montgomery and Bucks counties in Pennsylvania, then across Mercer and Monmouth counties in New Jersey from south of Ambler, to Jarrrettstown south of Hatboro, near Langhorne, then crossed the Delaware River, 4 miles south of Trenton, NJ. Damage was done to businesses at White Horse and Allentown, NJ. Losses totaled over $200,000 dollars. At least 16 barns were destroyed and all of the 4 deaths may have been in barns or stables, 2 in each Pennsylvania County. 15 other people were injured.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1942 - The latest snowstorm of record for the state of Iowa left ten inches at LeMars, eight inches at Cherokee, and 7.5 inches at Waukon. Afternoon highs were in the lower 30s in parts of northwestern Iowa. (The Weather Channel)

1947 - A storm produced heavy snow across Wisconsin, with ten inches reported at Gay Mills. The snow damaged fruit and other trees, and downed power lines. The storm was followed by the coldest weather of the month for much of the High Plains Region and Missouri Valley. Williston ND reported a low of 21 degrees the morning of the 28th, and the next morning Cheyenne WY reported a morning low of 16 above zero. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced torrential rains in Oklahoma and northern Texas. Lake Altus, OK, was deluged with nine inches of rain. Up to eight inches drenched northern Texas, and baseball size hail was reported north of Seminole and at Knickerbocker. Ten to 13 inch rains soaked central Oklahoma the last five days of May resulting in an estimated 65 million dollars damage, and forcing several thousand persons to evacuate their homes, many by boat or helicopter. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A sharp cold front began to usher cold, wet and windy weather into the western U.S. Thunderstorms in the Great Plains Region produced wind gusts to 80 mph near Brookings, SD. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably hot weather continued in Florida. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 98 degrees at Lakeland, FL, was their fifth in a row. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Florida late in the day, with golf ball size hail reported at Kissimmee. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Two to five inches of rain over southeastern Ohio on the 28th and 29th capped an exceptionally wet month of May, and triggered widespread flooding. Flooding which resulted claimed three lives, and caused millions of dollars damage. Numerous roads in southeast Ohio were flooded and impassable, and many other roads were blocked by landslides. (Storm Data)

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, Sundog said:

There definitely is some northeastward push in the last few frames on radar.

Still have filtered sun here-dry air winning

[Poker2015]

On and off light rain the last 15 mins here.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Emerging more prominently last night, that onshore tendency - EUro cuts off the trough under the ridge into the sotheast and gfs looks like the eps.  We have seen this progression much of the last 5-7 years.   Heat takes a week or so to get past inland areas. overall ridging and much warmer into the area.  

it wouldn't matter anyway.  Right now the ground is too wet.  It wouldn't hit 90 with an offshore flow either.  The real key is the emerging drier sunnier pattern starting at the beginning of June to get away from this abnormally wet May.  The drier weather will dry out the ground and be the appetizer for our first heatwave which will happen starting around June 20th.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

All this low pressure in the Northeast could continue to have a say. While it does look like we will see a warm up first week of June, the higher end heat potential may remain capped since models are now coming around to an upper low lingering nearby.

So we probably see a return back to 80s. But not sure if the first 90s of the season will occur if there is too much onshore flow. Perhaps, the interior sections of NJ would have the best shot. This is looking like another over the top warm up. The most impressive temperature departures may go to our north again. 
 

Upper low lingering nearby first week of June

 

 

Like I wrote to Tony, an offshore flow wouldn't make much of a difference with all the soggy ground, Chris.

It wouldn't hit 90 with an offshore flow either.  The real key is the emerging drier sunnier pattern starting at the beginning of June to get away from this abnormally wet May.  The drier weather will dry out the ground and be the appetizer for our first heatwave which will happen starting around June 20th.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Like I wrote to Tony, an offshore flow wouldn't make much of a difference with all the soggy ground, Chris.

It wouldn't hit 90 with an offshore flow either.  The real key is the emerging drier sunnier pattern starting at the beginning of June to get away from this abnormally wet May.  The drier weather will dry out the ground and be the appetizer for our first heatwave which will happen starting around June 20th.

That’s not correct. Downsloping winds are compressional, heating and drying the air. So an offshore flow in this area, given high enough 850 temps is capable of 90 degree temps no matter how high the soil moisture content is. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s not correct. Downsloping winds are compressional, heating and drying the air. So an offshore flow in this area, given high enough 850 temps is capable of 90 degree temps no matter how high the soil moisture content is. 

Not this soon after so much wetness.  Maybe in July, but it doesn't happen in early June.  There is a seismic shift by June 20th, which is why 90 degree temperatures become much more common for us coastal people by June 20th as opposed to the first week of June.

One thing I really like about our area is that our weather closely follows the real start to the seasons.  We usually get our first snowfall around December 20th, our last snowfall around March 20th, our first 90 degree day around June 20th and our last 90 degree day around September 20th.

 

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Not this soon after so much wetness.  Maybe in July, but it doesn't happen in early June.  There is a seismic shift by June 20th, which is why 90 degree temperatures become much more common for us coastal people by June 20th as opposed to the first week of June.

One thing I really like about our area is that our weather closely follows the real start to the seasons.  We usually get our first snowfall around December 20th, our last snowfall around March 20th and our first 90 degree day around June 20th and our last 90 degree day before September 20th.

 

Its happened before with the down sloping or even a SW wind with the right airmass in place which would be 850MB >16-17C.  The park is a whole another story but regardless, the flow looks to be with an easterly component and with that the heat would be focused inland.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Its happened before with the down sloping or even a SW wind with the right airmass in place which would be 850MB >16-17C.  The park is a whole another story but regardless, the flow looks to be with an easterly component and with that the heat would be focused inland.

SW wind wouldn't get this area to 90 before July, it needs to be a due west or northwest wind.  JFK very rarely has gotten to 90 before June 20th even on a westerly wind.  Upper 80s, yes, but 90 is usually closer to the summer solstice unless it's a really hot summer (like 2010), which has also been dry in the spring.

 

[Cyg]

This rain is taking forever to get here.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

SW wind wouldn't get this area to 90 before July, it needs to be a due west or northwest wind.  JFK very rarely has gotten to 90 before June 20th even on a westerly wind.  Upper 80s, yes, but 90 is usually closer to the summer solstice unless it's a really hot summer (like 2010), which has also been dry in the spring.

 

The developing pall of smoke might help to mute temperatures somewhat as well. Will have to watch and see if it spreads any further east and south.